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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,721
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:16am Nov 28, 2012 9:16am
Quoting KADC
BNN (Business News Network) said there is an investigation of a possible "computer error" at a major bank with regard to rolling over options. The tendency of the markets is to sell the rumour and buy the fact, so if this was caused by an "error" expect an equally quick (and equally unpredictable) reversal which will coincidentally pay off tremendously for the bank in question as "errors" like this always do.
Don't seem to me like an "computer error"...if its true, it will be rectified by now.
  • #21,722
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:20am Nov 28, 2012 9:20am
Quoting KADC
Markets are falling across the board so gold could very well keep falling if this fall turns into a crash. There is always significant risk when trading which is why I recommend being overly cautious. It is better to miss an opportunity to make profit than lose money.

That said, it is very rare (possibly unprecedented) for gold to be lower in December than it was in November, so barring a market crash I think the rising trendline will hold as support.
interesting about price in november and december....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #21,723
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:57am Nov 28, 2012 9:57am
http://news.sharpspixley.com/article...unnit-/145195/

And from TF:

"This is all just manipulative bull####. The likely cause of the drop was the deliberate and manipulative unwinding of a Dec position, probably a spread trade. The manipulator takes the long side off all at once and then looks to cover the short side at a later time after price has been driven $20+ lower. In this case, the manipulator gets the added benefit of the momo-HFTs chasing price lower because of the breach of the 50-DMA. Now down $30, the manipulator can begin to cover the short side for considerably less money than it would have cost if he had done the whole thing instantaneously."

beeb
  • #21,724
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:14am Nov 28, 2012 10:14am
Quoting multi888
Don't seem to me like an "computer error"...if its true, it will be rectified by now.
There was an actual computer error in September which took a full eight hours to rectify, but this kind of "error", if that's what it was, won't be fixed until, coincidentally, gold falls to a predetermined price. Regardless, all we can do is be as prepared as possible for movement in either direction and act accordingly.

I've been out of gold since $1745. I cancelled my $1735 buy order to put my money elsewhere thinking it would sit there until at least the end of the week before going back up, so I got lucky there; but this swing in currencies has taken out nearly all the profits that I made not holding gold so I'm standing aside (except for a long in CAD/JPY and EUR/JPY with a stop at break-even) until this nonsense resolves itself.

I think I should have exited everything when my near-term Forex RSI lines were broken and gone with Beebs chart and bought gold at $1705.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,725
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:21am Nov 28, 2012 10:21am
Quoting KADC
I think I should have exited everything when my near-term Forex RSI lines were broken and gone with Beebs chart and bought gold at $1705.
Jeez - please don't just trust my charts - they work for me but they may not work for you.....

That chart was one of a number that I am running - and a confluence of factors gave a good entry which is now stopped above b/e in case of any more shennanigans......

I certainly would not normally advise bottom fishing after a single bar drop like that. Green circles show reactions to the plotted blue line, top purple line is entry and bottom purple line is original stop....

http://www.screencast.com/t/lZzW2aPUie

beeb
  • #21,726
  • Edited 10:43am Nov 28, 2012 10:31am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting beeb
Jeez - please don't just trust my charts - they work for me but they may not work for you..... beeb
I've got the same parallels on my chart but I've been focussing more on RSI lately with very good success; however, worrying about another $10 drop in gold after a drop of $40 from where I got out just seems more greedy than cautious at this point. If gold tops $1720 I think it will keep climbing rather than return to $1706, so instead of gaining another $10 for my entry point waiting for $1696 I'll have given up $15 ...not my best move to be sure.

Edit: Also, I should have paid more attention to silver which clearly has no intention of falling.

At least I'm making half of that back in my long vs Yen positions if gold does continue higher.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,727
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:36pm Nov 28, 2012 8:36pm
this man says this ...that man says that ... whose guess is right ? sigh !


If the Fed continues its massively accommodative monetary policy, gold prices conceivably could move higher. But I think that would require some evidence that inflation is picking up, and that evidence is still lacking. In my view, gold is essentially priced to a significant increase in inflation already. The premium that investors are willing to pay for gold today (defined as the amount by which today's price exceeds the average historical real price) is almost as much as it was in early 1980, when inflation had already attained double-digit levels.

By this same logic, if the Fed were to even suggest that it is contemplating a reversal of its quantitative easing (which could be accomplished by raising the rate it pays on reserves, or by draining reserves), then gold would be quite vulnerable to losses. Gold today is a very expensive inflation hedge.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1029791-gold-looks-expensive
  • #21,728
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:04pm Nov 28, 2012 11:04pm
attempting a bear flag on the 1hr chart ?
  • #21,729
  • Nov 29, 2012 1:47am Nov 29, 2012 1:47am
Quoting TheArcher
this man says this ...that man says that ... whose guess is right ? sigh !
If you have to listen to the talking heads I suggest you read their back copy and find out how right they have been in the past.....

beeb
  • #21,730
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:05am Nov 29, 2012 6:05am
Quoting beeb
If you have to listen to the talking heads I suggest you read their back copy and find out how right they have been in the past.....

beeb

... for research , name a few who had been consistently right to get the ball rolling ..
  • #21,731
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:12am Nov 29, 2012 6:12am
Quoting TheArcher
... for research , name a few who had been consistently right to get the ball rolling ..
Sorry - I don't pay any attention to them - I prefer charting

beeb
  • #21,732
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:10am Nov 29, 2012 7:10am
Quoting beeb
Sorry - I don't pay any attention to them - I prefer charting

beeb
****** verrryyy broad grinn *****

  • #21,733
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:01am Nov 29, 2012 8:01am
If anyone is interested in my methodology there is a free webinar next week that would be worth attending:

http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/4770

Note that there will also be an intro by Andrew Maguire (google him if needed)

beeb

Usual disclaimer - no pecuniary or other interest blah blah blah......
  • #21,734
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:41am Nov 29, 2012 8:41am
silver actually returned to weekly highs, but gold still climbing.

does it mean forthcoming jump to highs?
  • #21,735
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:17am Nov 29, 2012 10:17am
Quoting eugenyk
silver actually returned to weekly highs, but gold still climbing.

does it mean forthcoming jump to highs?
it could mean that silver is still undervalue and its just trying to catch up
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #21,736
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:21am Nov 29, 2012 11:21am
Quoting eugenyk
silver actually returned to weekly highs, but gold still climbing.

does it mean forthcoming jump to highs?
it could mean, ''come on and buy gold'' , but i mean '' no thanks''
  • #21,737
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:39am Nov 29, 2012 11:39am
Quoting prototip
it could mean, ''come on and buy gold'' , but i mean '' no thanks''
But don't you think Gold is making up for yesterday's big drop? Also the fiscal cliff continues to haunt the US. i do think there is some steam still left, well until early December.
  • #21,738
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:39am Nov 29, 2012 11:39am
Quoting prototip
it could mean, ''come on and buy gold'' , but i mean '' no thanks''
sometimes it is not necessary to over-complicate

maybe she is waiting for somebody to load

it looks like she is preparing for the jump as a wild cat

however, i can mistake
  • #21,739
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:57am Nov 29, 2012 11:57am
there is no safe haven need anymore, inflation is still in price, asia and europe end their deeps... game over for a long time...
  • #21,740
  • Nov 29, 2012 12:09pm Nov 29, 2012 12:09pm
SI 20 mins - LP to UP:

http://www.screencast.com/t/Qi97X4NZjljJ

beeb
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