XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #21,441
- Oct 25, 2012 11:43am Oct 25, 2012 11:43am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
- #21,442
- Edited 12:18pm Oct 25, 2012 12:07pm | Edited 12:18pm
Hi KADC,
I always love to read your analysis here. Apologies if my request sounds odd. Could you please explain further on what to watchout for on RSI. How do i determine possible start and end of a trend? How do i use trend lines on RSI?
Thanks.
Red lines indicate bull movement, and blue indicate bear movement.
Draw a trend-line connecting valleys for bull trends and peaks for bear trends. When the trend-line is broken it confirms a change in trend as opposed to just a bounce. Now you could ask what's the point when you can (and I did) draw similar trend-lines in the price-action, but RSI is just one tool in your arsenal and is intended to work in conjunction with other indicators.
For example in both cases USD bounced off channel resistance/support, had candles confirming the move, and the action crossed fractal trend-lines. The bull trend pull-back corresponded with prior resistance levels and the bear trend reversal was at the 38.2% retracement of the prior completed move. These are the sorts of confluence I look for when making my decisions.
Note that for the bull trend, when RSI crossed over it was above 70 and resulted in a 38.2% retracement (and an argument could be made that it resumed the bull trend afterwards), whereas the bear trend crossed over at 45, much closer to 50 which is "equilibrium", which resulted in a 76.4% retracement (so far). The closer to 50 the crossover occurs typically results in a stronger move, whereas if the crossover occurs when RSI is above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), the move will be weaker.
Remember these are just rules of thumb, not guarantees.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #21,448
- Oct 25, 2012 9:24pm Oct 25, 2012 9:24pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
Personally if I was short from your area - appx 1750 I think - no need to disclose,
I would likely wait to see if we do hit 1685 and how friday goes.
Also wait to see some confirmation like retaken horizontal supports, longer term TLs and SMA breaches - etc. even if you don't get out at the bottom.
It was a good trade at that.
I would likely wait to see if we do hit 1685 and how friday goes.
Also wait to see some confirmation like retaken horizontal supports, longer term TLs and SMA breaches - etc. even if you don't get out at the bottom.
It was a good trade at that.
I see it, but I'm not quite ready to believe it. I hope I'm not just stubbornly sticking to my analysis, but I'm still holding onto my short. I almost pulled the trigger when we touched $1700 twice yesterday ...and honestly I wish I had rode it long until gold double-tapped 61.8% at $1718 then re-shorted ...but of course hindsight is 20/20 and there was no way of knowing there'd have been a clear exit and entry point so I did the right thing according to the strategy I was following.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #21,449
- Oct 25, 2012 9:29pm Oct 25, 2012 9:29pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #21,450
- Oct 26, 2012 1:05am Oct 26, 2012 1:05am
Personally if I was short from your area - appx 1750 I think - no need to disclose,
I would likely wait to see if we do hit 1685 and how friday goes.
Also wait to see some confirmation like retaken horizontal supports, longer term TLs and SMA breaches - etc. even if you don't get out at the bottom.
It was a good trade at that.
One of the analysts I read mentioned yesterday that he thought this looked (Forex-wise) like a classic risk-aversion/take-profit Friday set-up. I jumped the gun thinking this would happen Wednesday (I'm sure I had a good reason at the time) and lost some of my conviction that gold and silver would fall when there was a minor rally across the board instead.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's the end of the month, USD index is once again beating at the doorstep of 80.2, risk-on pairs are losing ground to USD and the Yen, so I think today will indeed be a day for shorting just about everything and gold and silver will finally hit bottom; then it will be time to reverse positions next week and go long as we start the November rally.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
Volume coming in on 10min GC and SI
http://www.screencast.com/t/nlr7aETbjAbr
beeb
Still waiting for an apology
Education has its reward, ignorance has its price.
- #21,456
- Oct 26, 2012 8:24am Oct 26, 2012 8:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
Love the new indicator
Guess that's how it's gonna be....
beeb
- #21,457
- Edited 2:48pm Oct 26, 2012 12:20pm | Edited 2:48pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
Found this right on the front page scrolling down a bit. looks like he hijacks a bunch of threads from FF and tweets them to his "trading" blog.....
Link to this crap - don't want to link his thread here. sorry mariano....
See how this goes:
Mariano FSB Trading plagiarises content without asking permission.....
beeb
EDIT - Excellent, the twats are tweeting it to the world
- #21,458
- Oct 26, 2012 10:56pm Oct 26, 2012 10:56pm
I went to bed shortly after my last post and I see my hopes that we'd end the week some clear direction came to naught. Market indices, metals, and Forex all ended the day roughly where they began.
I had two charts open on my laptop, and since it's actually much easier to grab charts here than on my desktop I thought I'd post them.
US dollar index - rejected from channel resistance, closed above 80 with an indecisive candle, still in the bull fractal channel, RSI near equilibrium ...no idea where it's heading next week.
Gold - I read/heard/watched a few more analysts talking about the 200 DMA/50% Fibonacci retracement, but it has to breach the 38.2% first. Regardless, as long as it remains in the bear channel my bias is that the correction hasn't ended. If it hits the support line, depending on where it happens, I'll either exit or reverse my position. The purple pivot line dates back to December, but it wasn't until one of the boys at DailyFX pointed out how price action reacted to it since last week that I paid it any attention. It likely correlates to one of Beeb's pitchforks as well.
...
XTrade, though the ForexPros interactive charts have no accuracy for maintaining anything you draw if you zoom in or out or change time scales or detach the chart, it does maintain your information if you change instruments which is nice, and there's a full complement of studies, et al so it's what I'm using on my laptop until I find something better.
I had two charts open on my laptop, and since it's actually much easier to grab charts here than on my desktop I thought I'd post them.
US dollar index - rejected from channel resistance, closed above 80 with an indecisive candle, still in the bull fractal channel, RSI near equilibrium ...no idea where it's heading next week.
Gold - I read/heard/watched a few more analysts talking about the 200 DMA/50% Fibonacci retracement, but it has to breach the 38.2% first. Regardless, as long as it remains in the bear channel my bias is that the correction hasn't ended. If it hits the support line, depending on where it happens, I'll either exit or reverse my position. The purple pivot line dates back to December, but it wasn't until one of the boys at DailyFX pointed out how price action reacted to it since last week that I paid it any attention. It likely correlates to one of Beeb's pitchforks as well.
...
XTrade, though the ForexPros interactive charts have no accuracy for maintaining anything you draw if you zoom in or out or change time scales or detach the chart, it does maintain your information if you change instruments which is nice, and there's a full complement of studies, et al so it's what I'm using on my laptop until I find something better.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
