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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,401
  • Oct 21, 2012 6:00pm Oct 21, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting KADC
That sounds virtually identical my stop strategy (when I'm using stops).

My problem has been that, with unholy frequency, wherever I set my stops, which is always far enough past a Fibonacci, resistance/support, or psychological level that it should be "safe", that point will be, to the pip, precisely where the price will spike up or down to before promptly returning.

The big boys know where to move the market to hit out the retail SL's, it's a pain, place a limit order to get you in on your SL's being hit, take advantage of the unholy frequency.

They spike down hit the SL's then instantly reverse quick before you get the time to get back in as cheap, sometimes they even repeat it and hurt you a few times just for kicks.

I watch for spike and reverses and jump on the reverse, it works well, but needs balls of steel.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #21,402
  • Oct 21, 2012 6:15pm Oct 21, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting KADC
That sounds virtually identical my stop strategy (when I'm using stops).

My problem has been that, with unholy frequency, wherever I set my stops, which is always far enough past a Fibonacci, resistance/support, or psychological level that it should be "safe", that point will be, to the pip, precisely where the price will spike up or down to before promptly returning.
Don't use stops then - seriously ask yourself where silver or gold will ultimately go and when you take account of QE4ever do you honestly believe that the dollar will appreciate against either.

Just buy the dips and add on the way down or hedge it until it turns.
  • #21,403
  • Oct 21, 2012 6:57pm Oct 21, 2012 6:57pm
Quoting Uneek
If your expectations are that gold will push down as far as 1700 then I guess you have your answer. However I assume you want to know if it will drop further than 1700 and that really depends on whom you ask. As for me I am expecting the same as you (well 1690 to be more precise but for some that's practically the same).
The $1690 area is where I'm looking to as well as the next stop for gold.

I have the range between $1701.5 and $1691.7 as the next "shelf" for Dec GC to take a rest. Though the 38.2% Fibonacci of May-Oct/Dec-Feb is right in the centre of this area at $1697.3, now that the 50 DMA has been breached I'm giving more weight to $1666/$1668, where the 200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement sit, as the final destination.

If Dec SI continues past where it is now at its 38.2%, the silver 50% Fib/200 DMA look like where it will wind up which would solidify my belief that the 50%/200 DMA is the ultimate target for gold as well.

Beyond that, though I don't see it as being particularly likely, gold could retest the bottom of what could be considered a sideways trending channel at $1535, but more likely $1630, which proved to be such strong resistance for four months and also where the weekly/monthly support trend line is sitting, will be the "basement" for gold.

Of course there are those that think gold is way overdue for correction dating back to 2000. Using spot prices, $1527 is the 23.6% which we've more-or-less tested and were rejected from three times since the fall from the 2011 summer highs. The problem with looking further down to $1283 at 38.2% and $1086 at the 50% is that exploration would stop below $1530ish and low-yielding mines would shut down, pushing the gold price back up.

There's the other problem that at these levels central banks would be on the verge of collapse, potentially triggering the entire financial system to fail, in which case how much gold and silver are worth will be secondary to having enough food and potable water to survive until the system reboots.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,404
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:03pm Oct 21, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting stewrigh
Don't use stops then - seriously ask yourself where silver or gold will ultimately go and when you take account of QE4ever do you honestly believe that the dollar will appreciate against either.

Just buy the dips and add on the way down or hedge it until it turns.
Generally speaking, the only time I use stops on gold is when it's at a pivot point and I think it could go either way when I won't be available to react. Otherwise, I use stops on Forex most of the time (though, as discussed, with mixed results), because you can never know when a central banker will say something which sends one currency falling or flying.

Certainly, in most cases the currency will go back to what it was doing, but I think it's better to be safe than sorry and get out and wait and see what happens, hopefully getting back in at a better price.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,405
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:09pm Oct 21, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting KADC
Generally speaking, the only time I use stops on gold is when it's at a pivot point and I think it could go either way when I won't be available to react. Otherwise, I use stops on Forex most of the time (though, as discussed, with mixed results), because you can never know when a central banker will say something which sends one currency falling or flying.

Certainly, in most cases the currency will go back to what it was doing, but I think it's better to be safe than sorry and get out and wait and see what happens, hopefully getting back in at...
Yep agree - I only hedge silver - they can't print it so it should go up eventually.
  • #21,406
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:15pm Oct 21, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting beeb
Sorry I can't help you as I use Ensign charting with Esignal feeds not mt4. I also do not use pivots or fibs...

Suggest you spend some time reading the thread...

beeb
You don't use pivots or fibs, but it's more than a coincidence when your pitchforks coincide with them. It's just another way of analysing the same data which seems to lead to the same conclusions more often than not.

I use my own hybrid parallel trend line system (for lack of a better description) which look a lot like your pitchforks except they tend to be more heavily weighted "off centre" ...probably along Fibonacci values if I had some way to measure angular Fibonacci. I usually use them to determine fractal trending channels (what the DailyFX guys call them) to look for reversal entry/exit targets.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,407
  • Oct 21, 2012 10:33pm Oct 21, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting KADC
The $1690 area is where I'm looking to as well as the next stop for gold.

I have the range between $1701.5 and $1691.7 as the next "shelf" for Dec GC to take a rest. Though the 38.2% Fibonacci of May-Oct/Dec-Feb is right in the centre of this area at $1697.3, now that the 50 DMA has been breached I'm giving more weight to $1666/$1668, where the 200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement sit, as the final destination.

If Dec SI continues past where it is now at its 38.2%, the silver 50% Fib/200 DMA look like where it will wind up which would...
Agree with you on the fact that GC & SI could still head below the 38.2% fib level and I won't be comfortable that this current retracement is over until I see a break of the minor DTL. Either way still looking to 1700 ~ 1690 to jump in. Should it drop further will average out. Thanks for the heads up.
Education has its reward, ignorance has its price.
  • #21,408
  • Edited 5:07am Oct 22, 2012 3:09am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting KADC
You don't use pivots or fibs, but it's more than a coincidence when your pitchforks coincide with them. It's just another way of analysing the same data which seems to lead to the same conclusions more often than not.
Maybe I'm just a simple person and work best with simple pictures...

20min GC previously posted found a bounce from the LP - to the pip......

http://www.screencast.com/t/hehNFOxGwm

beeb
  • #21,409
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:33am Oct 22, 2012 6:33am
Hi everyone, been reading this interesting tread for a while now, looks valuable;-)
Now it looks to me that we are moving along- under that line beep pointet out. -Or maybe we just broke it, what could be our next stop then? My toughs are its going up little then further down as KADC said then up xTrade style. :-) (cup&handle)
  • #21,410
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:30pm Oct 22, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting beeb
Maybe I'm just a simple person and work best with simple pictures...

20min GC previously posted found a bounce from the LP - to the pip......

http://www.screencast.com/t/hehNFOxGwm

beeb
What I appreciate about this forum is the different techniques people use to arrive at their conclusions. Every time different methods yield similar results increases confidence levels, and every time an alternative view is presented provides food for thought.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,411
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:52pm Oct 22, 2012 4:52pm
The Silver and Gold Speculator from Daniels Trading just reminded me that October is historically the weakest month for gold and November the strongest.

I've got seasonality charts somewhere on my other computer which also indicate key dates using 10, 20, and 30 year cycles (when I'm feeling better I'll see if I can dig them up). For the most part they coincide with contract expiration dates which are always worth paying attention to for swing trading.

I expected (hoped) nothing would happen today, and taking a quick look at a few key charts it looks like I picked a good day to be sick, and I don't think there will be any significant activity until Wednesday so I can go back to bed now without too much concern.

Happy trading, all.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,412
  • Oct 22, 2012 5:00pm Oct 22, 2012 5:00pm
HD+ . buy ??
http://up.kaminfx.com/uploads/13509429521.gif
  • #21,413
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:54pm Oct 22, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting KADC
The Silver and Gold Speculator from Daniels Trading just reminded me that October is historically the weakest month for gold and November the strongest.
Would love to know how you go with this, as we are approaching the last few days of Oct, have we seen the bottom price for a while?
keep us posted on your analysis of nov historically
  • #21,414
  • Oct 22, 2012 11:22pm Oct 22, 2012 11:22pm
I'm not usually up at this time of the day. However, I shall close the long position and look for a short opportunity if PA closes below both the Daily Pivot and lower boundary of the Congestion Break Out at 1724.55 on the 15 min chart.
Not much in the way of direct USD or EUR fundamentals later today (Oct 23). But we do have possible market moving CAD fundamental data release starting 8.30am EST. Today being a Tuesday, strong CAD may also trigger strong USD crosses reaction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,415
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:31am Oct 23, 2012 11:31am
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's biggest buyer of the precious metal, remained robust for a second straight day on Tuesday as prices dropped to their lowest in a week, enticing buyers ahead of the peak festive season.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/gold-demand...--finance.html
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #21,416
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:02pm Oct 23, 2012 2:02pm
I'm still sick and missing tremendous opportunities to short just about everything. I hope the rest of you are making money. I'm still short gold but I've got no other positions until I can drag myself down to my computer room to open some trades.

I only got up to get juice, and I'm not going to try to make a dent in the 700 messages waiting in my in-box (ugh), but I couldn't resist a quick scan of the markets before I go back to bed.

The US dollar index RSI rose above 50 for the first time since July. Non-Asian stock markets are falling across the board increasing the likelihood of a USD rally. If the index breaks above 80.20 it will clear the channel it's been in, sending gold, silver, and xxx/USD pairs further down.

Most of the people here probably share the opinion that gold and silver are the real flight-to-safety "currencies", but don't try to fight the system if you want to make money (physical buying notwithstanding).

Right now USD and the metals move in conjunction but opposite directions, so if you are able to, open multiple Forex charts on the same screen and you'll see all the majors (USD/JPY is a special case) heading back to the bottom of their trending channels. Gold and silver will likely keep falling until the xxx/USD pairs find support. EUR/USD 1.28 is probably the best target to keep an eye on as it's the most actively traded currency pair and 1.28 is the clearest "line in the sand" among the majors: If it holds so will gold and silver, else the correction will probably continue.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,417
  • Oct 24, 2012 4:36am Oct 24, 2012 4:36am
All very quiet here.....

Am noting GC Daily 14,3,3 stochastics are well into oversold territory. They can be a good guide to swing trades when they cross up from under 20 on a close. Not to be used in isolation though.......

beeb
  • #21,418
  • Oct 24, 2012 5:52am Oct 24, 2012 5:52am
Quoting beeb
All very quiet here.....

Am noting GC Daily 14,3,3 stochastics are well into oversold territory. They can be a good guide to swing trades when they cross up from under 20 on a close. Not to be used in isolation though.......

beeb
I used to think RSI were only useful for indicating overbought/oversold if above/below 70/30 before learning it's actually more useful when it breaks trend lines, particularly within 40-60 range.

The only thing I know about stochastics are what I used to know about RSI except with 80/20 being the important values. Can you educate me on the use of stochastics?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,419
  • Oct 24, 2012 5:57am Oct 24, 2012 5:57am
Quoting KADC
I used to think RSI were only useful for indicating overbought/oversold if above/below 70/30 before learning it's actually more useful when it breaks trend lines, particularly within 40-60 range.

The only thing I know about stochastics are what I used to know about RSI except with 80/20 being the important values. Can you educate me on the use of stochastics?

Just backtest the 14,3,3 on daily GC noting how a cross up from under 20 and a cross down from over 80 have been pretty good indicators of trend change.

For longer term suggest looking at the 60,3,3 on the daily.

beeb
  • #21,420
  • Oct 24, 2012 6:09am Oct 24, 2012 6:09am
Hi KADC,
I always love to read your analysis here. Apologies if my request sounds odd. Could you please explain further on what to watchout for on RSI. How do i determine possible start and end of a trend? How do i use trend lines on RSI?
Thanks.
Quoting KADC
I used to think RSI were only useful for indicating overbought/oversold if above/below 70/30 before learning it's actually more useful when it breaks trend lines, particularly within 40-60 range.

The only thing I know about stochastics are what I used to know about RSI except with 80/20 being the important values. Can you educate me on the use of stochastics?
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