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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,321
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:07am Oct 18, 2012 12:07am
Quoting XTrade
This is sort of a useless discussion and moot point.
Agreed, yet after admitting your own point was contradictory you continue to argue.

Quoting XTrade
I don't really compute your math either.. If you are saying you are trading or making 25k per trade what do you care about a measly buck and a 1/4
Currencies are traded in batch lots. The batch lot size for USD/CAD is $25,000 and will be filled the instant you place your order. If you trade in amounts other than the batch lot amount, your trade is queued and filled with other partial lots, the speed of which will depend on your broker's trade volume, but it is seldom instantaneous.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,322
  • Oct 18, 2012 1:05am Oct 18, 2012 1:05am
Quoting zusch
Computer problems are solved and now gold seems to be in a weird spot.

The 61.8% retrace of last month ($167.30) was almost hit but bounced. I would have liked to see a stronger up day yesterday than what happened, but for now the monthly hindsight of up is still in tact.

There are only 10 trading sessions left between now and when the monthly candle closes so ask yourself, "Where will the monthly candle close?"
good analysis, I'm also a big believer in using candles at highs/lows after a "decent" move to identify when I should stop looking for the trend to continue.

So what's the monthly close you're looking for that will tell you whether it's bullish/bearish? To me it looks like at least a close above 1775 will be needed to make the monthly candle NOT look bearish. Obviously, the closer to 1795 it closes, the more bullish the pattern would be.
  • #21,323
  • Oct 18, 2012 2:05am Oct 18, 2012 2:05am
Quoting zusch
There are only 10 trading sessions left between now and when the monthly candle closes so ask yourself, "Where will the monthly candle close?"
That's half a month away - price could be hundreds of dollars higher or lower by then (or exactly the same)...

I don't even know where today's candle will close.....

beeb

And what is the $167.30? Is that GLD or something?
  • #21,324
  • Edited 6:46am Oct 18, 2012 6:39am | Edited 6:46am
Both US dollar index and Euro gold are retesting yesterday's lows with bearish RSI momentum. It's a race to the bottom and the first one to bounce wins! [US dollar index turned definitively bullish by the time I posted this so unless conservatives managed to get poor jobless numbers posted, it's going to be a very bullish day for USD pairs.]

My gold short is safely into healthy profit and I don't think I'll get nervous until we near $1737.50, and Forex-wise I see so many reversal set-ups that it will be hard to choose which will have the greatest yield if the jobless claims come out with as heavy a dose of election taint as all the US data did last week.

USD/JPY has finally broken well clear of 79 and with the EUR/USD above 1.3 it looks like money is stupidly being put into currency instead of into something sensible like gold and silver, so I think the gold correction is about to resume with a vengeance.

...

In case it strikes anyone else as odd that US data figures would get tainted in favour of Obama given the greater influence conservatives hold, I believe it's Obama cashing in his chips for bailing out the banks four years ago.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,325
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:01am Oct 18, 2012 7:01am
To unemployment claims.

Looks like a lil' dip over night.

back on minor support @ 1742 with a pos number I could see 35 easily,
neg number would like a break on 53...

we'll see.... the forecast is higher than previous...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,326
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:09am Oct 18, 2012 7:09am
again of all cities but - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is out as well and has a pos forecast.

I really want to see these numbers come in negative!!!

-------------------------------------------------------------------

All and all, I may be in favor this odd time of a further dip to help produce a further handle on the weekly chart cup formation.

Also it should allow more money to re-enter the Gold market, giving the needed push to clear 1800.

Long term bullish
Short term day trade view: wait for the news on this one, doesn't look technically like a great day to be overly aggressive, play it safe.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,327
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:12am Oct 18, 2012 7:12am
In my own opinion, i think the gold will be bearish even in the long term and can move more than 4000pips because of the hidden divergence with the CCI on weekly chart . So i think $1706 is on the way, yo...
  • #21,328
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:21am Oct 18, 2012 7:21am
See the below ccharts. She is still stuck under the 100 hour SMA... (H1 daytrading)

Weekly:
Long term well intact uptrend, after all @ current we are only appx 150 bucks off the all time high!

Even a further correction will not put the chart in technical harm.

Quoting XTrade

Long term bullish
Short term day trade view: wait for the news on this one, doesn't look technically like a great day to be overly aggressive, play it safe.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,329
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:24am Oct 18, 2012 7:24am
4000 pips would be 400 USD

1700 area is a possibility but not much further down than we are now and I would imagine there are buys set there, also I see that as the cap area of any further down move give or take 25 USD for a swing.

Post a chart please.. yo

Quoting Francgoz
In my own opinion, i think the gold will be bearish even in the long term and can move more than 4000pips because of the hidden divergence with the CCI on weekly chart . So i think $1706 is on the way, yo...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,330
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:35am Oct 18, 2012 7:35am
Colour me surprised. I guess the conservatives pulled some strings of their own.

...bur for some reason it's still a USD positive (albeit someone muted) initial reaction everywhere except USD/JPY.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,331
  • Oct 18, 2012 8:01am Oct 18, 2012 8:01am
Unemployment higher than forecast. Gold gets a small boost back to 1741/2 area..

Numbers
Actual 388K Forecast 367K
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,332
  • Oct 18, 2012 8:12am Oct 18, 2012 8:12am
Why are you bullish US jobs?

Also what broker are you using? Sounds like an ECN.


If I remember correctly you said they stopped supporting or saving your technical studies on chart close? Now that's just crazy!
Quoting Kadc
Colour me surprised. I guess the conservatives pulled some strings of their own.

...bur for some reason it's still a USD positive (albeit someone muted) initial reaction everywhere except USD/JPY.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,333
  • Edited 9:22am Oct 18, 2012 8:55am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting XTrade
Why are you bullish US jobs?
I'm not bullish on US jobs, but I was bullish on misleading and manipulated US job data.

Quoting XTrade
Also what broker are you using? Sounds like an ECN.
I trade Forex and futures through Interactive Brokers, and yes, they are an ECN.

Quoting XTrade
If I remember correctly you said they stopped supporting or saving your technical studies on chart close? Now that's just crazy!
I've now using the last version of their standalone software that doesn't have the "feature" of deleting my studies, and fortunately the software automatically backs up all settings daily and stores the last week of settings so I was able to recover anything I'd lost.

I used to use the auto-updating web version but obviously I'm not interested in doing that anymore, and since trading protocols are standardized (hence the many third-party interfaces that abound) I'm not worried about them forcing me to upgrade the standalone version, though I suspect that was at least partially the intent behind introducing this new "feature".

Their free platform has always been antiquated but functional but I don't like the interface of their paid platform and since there are plenty of free interactive charts on the Internet I've never felt the need to upgrade.

I chose Interactive Brokers because they are consistently ranked highest for lowest trading costs, but being in Canada I really didn't have much choice in the matter.

You can choose your commission structure, but anyone taking the time to do the math will see that the plan they offer by default is unlikely to be the best choice for anyone, and certainly not if you are high-volume trader. They also try to get you to sign up for countless data plans and news services, but there's nothing that you can't get free on elsewhere on the Internet. Just like banks, they are trying to make money off of all the little things that used to be free instead of being content to make money off of commissions and margin rates.

I'd recommend them overall, but like dealing with any large institution more focussed on profits than customer service, it can be frustrating at times.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,334
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:19am Oct 18, 2012 9:19am
Quoting nim1984
good analysis, I'm also a big believer in using candles at highs/lows after a "decent" move to identify when I should stop looking for the trend to continue.

So what's the monthly close you're looking for that will tell you whether it's bullish/bearish? To me it looks like at least a close above 1775 will be needed to make the monthly candle NOT look bearish. Obviously, the closer to 1795 it closes, the more bullish the pattern would be.
I don't have a futures chart available, only GLD, but 1775 is close to where the month opened so yes I agree we need to get there at least. That would mean the monthly candle closes as a inside-ish bar. Basically the candle can't finish red, and the more green body we get the better.

Quoting beeb
That's half a month away - price could be hundreds of dollars higher or lower by then (or exactly the same)...

I don't even know where today's candle will close.....

beeb

And what is the $167.30? Is that GLD or something?
Yes I'm quoting GLD. 10 days left means there is time left in the month for gold to show some bullish signs, but its got to happen quickly. Should gold continue its bull run there is going to have to be some serious up days in a row between now and the end of the month.

Retracing down past the 50% Fib signals that there is a decent amount of sellers in gold so the bull run in the short term is in jeopardy in my opinion.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,335
  • Oct 18, 2012 10:53am Oct 18, 2012 10:53am
Quoting XTrade
See the below ccharts. She is still stuck under the 100 hour SMA... (H1 daytrading)

Weekly:
Long term well intact uptrend, after all @ current we are only appx 150 bucks off the all time high!

Even a further correction will not put the chart in technical harm.
You should see the H4, in the top of decline channel now.
  • #21,336
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:32pm Oct 18, 2012 12:32pm
God damn, i'm so pissed, today is the second week without a PC and i cannot make any technical analysis but the fundamentals to me are the same, when gold drops 50bucks here they come (bears) with "the new world order" predictions 'bout the gold...all that usd has to cling right now are the elections.
  • #21,337
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:36pm Oct 18, 2012 12:36pm
Thanks for the comprehensive re:

Now, I noticed you are using netdania as well, I am having problems with some of the applets and was wondering if you are experiencing any.

Right now, java does not even seem to be working, thus I can't open my charts from them at least.....

I sent an email, likely won't hear anything till late night due to the fact that they are in Denmark.

Canada is limited on brokers? Can't you just use any of the UK brokers if you like? Not that I'm saying to change.

Quoting Kadc
I'm not bullish on US jobs, but I was bullish on misleading and manipulated US job data.



I trade Forex and futures through Interactive Brokers, and yes, they are an ECN.



I've now using the last version of their standalone software that doesn't have the "feature" of deleting my studies, and fortunately the software automatically backs up all settings daily and stores the last week of settings so I was able to recover anything I'd lost.

I used to use the auto-updating web version but obviously I'm not interested in doing that...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,338
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:37pm Oct 18, 2012 12:37pm
Post it please.

I am having tech difficulties and cannot chart, also working on a design.

Quoting Ares13
You should see the H4, in the top of decline channel now.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,339
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:40pm Oct 18, 2012 12:40pm
Today sucks all around. at least the price is stable right now, but we need a decisive break up or down to end whatever is going on in this 5 USD swing market.

I am getting the feeling some bulls are waiting for a last push down to enter perhaps around 1700/25 appx.

which also should put an end to the downward slope as well as fulfill my area for the handle to form on the weekly.



Quoting musclemike
God damn, i'm so pissed, today is the second week without a PC and i cannot make any technical analysis but the fundamentals to me are the same, when gold drops 50bucks here they come (bears) with "the new world order" predictions 'bout the gold...all that usd has to cling right now are the elections.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,340
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:43pm Oct 18, 2012 12:43pm
Where is your PC?

Mine is in bad shape... On the MAC.

I can login to accounts via web or phone. being that most of my trades are longer term I don't need to stare at the chart all day anymore.

Quoting musclemike
God damn, i'm so pissed, today is the second week without a PC and i cannot make any technical analysis but the fundamentals to me are the same, when gold drops 50bucks here they come (bears) with "the new world order" predictions 'bout the gold...all that usd has to cling right now are the elections.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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