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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,221
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:00am Oct 15, 2012 9:00am
Yes, something to that affect.

Yet, I don't think the handle will bottom at 1650.

Maybe 1700 + or - 25 bucks.
Quoting jimobiwan
Hi Xtrade.

is the cup using 29FEB high to 16MAY low? I read that a handle is normally no more than half the cup which puts it at 1658.2 and takes 4 weeks to form.

Is that what you are seeing?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,222
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:03am Oct 15, 2012 9:03am
Another technical thought is that the USDX could hit resistance @ crossing above 80.00 and turn back down, making this area (1740 -) we are at now of potential support solid and a possible entry.

Personally if without position I would wait a bit for things to confirm and settle.

Ideally we want to see gold trending north or moving sideways to establish needed support before trigger pulls.

Quoting XTrade
There will be a re - entry. always is. Let's wait for some solid support first or a confluence of support (horizontal) SMA and channel or or mix and match.

A correction was indeed imminent.

All depends on your trading style on whether to get out of profitable longs to take small shorts, or just ride the longs.


In the chart below "daily" we can see at current the correlation between the USDX and Gold is inverse and quite strong ATM.

Technically speaking, it looks like there could be potential for a further rise in the USDX and...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,223
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:10am Oct 15, 2012 9:10am
Yet another idea - is that the election and if there is a new president, will create uncertainty, which should be Gold positive,

I need to look at a better chart, but it seems there may be a potential head and shoulders on the USDX???

If it is correct and pans out I'd like to see completion with the dollar back at 74. which should easily propel gold above 1900.

Looking for rejection @ 80.

Also the correction from 1800 is now in the 70 USD range which is substantial. Whether or not it is substantial enough to be ENOUGH to resume north is yet to be seen.. Need to see what news is on tap for this week.. A bit behind today!

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, just throwing out some morning ideas.

XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,224
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:19am Oct 15, 2012 9:19am
Looks like the positive retail sales numbers this morning helped push gold down,
followed by neg empire state and another neg release of lesser impact than retail sales.

Yet, these retail sales numbers are typical for this time of year with the holidays coming up, so I don't put much stock in them overall.


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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,225
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:21am Oct 15, 2012 9:21am
Be careful today, for a fallout, yet if things look stable I'd venture there is at least a 5 USD long to be had on retracement from the 10 USD fall origin 1745 to 1735....

See if 1735 holds, then perhaps pull the trigger,

short term trade in and out no greed.

Trade at own risk.

Just an idea....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,226
  • Oct 15, 2012 9:25am Oct 15, 2012 9:25am
Looks like while I was writing we lost another five bucks,

Let's see if the two corresponding points, (my chart is overlayed with THE USDX over Gold Spot)

by 1730 will produce a bounce....... Dixy still below 80 -- looks like both the USD and GOLD just took a hit, which would spell money coming out of the market for whatever reason.... ....


If she keeps falling, I would close any (day trade) shorts before London close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,227
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:51am Oct 15, 2012 10:51am
Quoting XTrade
Looks like while I was writing we lost another five bucks,

Let's see if the two corresponding points, (my chart is overlayed with THE USDX over Gold Spot)

by 1730 will produce a bounce....... Dixy still below 80 -- looks like both the USD and GOLD just took a hit, which would spell money coming out of the market for whatever reason.... ....


If she keeps falling, I would close any (day trade) shorts before London close.
Gold Is Finishing its H N S run in h4. I believe gold would still go down in this near term.

In daily, I see that Gold finished its cup pattern, Pitchfork middle resistance is respected for several weeks, sma 20 is breached to the downside......

Looking for buy opportunity still in short term... Maybe around 1700-1720.

What do u think guys..?

Thx

R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold chart oct daily new.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold chart oct h4 new.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #21,228
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:56am Oct 15, 2012 11:56am
Interim support 1731/2 - and there's your 5 USD scalp to 37 off origin as promised...

And counting, let's see if it will hit ten or 15 by days end.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,229
  • Edited 12:23pm Oct 15, 2012 12:01pm | Edited 12:23pm
Don't really see a clear head and shoulders there. For instance your second shoulder is on what would be the NECK, which is still unclear, and there seem to be 4 possible shoulders.. thus making it not a valid shoulder. just ups and downs. but if it worked for you great.

I was talking about the possibility of a HS on the USDX daily but need to look at a better chart than an overlay.

EDIT: ALTHOUGH NOW I REALIZE I WAS LOOKING AT H1!!! So this may be a totally moot point.

The cup and handle is more than just a cup.

The handle has to form then the breakout comes off the bottom of the handle.

My rule of thumb with any of these patterns is usually the Higher the Time Frame the more impact, which is somewhat obvious.

Also they are much more valid in there intentions.
ie: reversal, continuation, than on lower time frames like the minute charts and even H1.

H4 is kind stuck in the middle, things can be very clear or very foggy...

Quoting llrickkll
Gold Is Finishing its H N S run in h4. I believe gold would still go down in this near term.

In daily, I see that Gold finished its cup pattern, Pitchfork middle resistance is respected for several weeks, sma 20 is breached to the downside......

Looking for buy opportunity still in short term... Maybe around 1700-1720.

What do u think guys..?

Thx

R
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,230
  • Edited 2:46pm Oct 15, 2012 12:04pm | Edited 2:46pm
I'm thinking she's going to make a run on 1741 for the remaining NY session

edit: looking slow, let's add asia into that claim

reasoning: test of broken support area.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,231
  • Oct 15, 2012 12:22pm Oct 15, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting XTrade
I'm thinking she's going to make a run on 1741 for the remaining NY session
Hey.. Whats ur take on silver..? How do u think it will react in asian trading tomorrow keeping in view the strong US data..
  • #21,232
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:44pm Oct 15, 2012 2:44pm
It was only retail sales which IS important, but, I think at this time of year is a skewed indicator as to what Americans are really able to spend and are not.

A lot of this probably went on plastic to be paid at a later date. There are Holidays coming up- my reasoning.

The other US data was below forecast today.

Silver at the moment looks to be on support @ 32.75 and has dropped from the 34 handle.

Both gold and silver seem a bit oversold at the moment to me technically.

I would venture to guesstimate there may be some light buying at these lower prices during Asia, yet it can be a tricky market at times.

Sometimes they just mimic the day's happenings and sell... regardless of techs.

Even if AG and AU are to correct a bit more I would expect some sort of a test of broken support before hand.

Now we still have Unemployment claims Thurs, and Home Sales Friday which I would put more stock into as to the real climate here.

There are also a slew of other smaller releases as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing index... which again only focuses on Philadelphia - of all cities.....


Quoting Pratik
Hey.. Whats ur take on silver..? How do u think it will react in asian trading tomorrow keeping in view the strong US data..
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,233
  • Oct 15, 2012 3:33pm Oct 15, 2012 3:33pm
I am also LONG term silver bull.

I feel only a taste of silver's investment potential has been unleashed so far.

Also, in the YEARS to come, I believe, if we can surpass all the naked shorts and price suppression, the price will rocket with more potential to the upside than gold.

Propelling it into the 100s+ per ozt.

However, Silver is still widely used if not mainly, (As Kadc's recent graph had shown) used primarily as an industrial metal.

Thus, to facilitate such a move in price, a new, perhaps blend of metals to make one, would need to be created to take the place of silver in most industrial applications. This can already be seen with certain copper industrial applications.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,234
  • Oct 15, 2012 3:37pm Oct 15, 2012 3:37pm
Could potentially test the broken line @ or around 30.00 USD for further upward confirmation if not broken down.

MAJOR SUPPORT 27.50 - resistance @ 35.00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,235
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:57pm Oct 15, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting rozario173
The dollar will soon be worthless. 6-8 months is timeframe of dollar collapse, maybe a little sooner or later, but it will happen. All the nations in the world have stopped buying oil in dollars.

ROFL are you serious? Then all the other heavy socialistic nations will have their heads heads cutoff way before. Like 2-3 months. LOL
  • #21,236
  • Edited 9:20pm Oct 15, 2012 9:03pm | Edited 9:20pm
Holy cow! Is anyone keeping track of the spot gold volatility? I bet, someone somewhere's got to be making a bundle harvesting stop losses.
I don't have statistics but my personal observation is that Tuesdays can be very tricky if bears are having an upper hand by NY close on Mondays. Unless very strong fundamentals come into play, the bearish trend often continues until Wednesday between 6am and 8am EST.
  • #21,237
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:14pm Oct 15, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting TRMZXT
ROFL are you serious? Then all the other heavy socialistic nations will have their heads heads cutoff way before. Like 2-3 months. LOL
The dollar is dead. Eventually there will be a global collapse. The "ELITE" control the world. The Fed is Public Enemy Number 1, as they are INTENTIONALLY creating bubbles and distortions in the markets by debasing the US dollar. QE∞ is all about re-capitalizing the insolvent banks by guaranteeing the banksters profit on any and all risky loans as they can immediately roll them over to The Fed. This will serve to re-inflate the housing bubble (banks can once again essentially underwrite any loan at ZERO RISK) as well conduct a stealth bailout of out the insolvent banks.

Time will speak for itself.
  • #21,238
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:53pm Oct 15, 2012 10:53pm
+1
  • #21,239
  • Edited 5:18am Oct 16, 2012 4:53am | Edited 5:18am
GC Daily

Poss a/r line:

http://www.screencast.com/t/lyrkvhBzxO4

Detail:

http://www.screencast.com/t/0CQtyRjf

beeb
  • #21,240
  • Oct 16, 2012 6:44am Oct 16, 2012 6:44am
Quoting musclemike
... it would be nice a re-test of that support around 1734-1745 ... so it can make me really believe in that channel again...

Now it would be nice for that support to resist...we'll see...
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