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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #20,961
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:09am Sep 18, 2012 9:09am
Quoting beeb
Don't rely too much on correlations...

They work until they don't work....

Read the thread

beeb
  • #20,962
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:18am Sep 18, 2012 9:18am
  •  SwissRaj
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: (¯`·._.· the lonely trader ·._.·´¯) | 109 Posts
Quoting beeb
Don't rely too much on correlations...
Seems that Evan's words triggered the move.

Correlations are ok to study, but on a daily basis, our work can't rely on them, unless you invest for your grandchild haha

Anyway, it's crazy to keep track of everything is said. Who was listening to Evans? not me, but obviously someone was
>>> psychology is more important than technicalities ^_^
  • #20,963
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:20am Sep 18, 2012 9:20am
Quoting Kadc
This spike down to $1753 ($1338 in Euros, the 23.8% Fibonacci from the July low on the Euro gold chart)
Fibs are great tools, but can falter when subjectivity comes into place. I think you would find that you are better served when using Fibs on specific candles instead of general moves. For instance take the last weeks candle and put a Fib on it. 1757, 1750, 1743 are this weeks Fib levels and won't be valid next week. See attached chart for a visual look at GLD (just ignore price axis).

Quote
(Let's not rehash the old "you have to use stops, you fool" argument. I'm not recommending ditching stops for anyone else, but for my personal trading method I calculated that stops that weren't so broad that they never triggered anyway cost me literally nine times more than they saved me last year and since I reduced my reliance on them my profits are much better.)
I agree no stops is better, especially for open profitable positions (B/E is what I leave my stops at). I also manually close trades when price is no longer behaving the way it should.

If I had to place a hard stop right now to "protect" my profits because I was going on vacation, etc, I would place it just below 1743 (the 61.8% retracement of last week). However if that number is hit this week, it is likely I could exit at a better price next week (or take a sell position, hedging my winning position).

Eventually this gold run will have to end, but the weekly chart won't just spike down leaving you no opportunity to get out with a healthy profit. One of these weeks price will retrace past the 61.8% retrace of the previous week and that is the first warning sign that a momentum shift could be in the process of happening.

I do the same analysis on Monthly candles, check out this post by me for another example:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post5961831
Attached Image
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #20,964
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:22am Sep 18, 2012 9:22am
Did anyone else get an unlikely $8 downward spike 20 minutes ago or was it my broker clearing stops? (another reason I don't normally use stops)
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #20,965
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:23am Sep 18, 2012 9:23am
Quoting SwissRaj
Anyway, it's crazy to keep track of everything is said. Who was listening to Evans? not me, but obviously someone was
You need to listen to everything IMHO

If you trade intraday get a squawkbox feed - if you don't, it's like driving in the dark with no headlights and a blindfold on......



beeb

One trade will pay for a year's sub....
  • #20,966
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:23am Sep 18, 2012 9:23am
Quoting Kadc
Did anyone else get an unlikely $8 downward spike 20 minutes ago or was it my broker clearing stops? (another reason I don't normally use stops)
No...not on my MT4 terminal.
  • #20,967
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:40am Sep 18, 2012 9:40am
Quoting zusch
Fibs are great tools, but can falter when subjectivity comes into place. I think you would find that you are better served when using Fibs on specific candles instead of general moves. For instance take the last weeks candle and put a Fib on it. 1757, 1750, 1743 are this weeks Fib levels and won't be valid next week. See attached chart for a visual look at GLD (just ignore price axis).
I find Fibonacci retracments for the prior movement work best for confirming entry points for this kind of stepping action, with corresponding candles to confirm the price action is moving in the right direction before taking a position. I use the high/low of the last completed movement range for determining corrections and targets, preferably with harmonic convergence with another trend-line style indicator or psychological price level.

I also pay attention to RSI, MA, MACD, candles, etc. as appropriate.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #20,968
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:50am Sep 18, 2012 9:50am
  •  SwissRaj
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: (¯`·._.· the lonely trader ·._.·´¯) | 109 Posts
Quoting beeb
You need to listen to everything IMHO

If you trade intraday get a squawkbox feed
I've been considering it during the last months... so, you think it is worthy?

I try to follow news and twitter, but not fast enough.
>>> psychology is more important than technicalities ^_^
  • #20,969
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:51am Sep 18, 2012 9:51am
  •  SwissRaj
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: (¯`·._.· the lonely trader ·._.·´¯) | 109 Posts
Quoting Kadc
Did anyone else get an unlikely $8 downward spike 20 minutes ago or was it my broker clearing stops? (another reason I don't normally use stops)
Around 10 am ET?
Not here, i'm afraid.
Which broker do you use?
>>> psychology is more important than technicalities ^_^
  • #20,970
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:53am Sep 18, 2012 9:53am
Quoting Kadc
I use the high/low of the last completed movement range for determining corrections and targets, preferably with harmonic convergence with another trend-line style indicator or psychological price level.
Care to share an example of this?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #20,971
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:53am Sep 18, 2012 9:53am
Quoting SwissRaj
I've been considering it during the last months... so, you think it is worthy?

I try to follow news and twitter, but not fast enough.

Only you know if it's "worth it" - which depends on your trade size/frequency etc etc....

If you risk $100 once a week then it isn't worth it

It's essential for me. Same goes for other tools of the trade - backup pc, multiple screens, feeds, charting software - get the best you can afford commensurate with your trading profile.....

beeb
  • #20,972
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:06am Sep 18, 2012 10:06am
hi people...
if gold come back to 1755, is it very bad news for the big bullish trend?
  • #20,973
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:30am Sep 18, 2012 10:30am
Quoting prototip
hi people...
if gold come back to 1755, is it very bad news for the big bullish trend?

Let me put it this way...i'll buy every 50$ dip, so yeah, if gold is going to 1720 i'll be a happy buyer...for me, the bullish trend has just started after a very long range, enjoy the ride...
  • #20,974
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:39am Sep 18, 2012 10:39am
Quoting SwissRaj
Around 10 am ET?
Not here, i'm afraid.
Which broker do you use?
Sorry, I should have specified E-Micro at 9:59:30-9:59:45. I checked and there was no spike for spot or full futures.

Though I generally avoid E-Micros, they are usually fine when the North American markets are open and there's normal volume and it's trading no more than 50¢ off of the full future price. (it was within 20-30¢ at the time). In my experience, spikes on E-Micros usually only happen during the Asian and European markets, and even then $8 is rather extreme, but I wanted to pick up and lock in an extra $500 to offset some currency losses and it was an easy trade.

Though it's irksome to be out $250 profit for a rather suspicious move, that's what I get for being lazy and setting the stop using the actual E-Micro action rather than putting the trigger on Dec gold.

...and I never did make breakfast and go to bed which was the entire reason I did it!

I was using my Interactive Brokers account for this trade.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #20,975
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:40am Sep 18, 2012 10:40am
Quoting zusch
Care to share an example of this?
Certainly, but I'm several hours past when I intended to be in bed so I hope you won't mind waiting until tomorrow.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #20,976
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:59am Sep 18, 2012 10:59am
  •  SwissRaj
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: (¯`·._.· the lonely trader ·._.·´¯) | 109 Posts
nymex:MGCZ2 spike
chart from Interactive Brokers
Could be IB guys playing with stops, or lack of liquidity.
As kadc said, this doesn't appear in GC contract or XAUUSD.
Under normal conditions MGC is liquid enough to trade, but spread bid-ask tend to be big: 0.70 at this very moment
Attached Image
>>> psychology is more important than technicalities ^_^
  • #20,977
  • Edited 1:00pm Sep 18, 2012 11:39am | Edited 1:00pm
maybe itnice buy setup in oil/usd... righ now
its just money
  • #20,978
  • Edited 3:42am Sep 19, 2012 1:40am | Edited 3:42am
GC20 flirting with obvious resistances......

http://www.screencast.com/t/eZRXhrMkzV

beeb

EDIT - no sooner posted than breached.
Now to see if former resistance becomes support ie the difference between a flush and a move.....

EDIT 2 - Note how often in pm's a small move above a previous high (or low in a downmove) is often quickly reversed. This is known as eating breakout traders for breakfast and is why I advocate seeing where support comes in following a breach of resistance.....
  • #20,979
  • Sep 19, 2012 1:56am Sep 19, 2012 1:56am
Hello guys, I've been trading Forex most of the time but since I saw a report on silver a few weeks ago, when it was around 30-31$ I started trading it and it brought some nice profits, to my account and also to a smaller account of a friend of mine of which I'm taking care off. I'll be posting my chart here so you guys can comment, cheers and safe trading to you all ;D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAGUSD.jpg Size: 227 KB
  • #20,980
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:15am Sep 19, 2012 2:15am
"Why Gold May Hit $2000 by Christmas":
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/why-g...dXSVtGphw.html


P.S. I wasn't thinkin' @2000 but around @1925 at the end of the year...
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