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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #20,021
  • Jul 21, 2012 1:02pm Jul 21, 2012 1:02pm
How Bernanke will cause the next crash before 2014

"Massive wealth destruction coming," warns Hong Kong economist Marc Faber, one of many "Dr. Dooms" we've featured over the years. Faber warned in a recent interview on CNBC: The super-rich "may lose up to 50% of their total wealth. How? "Somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction. That usually happens either through very high inflation or through social unrest or through war or credit-market collapse." Dr. Doom delivers again

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how...7?siteid=nwhwk
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,022
  • Jul 21, 2012 1:12pm Jul 21, 2012 1:12pm
Weekly or daily, weekly shows the better picture,I see what you are saying, I am just offering my current view.

Yes, the guessing game continues!

The point is sort of why hold a short for a position if time and time again it will be squashed at 1530 area or 1500...

I suppose why hold a long, if the highs are not getting higher, but, if we look back to the fall in 2007 to 2008 this one looks very similar,so if history will repeat itself and the 10+ year bull run will continue, then we are just at another low and a buying opportunity.

I just posted an article in line with my view that it will be Something out of Bernanke's mouth, unless we get big cap specs just wanting to bet (why would they if there is no reason though right?) that will propel gold higher.

Massive inflation would be one.

I suppose beforehand a technical break could occur, but we need something that is going to have some legs. To get those legs I feel we need some backing fundamentals as well as a return of capital to this market.

Otherwise perhaps the trend will turn south. It has been a while now and we haven't moved much, something is coming......


Quoting SunTrader
Well then how about on a daily chart. Continuous lower swing highs uptil and including Thursday. Granted lower swing lows stopped happening 5/16/12 so that does show support but support (or resistance) can only hold for so long.

Some may say the longer S or R holds the stronger it gets. I am a believer in the opposite effect. But then who knows. The guessing game continues and .... continues.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,023
  • Edited 2:54pm Jul 21, 2012 2:42pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting XTrade
Thanks for your input LP, we need to get you posting some charts!
If the red triangle persists long enough and all these EMAs converge inside, here is when and where the price will not only break out but likely explode to the tune of say $70USD or higher, quite possibly in one bar.
My charts have nothing on them, just bars and candles.
I look at time and price for the trend along with the trends support and resistance.
Timeframes trends are posted along with support and resistance, all I do is watch the 5 min. timeframe response.
Im seeing the same thing you are, just viewing from a different angle without following ma's. or other indicators.
A confirmed hold of red line 1612 area and we have the quarterly and yearly trendguide 1600-1611 at our backs and that spells bull.
The monthly is included also at the 1604 area.
  • #20,024
  • Jul 21, 2012 8:56pm Jul 21, 2012 8:56pm
So I take it you primarily trade M5?

If so as an experienced trader perhaps you could shed some light - even a sentence on how important it is to look at the bigger picture no matter what time frame.

Unless you are a hotshot TICK trader on wall street working for JPM who just posted trading losses of 2 BILLION USD. (Which I know you are not):

So think about that newbies, JPM lost 2 bln USD. when you blow up your first account. It might make you feel a bit better!
Everybody loses some time.

XT

Quoting lilpip
My charts have nothing on them, just bars and candles.
I look at time and price for the trend along with the trends support and resistance.
Timeframes trends are posted along with support and resistance, all I do is watch the 5 min. timeframe response.
Im seeing the same thing you are, just viewing from a different angle without following ma's. or other indicators.
A confirmed hold of red line 1612 area and we have the quarterly and yearly trendguide 1600-1611 at our backs and that spells bull.
The monthly is included also at the 1604 area....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,025
  • Jul 21, 2012 9:12pm Jul 21, 2012 9:12pm
BTW, i don't use all those MAs. only the 50 -100 and 200 and my charts are nearly naked. I use trend lines - S/R and channels.

The indis are for fun or a second opinion if you will.

Naked charts are the best and the ability to read daily candles.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,026
  • Edited 7:22am Jul 22, 2012 7:00am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting XTrade
So I take it you primarily trade M5?

If so as an experienced trader perhaps you could shed some light - even a sentence on how important it is to look at the bigger picture no matter what time frame.
Everybody loses some time.

XT
The bigger picture is to know your trends so one is not buying into resistance or selling into support of the next stronger stronger trend of the yearly, quarterly, monthly etc., and to know your trends is to know your timeframes as response to these timeframe s/r areas we can tell if the trend is changing and moving through to the next higher or lower timeframe as it all starts by watching the 5 min.
As we confirm direction we first look at the 5 min. and then 15 min.trend, and so on 30, 1hr,4hr,daily ,weekly,monthly,quarterly,and yearly.
P.S.- You say experienced trader, I say give me a few more years.
  • #20,027
  • Edited 10:06am Jul 22, 2012 9:49am | Edited 10:06am
Interesting stuff from Maund - Given thin summer trading conditions I think it perfectly possible/not unlikely that we see a panic-inducing dip through support followed by a powerful reversal.....

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

beeb

EDIT - still no breaks of the GC Daily wedge I've been showing for a few weeks:

http://screencast.com/t/aIhSLvYU6
  • #20,028
  • Jul 22, 2012 11:20am Jul 22, 2012 11:20am
Great chart beeb, nice & simple and clean.

Going to read the link now, sounds from your words like a possibility, - the bears swoop in on a low volume day, take advantage, push the price down, then, money comes back into the market creating a reversal at lower price, including some of the bears short covering and switching to bulls.

Quoting beeb
Interesting stuff from Maund - Given thin summer trading conditions I think it perfectly possible/not unlikely that we see a panic-inducing dip through support followed by a powerful reversal.....

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

beeb

EDIT - still no breaks of the GC Daily wedge I've been showing for a few weeks:

http://screencast.com/t/aIhSLvYU6
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,029
  • Edited 12:45pm Jul 22, 2012 11:24am | Edited 12:45pm
Here is the chart from beeb's link

http://www.clivemaund.com/charts/gold3year220712.gif
Quoting XTrade
Great chart beeb, nice & simple and clean.

Going to read the link now, sounds from your words like a possibility, - the bears swoop in on a low volume day, take advantage, push the price down, then, money comes back into the market creating a reversal at lower price, including some of the bears short covering and switching to bulls.

Quoting beeb
Interesting stuff from Maund - Given thin summer trading conditions I think it perfectly possible/not unlikely that we see a panic-inducing dip through support followed by a powerful reversal.....
http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
beeb
EDIT - still no breaks of the GC Daily wedge I've been showing for a few weeks:
http://screencast.com/t/aIhSLvYU6
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,030
  • Jul 22, 2012 12:43pm Jul 22, 2012 12:43pm
I am really enjoying this chart and the showing of the three arc fan correction, something I am familiar with yet, did not even look at it for the spot gold chart.

Support just in line with what we have been discussing as well,

I am in total agreement with the statement:

"it will be when gold breaks out above the third fanline higher up, that it's expected major uptrend will begin in earnest"

This to me looks like an appx break of the zone -1630 resistance to 1650...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,031
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:02pm Jul 22, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting XTrade
I am really enjoying this chart and the showing of the three arc fan correction, something I am familiar with yet, did not even look at it for the spot gold chart.

Support just in line with what we have been discussing as well,

I am in total agreement with the statement:

"it will be when gold breaks out above the third fanline higher up, that it's expected major uptrend will begin in earnest"

This to me looks like an appx break of the zone -1630 resistance to 1650...
My concern is that what you are pointing out is TOO obvious and that always makes me wary.

Suck in the little people, churn them around and spit them out for a juicy profit has happened all too often......

So I'll continue to trade carefully with lower timeframes giving hints to bigger moves.....

beeb
  • #20,032
  • Jul 22, 2012 3:27pm Jul 22, 2012 3:27pm
Maund on silver now:

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

beeb
  • #20,033
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:02pm Jul 22, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting beeb
Interesting stuff from Maund - Given thin summer trading conditions I think it perfectly possible/not unlikely that we see a panic-inducing dip through support followed by a powerful reversal.....

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
I enjoy looking at this guys angle as I can relate to my mo.
The first time I viewed his site he had a video of watching candle formations response to resistance and this time he is viewing a chart in timeframes of 3.
  • #20,034
  • Edited 9:00pm Jul 22, 2012 8:38pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting XTrade
I am really enjoying this chart and the showing of the three arc fan correction,
"it will be when gold breaks out above the third fanline higher up, that it's expected major uptrend will begin in earnest"
This to me looks like an appx break of the zone -1630 resistance to 1650...
From my angle its looking a little higher as the 3 year red 200ma says 1658.
It looks to me that the top line is lining up with 1680 area.
which lines up with what im seeing
july monthly
1681
1604
1525
the 2nd red line looks to be in the 1612 area which is lining up with the 3rd quarter pivot @ 1611.
The bottom of key support area lines up in the area of quarterly lows support @ 1516.
The top of key support lines up with our 2011 breakout retest area 1550.
3rd quarter
1706
1611
1516
  • #20,035
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:55pm Jul 22, 2012 9:55pm
Sell gold (futures contract) GC at 1586.3 with a 10 tick stop and 15-20 tick target. Good set up here.
  • #20,036
  • Jul 22, 2012 11:42pm Jul 22, 2012 11:42pm
Based on what?
  • #20,037
  • Edited 6:20am Jul 23, 2012 5:54am | Edited 6:20am
mon.daily
1603
1583
1568
although bias is down on the weekly chart from 1587-88, looking at the daily it has support at the daily lows 1568 area.
Watching response of candle formations on the 5 min. and see if she holds for move back up.

ps for the guy who was wanting signals, that means take your daily partials and have eyes open to flip north as she decides to rotate or continue trending.
  • #20,038
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:58am Jul 23, 2012 6:58am
U S equities futures down almost 1%
  • #20,039
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:22am Jul 23, 2012 7:22am
any news regarding this down side move??
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #20,040
  • Edited 12:38pm Jul 23, 2012 8:33am | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting shaukat113
any news regarding this down side move??
Not every move HAS to be as a result of news.....

Rather, what is happening looks to be a continuation of the trend we have been seeing for some time...

beeb
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