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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,621
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:35pm Apr 30, 2012 4:35pm
FYI

Another analysis

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1335792600.php
  • #18,622
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:05pm Apr 30, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting jsr
FYI

Another analysis

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1335792600.php

This guy has a sense of humour.
  • #18,623
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:17pm Apr 30, 2012 5:17pm
Why? not enough bulls out there?
  • #18,624
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:43pm Apr 30, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting Knight Rider
This guy has a sense of humour.
But what happened to:

"Get past the commentators and forecastors and trust yourselves"

You could of passed it by - it was a link after all, not a copy/paste, like the one I posted.

But the only reason why I posted the story that I did and give it any kind of weight is because of the source, Futures Magazine, which in my opinion is one of the better trading news outlets.

Fundamentals drive the markets, technicals steer them.

PS if you really think it is possible to be totally emotion-free you haven't traded long enough.
  • #18,625
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:42pm Apr 30, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting Knight Rider
Okay. If that is what you believe or "know" to be true. I believe as long as real interest rates are negative and central banks contnue to print money and are net long on gold, the long term bullish technicals are intact. I also believe/know that we are in for further currency debasement (inflation) for the remainder of this decade.
Agree 100%. It acts and will be as value storage for the time being no matter the daily or weekly fluctuations.
  • #18,626
  • Edited 10:16pm Apr 30, 2012 10:05pm | Edited 10:16pm
I'ts a riot that they pay him to spew some of the things he does isn't it?

Jeese they even sell their own minted / branded gold and pay the ultimate bear basher to write what? I don't know, I don't consider it analysis.


Quoting beeb
Sorry I don't follow your train of thought...

FWIW I don't get upset by the thought of gold weakening I get upset at inaccurate information such as that peddled by Nadler. Everyone is wrong sometimes but he is a serial offender.....

I don't think the fundamentals or technicals make $700 gold a possibility but as we know anything can happen. To my mind the chance of it going there is less than 1% therefore it can be safely ignored.

Anything else?



beeb

EDIT for example Nadler talks about declines in interest in ETF's but...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,627
  • Apr 30, 2012 10:14pm Apr 30, 2012 10:14pm
What to you is long term? Hour One?

It is simply incorrect to say that looking at long term charts gold is in a decline.

The last fall from the high in the 1900s is mere noise on some charts.

The FACT is that on a weekly, monthly, yearly gold's price is still in a strong uptrend.

People should realize that at these levels a sway in price of 400 to 500 USD is not even decisive, the long term charts can absorb it and still continue to rise.

Sure, it will inflict technical chart damage, but the flipside of such a decline if we talk about it in that manner is clear. Demand steps in to counter the supply which it willl or would at a price of 1100.

In terms of a move upwards of 500 we are just hitting targets projected before.

Again, what charts are you looking at.?.

Quoting Knight Rider
I concur.


I don't pay much attention to these so called experts (or economists) who are often wrong more than 90% of the time. The few lucky ones which are correct in the short term have been wrong several times in the past, if people took the time to study their history. The best advice I can give is just look at a long term chart and study price action. KNOW THAT GOLD IS IN A DECLINE.

The best way one can know whether he is right or wrong is in the size of his trading account.

Anyway, so many people bearish on gold. That's...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,628
  • Apr 30, 2012 10:27pm Apr 30, 2012 10:27pm
I too would render this price a near impossibility. (yes anything is possible)

But, it is the fall from 1020/1050 to 700 that propelled us from
700 to 1920 long term.

I would say 1050 is near untouchable as well even if things really got bad.

1600 hasn't even been tested in months / since the december profit taking to early jan. Months.



Quoting beeb
.

I don't think the fundamentals or technicals make $700 gold a possibility but as we know anything can happen. To my mind the chance of it going there is less than 1% therefore it can be safely ignored.

Anything else?



beeb

EDIT for example Nadler talks about declines in interest in ETF's but "neglects" to comment about the change in physical uptake - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...ds-value-today
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,629
  • Apr 30, 2012 11:10pm Apr 30, 2012 11:10pm
I started 4 months ago, live trading.

Attached picture is the summary for gold only.

I hope I can gain some insight from this forum from expert traders.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-05-01_000259.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #18,630
  • Apr 30, 2012 11:38pm Apr 30, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting mua
I started 4 months ago, live trading.

Attached picture is the summary for gold only.

I hope I can gain some insight from this forum from expert traders.

Thanks
A summary for gold or of your profit? I seriously do not understand what insight you want the experts here to provide you with on that chart of yours.


Do read Post #01 on Mr. XTrade Thread Rules.

My apology if my remark offend you.

Thank you.

fxbreeze
  • #18,631
  • Apr 30, 2012 11:45pm Apr 30, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting fxbreeze
A summary for gold or of your profit? I seriously do not understand what insight you want the experts here to provide you with on that chart of yours.


Do read Post #01 on Mr. XTrade Thread Rules.

My apology if my remark offend you.

Thank you.

fxbreeze
I am new trader and this is my first live trading account. Am i taking too much risk or doing it right..Is my MM okay? That insight I am looking for. I don't have much experience.

Do you know how to remove picture..? I will remove it if it is inappropriate.
  • #18,632
  • May 1, 2012 12:53am May 1, 2012 12:53am
Quoting XTrade
What to you is long term? Hour One?

It is simply incorrect to say that looking at long term charts gold is in a decline.

The last fall from the high in the 1900s is mere noise on some charts.

The FACT is that on a weekly, monthly, yearly gold's price is still in a strong uptrend.

People should realize that at these levels a sway in price of 400 to 500 USD is not even decisive, the long term charts can absorb it and still continue to rise.

Sure, it will inflict technical chart damage, but the flipside of such a decline if we talk about...

Hi X.

I don't have the time to keep repeating myself, but out of respect to your thread, let me answer your question.

Long term to me equals yearly, monthly (and weekly) charts.

I have repeatedly said that I believe GOLD to be in a BULL market. If someone believes gold is going to say $700, don't just believe this, KNOW that gold is going to $700.

Looking at that chart posted earlier, how can anyone believe gold is going to $700 right now?

This is in essence what I was trying to explain. I can see now this was lost on many members here. Perhaps, it was my communication skills, or slight sarcasm that eluded to this misunderstanding.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am a long term bull of GOLD and SILVER and each correction (no matter how harsh) is just an excellent buying opportunity imho. A BULL market is about accumulation, not about selling on the dips, unless you are a short term trader.

.....and for the other comment about emotion. If you have a statistically proven edge and target the inefficiencies of the market, why wouldn't you trade without emotion? It is the novice that trades with greed and fear, which the few of us can be truly grateful.

Best
KR
  • #18,633
  • May 1, 2012 1:01am May 1, 2012 1:01am
Quoting mua
I am new trader and this is my first live trading account. Am i taking too much risk or doing it right..Is my MM okay? That insight I am looking for. I don't have much experience.

Do you know how to remove picture..? I will remove it if it is inappropriate.
Know how to lose correctly is one very important point.
Find your method which you are comfortable with which has a statistically proven edge (this may take some time). Own this method.
Trade unemotionally. Study humun emotions, chaos theory, group mentality.
Understand money management.

Sadly, most people do not do this. Be one of the few that does.
  • #18,634
  • May 1, 2012 1:26am May 1, 2012 1:26am
Not quite sure what we are talking about here anymore. But thanks for trying to bring me up to speed here.

I thought you had stated that it was CLEAR that long term charts were down.

I stated this is simply incorrect.

I'm not sure where 700 came into the mix but maintain and agree it is a highly unlikely target.

Maybe I need to read back more, I have been on a mini break from posting in order to keep concentration up and due to technical computer problems (hardware)


X
Quoting Knight Rider
Hi X.

I don't have the time to keep repeating myself, but out of respect to your thread, let me answer your question.

Long term to me equals yearly, monthly (and weekly) charts.

I have repeatedly said that I believe GOLD to be in a BULL market. If someone believes gold is going to say $700, don't just believe this, KNOW that gold is going to $700.

Looking at that chart posted earlier, how can anyone believe gold is going to $700 right now?

This is in essence what I was trying to explain. I can see now this was lost on many members...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,635
  • May 1, 2012 1:33am May 1, 2012 1:33am
Haven't looked at it from more than a glance yet.

No, leave it up. We just don't want to throw around account numbers and balances. Although I did not state that in the beginning. It is sort of an unspoken thing on the forum I think.

If you want advice ask a question about something specific.

I will look at your picture if you like.


From what I see at a glance you are doing well so far if I read correctly.

But I wouldn't trade with anything higher than 1:50 or 1:100 leverage especially as a noob.

1:500 is surefire account suicide.

A bad thing that happens to noobs sometimes is that they do well initially trading with too much leverage, then one day the market drops out and you are highly leveraged on the wrong side. You end up losing either all your profit or half your account.

Then noobs have a tendency to trade even more aggressive doubling up while they should be scaling back.

I would start by lowering your leverage to something normal like 1:50 or if you can 1:75

and see how you do then. This way if the market goes nuts, and you get a margin call you can live to trade another day.

Do read post one anyway, there is a link on my signature.


Quoting mua
I started 4 months ago, live trading.

Attached picture is the summary for gold only.

I hope I can gain some insight from this forum from expert traders.

Thanks
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,636
  • May 1, 2012 7:04am May 1, 2012 7:04am
Quoting Knight Rider
Know how to lose correctly is one very important point.
Find your method which you are comfortable with which has a statistically proven edge (this may take some time). Own this method.
Trade unemotionally. Study humun emotions, chaos theory, group mentality.
Understand money management.

Sadly, most people do not do this. Be one of the few that does.
Very well said Knight Rider - losing correctly is vital in order to remain in the game. Have a strategy for winning and a strategy for losing. Most important of all, especially with gold (and this is said by X on his first post) DO NOT Overtrade and stick to your Losing Strategy.

With regard to price, I believe over the next 6-8 weeks we will see some serious spikes in both directions.

On the fundies side, there's a lot of stuff brewing in the pot and once something goes wrong I'm sure we'll see some massive price movements.

I just want to make sure that I'm with the flow of the market http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
patience is a virtue
  • #18,637
  • May 1, 2012 7:30am May 1, 2012 7:30am
back to basics :

in these days , does classical Technical Analysis(TA) apply to Gold Charts ?

or there is no correlation to the gold charts and TA ... its all just manipulation by the Big Boys to cover all their mistakes ?
  • #18,638
  • May 1, 2012 8:14am May 1, 2012 8:14am
Quoting TheArcher
back to basics :

in these days , does classical Technical Analysis(TA) apply to Gold Charts ?

or there is no correlation to the gold charts and TA ... its all just manipulation by the Big Boys to cover all their mistakes ?
I don't know what you mean by "classical" TA as opposed to any other kind. And what "mistakes"?

Gold and silver are manipulated markets and IMHO you need to appreciate this in order to understand what is happening. If you don't think TA has been of assistance then I would humbly suggest you look at the thread again in more detail and/or do some more work to hone your analysis.

beeb
  • #18,639
  • May 1, 2012 8:23am May 1, 2012 8:23am
Quoting Knight Rider
.... Perhaps, it was my communication skills,

........why wouldn't you trade without emotion? .......
In my mind there is no perhaps about it.

and

I'd love to trade without emotion but I am human. If you have a pulse you are human too.
  • #18,640
  • May 1, 2012 10:02am May 1, 2012 10:02am
Quoting jsr
Targets:

1 - 1600
2 - 1450 (1400)
3 - 1600
4 - 1650 (1670)
5 - 1700 - 1800 in 2103?


Can you explain this, please?

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