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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,501
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:39am Apr 18, 2012 9:39am
Inverse H&S in H1?

Well, we've been advised not to pay much attention to that stuff in lower timeframes, but who knows.

If price breaks that descending blue line we may expect 1670.
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  • #18,502
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:57am Apr 18, 2012 9:57am
Quoting gulii
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1334682000.php

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34179.html?
Thanks for sharing.
  • #18,503
  • Apr 18, 2012 12:05pm Apr 18, 2012 12:05pm
I am neither bullish or bearish at the moment.

But if I was bullish and if I were to look at other people's opinion (which I don't btw) I would look for those who were making the bearish case to see what I might be missing.

And if I was bearish I would look to those who were making the bullish case.

Because it is always easy to find those who agree with you.

Newsletter writers and bloggers are a dime a dozen.
  • #18,504
  • Apr 18, 2012 12:37pm Apr 18, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting SunTrader
I am neither bullish or bearish at the moment.


Newsletter writers and bloggers are a dime a dozen.
I notice your by-line says trade the reaction not the news -

i notice when some numbers come out like NFP, the mkt may whipsaw in $10 range anywhere from 15 mins to 1.5 hrs before settling on a direction. Or the mkt may not move at all.

What do you look for in the reaction (chart) to make a trading decision?
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,505
  • Apr 18, 2012 1:44pm Apr 18, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting jimobiwan
I notice your by-line says trade the reaction not the news -

i notice when some numbers come out like NFP, the mkt may whipsaw in $10 range anywhere from 15 mins to 1.5 hrs before settling on a direction. Or the mkt may not move at all.

What do you look for in the reaction (chart) to make a trading decision?
Well first my trades last for hours to days so although I don't totally ignore NFP its doesn't effect my decision making all that much. That is as long as I picked the overall direction correctly and then of course a complete reversal doesn't take place either.

But the times when I trade shorter term there is the 1-2-3 pattern common across many markets of once news comes out a thrust, a reversal and then a continuation of the original thrust. Doesn't work all the time but approx 65-75% of the time it does.

HTH
  • #18,506
  • Apr 18, 2012 6:04pm Apr 18, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well first my trades last for hours to days so although I don't totally ignore NFP its doesn't effect my decision making all that much. That is as long as I picked the overall direction correctly and then of course a complete reversal doesn't take place either.

But the times when I trade shorter term there is the 1-2-3 pattern common across many markets of once news comes out a thrust, a reversal and then a continuation of the original thrust. Doesn't work all the time but approx 65-75% of the time it does.

HTH
Thanks for that.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,507
  • Apr 18, 2012 10:35pm Apr 18, 2012 10:35pm
Quoting lilpip
2nd quarter and single year trendguide or pivot area is 34.20-50 so bias is down from there, once above then will get moving.
bears continue the trend.
single year, quarterly, monthly and weekly trends all to the south.
down from april monthly pivot or trendguide 32.50-55 area.
down from weekly pivot 31.90 with support at 30.76 area this week.
weekly
33.02
31.90
30.76
  • #18,508
  • Apr 19, 2012 1:41am Apr 19, 2012 1:41am
not sure if it is so much "bears" or just a sliding / ranging price due to lack of strong buying.

We haven't moved much either way.

just a thought.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,509
  • Apr 19, 2012 2:59am Apr 19, 2012 2:59am
1636 interim support holds gold getting bid up.

cable is still on fire!!!!!!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,510
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:02am Apr 19, 2012 9:02am
Looks like the makings of another outside day up.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,511
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:34am Apr 19, 2012 11:34am
It hits 1650 and falls back down...who is holding the gold down?
  • #18,512
  • Apr 19, 2012 12:35pm Apr 19, 2012 12:35pm
We've damaged the chart patttern again, just made a lower low on the swing line.

BB narrowing in and 100dma made bearish cross over.

Below for support i see lower bb at 1620 then last low of 1613.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,513
  • Apr 19, 2012 12:57pm Apr 19, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting jimobiwan
We've damaged the chart patttern again, just made a lower low on the swing line.

BB narrowing in and 100dma made bearish cross over.

Below for support i see lower bb at 1620 then last low of 1613.
Well, that's good news for me, because my target is 1625. I'm not that greedy.
  • #18,514
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:18pm Apr 19, 2012 10:18pm
In a 20 USD range.

We NEED a sustained break

North to break support and attract buyers,

or

South,

to offer a better price and attract buyers.

XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,515
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:18pm Apr 19, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting XTrade
not sure if it is so much "bears" or just a sliding / ranging price due to lack of strong buying.

We haven't moved much either way.

just a thought.
Its both, bears pushed her below 2012 single year pivot 34.50-55 area and not much movement in 2nd quarter.
same with sis, pushed below the secondary trends quarterly pivot 1688-89 and ranging, bulls have the primary trend above single year pivot 1598-1600.
  • #18,516
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:24pm Apr 19, 2012 10:24pm
True, yet I like to take into account how any FX price or commod price usually slides when there are not strong bids up.

Thus we stay in the range,

there seems to be an area below that the bears are afraid to touch, let's say sub 1600 for now, due to the likely chance that any majpr dip will be bought.


YET.

At the same rate, we are not powering above resistances because the large cap specs just don't seem to be there.
I attribute some of this to China,s bs news all the time, as well as the simple price of GOLD, she is not a cheap one per oz, thus keeping out some of the small caps.

we will get a turn and I am leaning towards this summer being volatile again.

Quoting lilpip
Its both, bears pushed her below 2012 single year pivot 34.50-55 area and not much movement in 2nd quarter.
same with sis, pushed below the secondary trends quarterly pivot 1688-89 and ranging, bulls have the trend above single year pivot 1598-1600.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,517
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:40pm Apr 19, 2012 10:40pm
Quoting XTrade
True, yet I like to take into account how any FX price or commod price usually slides when there are not strong bids up.

Thus we stay in the range,

there seems to be an area below that the bears are afraid to touch, let's say sub 1600 for now, due to the likely chance that any majpr dip will be bought.


YET.

At the same rate, we are not powering above resistances because the large cap specs just don't seem to be there.
I attribute some of this to China,s bs news all the time, as well as the simple price of GOLD, she is not a cheap one per...
personally I think the market is spooked and hesitant because of the past manipulations, the orchestrated take downs created doubt and 2nd guessing.
one thing for certain is we have a nice treadline for a couple years leading up and is at the 1600 area and on the other hand we have 4 days telling us we need to get above 1654-57 if were going north
  • #18,518
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:03pm Apr 19, 2012 11:03pm
Quote
personally I think the market is spooked and hesitant because of the past manipulations, the orchestrated take downs created doubt and 2nd guessing.


If you look at the 1 minute chart, yesterday a straight fall came in at exactly 16:30 and then a straight rise at 18:00

But this shows one thing: the market is huge now (with new Bro kers coming in every day) the manipulators cannot control the prices much.

It is the general confidence level that is keeping the prices here.
  • #18,519
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:10pm Apr 19, 2012 11:10pm
Silver's sentiment has dropped from 78% to only 53% Bullish, this is what even the small manipulations can do to the general confidence level.

Lets see, when they drop it this time how low silver and gold goes.
  • #18,520
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:19pm Apr 19, 2012 11:19pm
I agree.

Quoting lilpip
personally I think the market is spooked and hesitant because of the past manipulations, the orchestrated take downs created doubt and 2nd guessing.
one thing for certain is we have a nice treadline for a couple years leading up and is at the 1600 area and on the other hand we have 4 days telling us we need to get above 1654-57 if were going north
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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