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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,121
  • Mar 29, 2012 11:42am Mar 29, 2012 11:42am
Quote
At this point fundamentals are noise.


Agree, for a third day in a row, gold is repeating the same pattern, almost:


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  • #18,122
  • Edited 11:55am Mar 29, 2012 11:53am | Edited 11:55am
FXCM's volume is totally different.

But I don't see peaks in futures volume.

It's kind of flat.

EDIT: Oh, I see another indi. That could be usefull. It does have peaks.
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  • #18,123
  • Mar 29, 2012 12:30pm Mar 29, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting forexfacts
Agree, for a third day in a row, gold is repeating the same pattern, almost:


Attachment
wow. quite identical for the last 3 days. 30th is the last trading day of March and also the 1st quarter. could there be any significant breakout or the same pattern again?
  • #18,124
  • Mar 29, 2012 12:37pm Mar 29, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting jsr
I think I will trade only what I see, not paying attention to news and fundamentals.......
+ 1000%

News is like statistics. It can be manipulated whichever way you want it to read.

Bulls see price held down, bears see price held up.

As soon as someone has a bias I take what they have to say with a grain of salt. A grain about the size of K2.
  • #18,125
  • Mar 29, 2012 12:51pm Mar 29, 2012 12:51pm
What broker is this? If it is an FX broker that is just quoting CFD prices they will likely be very similar..

In which case we would need say an H4 chart from beeb's broker b/c I know he does not trade CFDs and a spot chart from a decent FX broker for a true compa

Not sure, they look very similar.

What I think I was trying to say in the in the original post, (can't find it cause it wasn't "quoted" properly for some reason..

where did you find that anyway??

What I find interesting is to look at some of the months far further in advance and their prices.

Take a look

EDIT: WOWOWOW these have changed drastically since I last looked a few months ago. That last contract was over 2050 Now I think it's in the 18s..


Quoting jimobiwan
as promised, here is a side by side comparison for weekly gold.

XAU is on the left, Front Month GOld FUtures is on the right.

Second chart is daily.

DMAs are 18, 45, 100, 200
Slow Sto and MACD shown

Does anyone see any advantage of monitoring G.GCC1 to anticipate XAU moves?
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,126
  • Mar 29, 2012 12:54pm Mar 29, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting jimobiwan
notihing shows up on xau
If that is $XAU this is an index comprises of gold stocks. Then to get volume you would have to look at the individual stocks comprising the index.

ABX
AEM
AUY
BVN
FCX
GFI
GG
GOLD
HMY
KGC
NEW
PAAS
RGLD
SLW
SSRI
  • #18,127
  • Mar 29, 2012 12:58pm Mar 29, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
If that is $XAU this is an index comprises of gold stocks. Then to get volume you would have to look at the individual stocks comprising the index.
Its the spot price. This platform calls it LGD. Other platforms call it XAU.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,128
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:01pm Mar 29, 2012 1:01pm
[quote=XTrade;5524761]What broker is this? If it is an FX broker that is just quoting CFD prices they will likely be very similar..


this is a chart/data source only. You cant trade with it.

This is the source http://www.tq.net/ENGLISH/winquote/winquote.htm
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,129
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:04pm Mar 29, 2012 1:04pm
[quote=XTrade;5524761]What broker is this? If it is an FX broker that is Not sure, they look very similar.


maybe if i choose a month like K12 for May gold, instead of "front month" (setting of C1) it may show a difference.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,130
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:05pm Mar 29, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
If that is $XAU this is an index comprises of gold stocks. Then to get volume you would have to look at the individual stocks comprising the index.

ABX
AEM
AUY
BVN
FCX
GFI
GG
GOLD
HMY
KGC
NEW
PAAS
RGLD
SLW
SSRI

thanks for that.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,131
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:10pm Mar 29, 2012 1:10pm
"...gold-backed exchange-traded funds did not see “significant outflows” in recent days".

Is there anywhere we can monitor the numbers in real time?
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,132
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:17pm Mar 29, 2012 1:17pm
You don't have to trade fundamentals if you don't want to, yet when trading gold it is very important to be aware of the underlying fundamentals at all times.

Things like -
- Inflation / Deflation
- The USD -- US policy and rates
- Supply and Demand

Being that Gold is a commodity and there is always an almost finite amount of it in pure bullion or coin (investment grade/jewelry/industrial grade) above ground at any given time
there are more underlying fundamentals to pay attention to than when dealing with a FIAT currency that can be devalued and printed into oblivion by firing up the press.

This is not the same with Gold.

You should also read headlines and if you are not going to react to the releases of news than you should not trade during big releases like the NFP.

Taking a position based on techs before a release like the NFP can be suicide, because the release is usually going to push the yellow metal in one direction or another, validating your tech setup or invalidating it and putting you in a shit position.

When we were averaging 50 USD swings in a 24 hour period, a release like the NFP could move gold 100 USD if strong.

So would you really want to enter without at least looking and then be 100 USD negative if you are wrong?

Fundies are important in Gold. I sincerely suggest you learn about them
Techs are important as well. The ideal is to have an understanding of both even if you want to focus more on one.

Here are some results from just a quick web search.

GOLD FUNDAMENTALS
http://www.itmtrading.com/fundamentals_gold.asp
Quote
What Are the Fundamentals for Gold?

It is extremely important to understand the fundamentals of the gold market before buying gold coins.

The fundamentals of the gold market play a large role in determining the direction and price of gold, though certainly other factors play a role too, emotional factors in particular. Because of that, it is a mistake to focus solely on fundamentals when analyzing the gold market.

Of course, the basic fundamental factors impacting the price of gold can be classified into two broad categories: supply and...

http://www.tradegoldonline.com/FUNDAMENTALS.html
Quote
When an investor analyzes gold, or any investment for that matter, they take a look at two distinct aspects of information that will help and guide them to decide whether their purchase or sale of gold (or comparable investment) is a smart decision to be made. These two distinct aspects are fundamentals, and technicals. Fundamental information is based on the analysis of the investments financial statements, its general health, it’s history and current history, as well as its competitors and it’s standing in the markets. Technical analysis is...

http://www.currentmetals.com/preciou...ilver-futures/
Quote
The first fundamental you will look at for Gold and Silver is supply and demand. When you have an excess supply with low demand you are going to see metal prices fall. In the case of this market it is the opposite, when demand rises and supply falls metal prices rally sharply.

Another fundamental for the precious metal prices would be low or negative interest rates. If the return on bonds, equities and real estate is not adequately compensating for risk and inflation then the demand for gold and other alternative investments such as commodities...

Quoting jsr
I think I will trade only what I see, not paying attention to news and fundamentals.

Charts are telling me more dependable stories.

At this point fundamentals are noise.

I'll read forecasts, but gum is chewed, not swallowed.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,133
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:21pm Mar 29, 2012 1:21pm
Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?

Please try to make sure the links to quotes (don't care about these) work,
they are a way of linking side conversations togethe if someone wants to read back at some point.
Thanks!
XT[quote=jimobiwan;5524795]
Quoting XTrade
What broker is this? If it is an FX broker that is Not sure, they look very similar.


maybe if i choose a month like K12 for May gold, instead of "front month" (setting of C1) it may show a difference.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,134
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:36pm Mar 29, 2012 1:36pm
GDX being slammed, sooner or later somethings gotta give unless we see divine intervention, the GDX is probably heading south, a weekly megaphone pattern.
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  • #18,135
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:04pm Mar 29, 2012 4:04pm
Split, Spot took a dip yesterday from the little break up we had the days before.

However, The channel bottom (inner) has been tested by the bears, yet the bulls seem to have clearly rejected this move any further than a small dip through the line so far.

Channel is always in blue on my charts.

The midline should be gray dashed

Breakout top line Red for resistance

Dip line should be green for buys.

Need to check silver now.

I have noted with arrows 3 major (for the scale of things - they are actually small) price movements and tests of the channel bottom.

Now, in the event we rise again and there is a FOURTH test, just like a confirmation 4th bar, it could in a technical sense trigger a breakout.

We have been basically ranging for weeks now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,136
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:50pm Mar 29, 2012 5:50pm
[quote=XTrade;5524856]Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?

Please try to make sure the links to quotes (don't care about these) work,
they are a way of linking side conversations togethe if someone wants to read back at some point.
Thanks!
XT
I did link. I think its in the editing. Sometimes i cut all but the words i am replying to and then the link is gone even though i dont cut the "[quote=XTrade;5524856]"
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,137
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:01pm Mar 29, 2012 6:01pm
[quote=XTrade;5524856]Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?

Please try to make sure the links to quotes (don't care about these) work,
they are a way of linking side conversations togethe if someone wants to read back at some point.
Thanks!
XT
"Not sure what I am doing wrong. I press the "Quote" button. Type my stuff below the original. But when its sent out there is no blue box like you guys have it"

[quote=XTrade;5524856]Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,138
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:47pm Mar 29, 2012 6:47pm
[quote=jimobiwan;5525478] <-- this should be down where i put the *

LOOK UP^^^^^^^^^^ QUOTE IS IN CAPS, and the only way it will link is if it has that code.

NOW LOOK DOWN VVVVVVVVVVVVVVV quote is in lowercase,
let me switch it and see if it works.

Quoting XTrade
Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?

Please try to make sure the links to quotes (don't care about these) work,
they are a way of linking side conversations togethe if someone wants to read back at some point.
Thanks!
XT
[
* STAR VVV

[quote=jimobiwan;5525478]
"Not sure what I am doing wrong. I press the "Quote" button. Type my stuff below the original. But when its sent out there is no blue box like you guys have it"


This is wrong also ---- the end my quote should not have the code,
plus it looks like you are typing inside the person (me) that you are quoting.
Quote
Jim,
How come when you quote me there is no link?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,139
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:49pm Mar 29, 2012 6:49pm
Jimmy,

Here you quoted Sun Trader and it is fine.,

You must be typing inside the quote or deleting one of the brackets.

W/O the Brackets even one missing the """"""s will not work.

Quoting jimobiwan
thanks for that.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,140
  • Mar 29, 2012 8:51pm Mar 29, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting farn
wow. quite identical for the last 3 days. 30th is the last trading day of March and also the 1st quarter. could there be any significant breakout or the same pattern again?

The green line(today) has gone to marry the red line(yesterday), this chart of 3 days has always been a problem for me, it has never been identical for straight 3 days


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