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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #17,401
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:48am Mar 11, 2012 3:48am
Quoting nim1984
Blythe, do you come up with your own trading plan of when to enter/stoploss etc. using your neowave knowledge, or does the neowave service website provide you with the trade setups.

Thanks.
I don't use Neely's service. It's primarily based on River Theory rather than neowave. I have nothing against NRT but until I fully understand how it works I'm not going to put money at risk.
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #17,402
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:23am Mar 11, 2012 4:23am
Quoting XTrade
NOW - on the GOLD daily it looks as though the SECOND SHOULDER IS FORMING
to match the FIRST SHOULDER I underlined in red.

THE HEAD and NECK are in place.

We will see....... It is not perfect but they never are.

Stocks trend much more smoothly at times and these patterns are based on stock trading.


NOW the neck is in the proper place, - the pattern failed initially due to the sell off, it looks like it is changing and may still be valid. SEE THE RED ARROW.
No promises.
I am bullish anyway and targeting 2100 ultimately off the symmetrical...
a Clean break and retest of 1739-40 would confirm any further upmove. thats till that level of course. i cant help but think the right shoulder needs to dip in a bit more south for a better looking H and s
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,403
  • Mar 11, 2012 5:18am Mar 11, 2012 5:18am
Here is my chart on gold. Thats pitchwork with fibo lines. As you may see prices seems hover around those levels.
Red cirles are at equal distance from each other and leftest pitchwork point
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  • #17,404
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:36am Mar 11, 2012 9:36am
Quoting bumapatria
a Clean break and retest of 1739-40 would confirm any further upmove. thats till that level of course. i cant help but think the right shoulder needs to dip in a bit more south for a better looking H and s
what makes you think the right shoulder will dip more south? a more "perfect" pattern u suppose....
trading is my zen
  • #17,405
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:07am Mar 11, 2012 11:07am
It looks to me that it had tested 1666 area and bounced North
  • #17,406
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:27am Mar 11, 2012 11:27am
Gold price is less dependent on USD with all the various other currency issues and debasement.

The Euro tanks - Gold should rise
The USD tanks - Gold should Rise.

Also when looking at the USDX bear in mind that 58% of it is weighted against the most troubled currency major besides the USD the EURO.

Thus, any swing in the EURO artificially pumps up the USD.

When in fact it's value is still shit.

I feel the USDX is an antiquated index and needs overhauling BIGTIME.

NO AUD/KIWI ----- ABSOLUTELY no relation to China's CNY pegged and manipulated by the Chinese GVMNT or not - it is of GREAT importance in relation to the dollar.

One of the pairs USD/CHF that actively shows dollar sentiment daily is like 2% i think.....

Quoting ShirleyLo
I've fork similar to that one of yours. Looks like bear failed to take control unless 15xx in sight again. which is.....farrr...faaar....awayyy.................by looking at the head n shoulder, which stock is that of your submitted h&s chart?

notice how EUR keeps going down and USDX keeps going up by 300 pips. While gold has 100-150 pips ranging all week, we were easily overshadowed by gold's "down" movement for a couple of days.

selling trap.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,407
  • Mar 11, 2012 12:22pm Mar 11, 2012 12:22pm
XT

You just answered the very question I had in mind about the behavior of Gold last Friday compared to currencies. Remember, I'm a novice in Gold.

I was watching your demo account started early last week and on Thursday I saw it brimfull with crisp green pips/dollars. My though was that you would harvest all USD sells before the NFP and enter again right after it in the opposite direction. But you didn't. (you did close some though).

I understand your point re the fundamental weakening values of USD and EUR. However, when the EUR is hammered, the USD has no way but north.

I'm guessing you are working on a longer time frame. I'm a day trader and when a trade runs well enough, I cash in part and leave the rest with trailing stops.

So could you explain to me how you go about those FX trades?



Quoting XTrade
Gold price is less dependent on USD with all the various other currency issues and debasement.

The Euro tanks - Gold should rise
The USD tanks - Gold should Rise.

Also when looking at the USDX bear in mind that 58% of it is weighted against the most troubled currency major besides the USD the EURO.

Thus, any swing in the EURO artificially pumps up the USD.

When in fact it's value is still shit.

I feel the USDX is an antiquated index and needs overhauling BIGTIME.

NO AUD/KIWI ----- ABSOLUTELY no relation to China's CNY pegged and manipulated...
  • #17,408
  • Mar 11, 2012 12:25pm Mar 11, 2012 12:25pm
X if indices such as Dow tanks. gold should rise as well right?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,409
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:02pm Mar 11, 2012 1:02pm
Gotta say that I don't read too much into head and shoulders formations. We're pattern-seeking mammals and to my mind they are too easy to see in too many situations.....

To illustrate this point, here is daily SI with a massive inverse h and s (assuming you ignore the single bar marked x which reversed to a high close anyway).....

beeb
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  • #17,410
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:07pm Mar 11, 2012 1:07pm
IMHO a chart like this Daily SI gives so much more information and so many more opportunities than just waiting for a neckline to break - or not...

beeb
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  • #17,411
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:15pm Mar 11, 2012 1:15pm
Xtrade brother can you give your comments on EURO ? Do you see any retrace in Euro at market open?

Where do you see EU next week is it go to go with bear side?
  • #17,412
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:22pm Mar 11, 2012 1:22pm
i did upload some indis and systems at the grave yard enjoy
  • #17,413
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:33pm Mar 11, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting bumapatria
X if indices such as Dow tanks. gold should rise as well right?
This wasn't addressed to me but I will give it a go (I wrote my undergraduate thesis on this topic).

Don't forget a lot of institutions hold gold as a safety net against more (comparatively) risky positions in e.g. equities, debt. Their counterparties may want them to post up more collateral in the case that these positions look as if they are turning bad. In my experience there is a very short list of stuff that is accepted as collateral, and gold was not on there. So they would have to liquidate their gold positions to post up $, £, € etc. to their counterparties. Selling gold pushes price down obviously so there has often been a situation where an equity market drop has meant a gold market drop, especially in the past 9 months or so.
  • #17,414
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:16pm Mar 11, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting duzza
This wasn't addressed to me but I will give it a go (I wrote my undergraduate thesis on this topic).

Don't forget a lot of institutions hold gold as a safety net against more (comparatively) risky positions in e.g. equities, debt. Their counterparties may want them to post up more collateral in the case that these positions look as if they are turning bad. In my experience there is a very short list of stuff that is accepted as collateral, and gold was not on there. So they would have to liquidate their gold positions to post up $, £, € etc. to...
I concur. In recent months gold seems to be the first reach when funds need to stump up cash for whatever reason.
  • #17,415
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:35pm Mar 11, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting duzza
This wasn't addressed to me but I will give it a go (I wrote my undergraduate thesis on this topic).

Don't forget a lot of institutions hold gold as a safety net against more (comparatively) risky positions in e.g. equities, debt. Their counterparties may want them to post up more collateral in the case that these positions look as if they are turning bad. In my experience there is a very short list of stuff that is accepted as collateral, and gold was not on there. So they would have to liquidate their gold positions to post up $, £, € etc....
Look up LIBOR-GOFO to get more info in this subject. recent selloff in gold does coincides with ECB's LTRO.
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #17,416
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:42pm Mar 11, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting XTrade

Thus, any swing in the EURO artificially pumps up the USD.
NO AUD/KIWI ----- ABSOLUTELY no relation to China's CNY pegged and manipulated by the Chinese GVMNT or not - it is of GREAT importance in relation to the dollar.

One of the pairs USD/CHF that actively shows dollar sentiment daily is like 2% i think.....
X, I know you also run NZDUSD thread. I posted today solid kiwi count http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post5463395
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #17,417
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:09pm Mar 11, 2012 4:09pm
Precious metal plunge part 3?

http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/pr...-iii%20-116528

What do you think?
  • #17,418
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:28pm Mar 11, 2012 4:28pm
Being specifically that the account was a demo, I had actually traded it to mimic my live positions, some before, ie: GBP/JPY trades were all executed on demo first.

All gold/ AUD/ Kiwi / and Swissy trades live first.

This is why the account was in profit.

I knew very well, that I could lose everything in one day if my pre-determined negative NFP trades were unsuccessful as they were on Friday.

I did this
A. Because it was a demo
B. To show people how easy it is to over leverage and lose everything in a few hours that you worked for all week.

Now, I think - although I am having tech problems with the account and don't even see it as a possibility on the thread it may still be open.

So come Monday or Tuesday (maybe tonight) I will open it up and see where these trades have gone.

Another part of it is this is still only an equity loss, not good for any trader yet not a loss of booked profit, and I will add no trade even the 8 standard lots I shorted of USD/CHF went above a drawdown of .2% at five they would be cut.

Which trades are you asking about? Gold? Position trading FX?
Another note is this was a news day and sure fire going to skew the markets.
So although the equity is slim maybe 2k. As a position trader you cannot simply close trades that you feel may rebound or at least retrace to an optimal exit point if they are in fact invalid.

The market always corrects, there is a high probability of a 50% retracement.

Also, if the Euro thing gets settled at some point in the coming sessions it will rally to levels people will not be expecting.

The USD has more problems besides unemployment. A few month of positive NFPs are nothing in the scheme of recovery, show me 4 consecutive 1/4s... At least.

This country is so in debt and printing money faster than I can shuffle a deck of cards, in my opinion we are on the razor's edge of hyperinflation or a mild very very very very slow economic recovery.

Which still doesn't say much for the old greenback as more and more countries are looking to diversify FX holdings into other currencies like the NOK, DKK, CNY, AUD, GOLD, SILVER, YEN. Swissy etc.

Quoting The Camel
XT

You just answered the very question I had in mind about the behavior of Gold last Friday compared to currencies. Remember, I'm a novice in Gold.

I was watching your demo account started early last week and on Thursday I saw it brimfull with crisp green pips/dollars. My though was that you would harvest all USD sells before the NFP and enter again right after it in the opposite direction. But you didn't. (you did close some though).

I understand your point re the fundamental weakening values of USD and EUR. However, when the EUR is hammered,...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,419
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:32pm Mar 11, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting Sebastien972
Precious metal plunge part 3?

http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/pr...-iii%20-116528

What do you think?

Without wishing to be rude, there are 17500 comments in this thread answering the question you have posed. What do YOU think?

beeb
  • #17,420
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:33pm Mar 11, 2012 4:33pm
Quoting beeb
Without wishing to be rude, there are 17500 comments in this thread answering the question you have posed. What do YOU think?

beeb
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
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