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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #16,461
  • Feb 17, 2012 5:38pm Feb 17, 2012 5:38pm
I remain bullish long term yet the range is getting a bit frustrating.

Expecting more next week. Things to watch for

US unemployment
Inflation claims - inflation helps gold rise usually.
FOMC members speaking

Just check the FF calendar in the latter part of the week.


Gold is can often be moved more on news than on techs, and we have long periods of ranges. Great for scalping.
Quoting fuse
I ended up going short for a few pips. Lets see what happens on Monday. Chart H4
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,462
  • Feb 17, 2012 5:45pm Feb 17, 2012 5:45pm
Study some chart patterns too, gold will create one and sometimes repeat it a few times.

1400 would put the bullish movement at way too much risk it is unlikely to be hit and seems almost an arbitrary target as of now, the price has not been below 1500 in months Plus there is super support at 1515/20 on the weekly now.

Next the most I could see on a dip is 1600 and that's pushing it, i'm even a bit more conservative with 1650 but could see a wick of 50 bucks on some big news....

Immediate support at 1700
Quoting forexfacts
I am coming to know that gold or any other commodity really do respect Technicals (chart movements), generally.

Fundamentals and Price do matter a lot, They are the market movers, they are the reason why we see chart moving up and down otherwise it would be a flat line without any Pulse if it only follows Technicalities.

I have always been a Price-follower, for years, but looking at technicalities it seems we won't see $1400s, so i'll have to quit my $1400 before $2000 slogan.

It is more like $1600 before $2000.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,463
  • Feb 17, 2012 8:16pm Feb 17, 2012 8:16pm
Yes, look back a few pages, I think yesterday I posted a snip of the broken line.

Quoting Paras4you
Attachment

Hey
Can we say frm the above chart tht the Gold has changed its trend and would be moving upward.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,464
  • Edited 8:41pm Feb 17, 2012 8:25pm | Edited 8:41pm
Some Mods made to your chart, X marks the spot. Note the reaction at trendline cross....
Quoting TheArcher
gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold01.png Size: 122 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,465
  • Feb 17, 2012 9:13pm Feb 17, 2012 9:13pm
Looking at the kitco historical charts got me thinkin. If Gold continues on this incline, where will it take us? The price swings are going to be enormous in the next couple of years if this is even close to being realistic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,466
  • Feb 17, 2012 9:22pm Feb 17, 2012 9:22pm
You are correct my friend. Things are not getting better in terms of global finance, debt, employment, turmoil, etc. all which help gold's allure as a store of value / wealth preservation / global currency.

Some of my buddies from the gold forum have made these charts, using the french curve as a technical projection tool and they look exactly like what you have made.


Some extreme bulls think 5000 $ is possible in the coming years.

The question what will the swings be like is a good one.

Perhaps 300 USD trading days?....
She can swing 100 now on a volume maxed volatile market with news especially.

Quoting Sreym33
Looking at the kitco historical charts got me thinkin. If Gold continues on this incline, where will it take us? The price swings are going to be enormous in the next couple of years if this is even close to being realistic.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,467
  • Feb 17, 2012 10:15pm Feb 17, 2012 10:15pm
haven't posted much in a while - links

METALS OUTLOOK: Higher Prices Expected Next Week, But Outcome Hinges On Eurogroup Meeting


"out of 32 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those 23 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and four are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Market watchers said the most important factor for precious metals markets – and financial markets in general – will be the announcement from the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Markets across the board rallied on Friday initially, optimistic that some sort of deal can be reached with Greece so the country can get its second bailout. However, profit-taking going into the long weekend capped gains in equities and weighed on gold into the closing bell."
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,468
  • Feb 17, 2012 10:48pm Feb 17, 2012 10:48pm
I have a similar idea brewing technically except I am using the weekly not daily chart. Yet still maintain my original view and analysis for the broken symmetrical triangle off the weekly channel, if you have not seen the posts or the chart the spread of the tri was 400 BUX
and the target 2100 from 1665 break, which can be seen below.

First noted was the $80 (actual bar is 90+ USD) appx breakout (above DTL) bar of the symmetrical triangle bullish.

Now with almost three spinning tops (first more of a bear hammer) and a slight decline in highs and volume there appears to be a possibility of a bull flag on the weekly. Chart below. Expected target would be appx 1810 from a possible test of the 1700 area, thus, resulting in a new test of the channel top. Not yet the breakout line (in red) channel is light blue.

It's not technically perfect, but things are moving slow and a break will come one way or the other soon.

That is idea one. Shown in chart circled and an idea volume bar.
If this does not occur in the next weekly bar I will consider the idea null and void. As it would just be a pattern in another larger pattern as well as the
pushing into FIVE weeks would make it a range and a bit long for a flag time wise.

In the case that the price just stalls,
Idea two would be a test of the broken triangle at 1665 area then continuation north after support is confirmed and the move to push onward to 2100 would start from the 400 USD width of broken sym T.

ABOUT FLAGS

Gold Survey
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,469
  • Edited 12:10am Feb 18, 2012 12:00am | Edited 12:10am
Here is an older chart for the sake of the triangle.

Bullish break. There is one correction that I should note that needs to be made. The measure of for the target comes from
the POINT OF BREAKOUT - NOT - The tip of the triangle. There is a 50 usd wiggle area, depending on where one uses the
bottom of the triangle. In this case it could be either the channel or the dip line. either way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 month Traingle bull break explained.GIF Size: 40 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,470
  • Feb 18, 2012 12:56am Feb 18, 2012 12:56am
the battle and bias down from 1730, up from 1700
this week watching how 1730 and 1700 responds.
the fri. drop below last weeks 1730-33 with 1722 close noted.
  • #16,471
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:08am Feb 18, 2012 4:08am
Quoting XTrade
Study some chart patterns too, gold will create one and sometimes repeat it a few times.

1400 would put the bullish movement at way too much risk it is unlikely to be hit and seems almost an arbitrary target as of now, the price has not been below 1500 in months Plus there is super support at 1515/20 on the weekly now.

Next the most I could see on a dip is 1600 and that's pushing it, i'm even a bit more conservative with 1650 but could see a wick of 50 bucks on some big news....

Immediate support at 1700
Hi XTrade,
i practice neowave, and drop below 1500 would definitely say that a major correction of a uptrend is on the way. here's the projection for short term. looks like gold is about to get out of the range. 1737 is the level where the count becomes invalid. 1670 is the immediate target.

blythe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 24 KB
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #16,472
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:13am Feb 18, 2012 4:13am
Quoting Sreym33
Looking at the kitco historical charts got me thinkin. If Gold continues on this incline, where will it take us? The price swings are going to be enormous in the next couple of years if this is even close to being realistic.

This can happen if they keep printing paper without proper backing, but i think this is too optimistic, those who print paper will surely come with some better plans so lets see
  • #16,473
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:18am Feb 18, 2012 4:18am
X Trade, very useful posts man, Thanks.

BTW, where is Bemac ? and Suntrader ? Suntrader's input is also very important because we at times become too much bullish so someone needs to make a correction
  • #16,474
  • Feb 18, 2012 7:00am Feb 18, 2012 7:00am
Greetings all hope you people are having a wonderful weekend I would like to say that i will be watching opening prices on Monday closely with silver i was watching the hour chart on the fifth and sixth last candles on Friday and the 33.05 persistently got hammered at least 15 times . There seems to be some heavy resistance at this level. Knowing that there is a holiday in the states on Monday am hoping it stays higher than this level upon opening hopefully no more retests and onwards and upwards this week will be trying to open some long positions. i have changed my sentiment to bullish after my weekly candle prediction i was hoping for downturn but basically got sideways movement instead
  • #16,475
  • Edited 2:22pm Feb 18, 2012 1:50pm | Edited 2:22pm
Hello,
Interesting yet in response the view I have is as such.

1500 has not been so much as tested in the spot market for over 7 months. This vastly increases demand at said level, not only by spot traders, the the gold options market, futures, dealers, etc.

Secondly, you would have to violate and sustain a weekly channel that has been in tact tightly for the past Four years, (starting in 2008) Bullish channel was triggered after first attempts at 1000 then correction into the 700s next a breach and the level 1050 sustained sealed support since.
There was a similar symmetrical triangle around this area that broke bullish.
See post 1

Same deal at the 1180 level ie 1200 test correct- break north seal old resistance, move on to the next,

Same deal at 1300 test, rejected, correction, rise, and breach, 1300 sealed
Price not seen for over a year.

So on and so forth to 1920 spot appx all time high.

Not saying that it is an impossibility, anything is possible
technically I see no reason for such a move, nor do I see any fundamental backing or difference in the ideology of those driving the Gold bull.

I suppose in an extreme news day swing of 100 or so if the price was testing the bottom of the weekly channel could open the door to a test of this as a reaction low. Yet, in that instance we would need to see some immediate failure and a bearish push down. Once you reach the lower channel there is
extreme SMA support as well as UTL support and likely stacked orders in varied markets.

So.. That's part of my reasoning.

What is your reasoning for a test of this level?
Welcome to the thread. Always good to hear other ideas.
That's how the market is made

X

edit: I see you are bullish copper. I too am for the long term.
HOARD AS MANY COPPER COINS AS YOU CAN NOW!!!


Quoting Blythe
Hi XTrade,
i practice neowave, and drop below 1500 would definitely say that a major correction of a uptrend is on the way. here's the projection for short term. looks like gold is about to get out of the range. 1737 is the level where the count becomes invalid. 1670 is the immediate target.

blythe
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,476
  • Feb 18, 2012 1:52pm Feb 18, 2012 1:52pm
Not quite sure where those two have been, perhaps a PM is in order.

Bemac should be up and running by now it is late FEB.

Where ya guys at?

Quoting forexfacts
X Trade, very useful posts man, Thanks.

BTW, where is Bemac ? and Suntrader ? Suntrader's input is also very important because we at times become too much bullish so someone needs to make a correction
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,477
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:17pm Feb 18, 2012 2:17pm
I knew when I bought those coins a week or so ago the price was going to fall, it is an old joke among many that buy and stack physical metal.
(Once you pull the trigger the price falls to a more favorable buy in)

I'm not too worried, it was sitting in about a dollar or so range, perhaps the bearish move down will open up for a push back through the resistance at 34.5

Also note that she closed 18 cents above interim support at 33.00
could be considered bullish on H4 close with a spinning top left.

Price could trade light on Monday US "President's Day Bank Holiday" or get manipulated by the London Boyz / Thieves LOL


Welcome.
X
Quoting TipsForPips
Greetings all hope you people are having a wonderful weekend I would like to say that i will be watching opening prices on Monday closely with silver i was watching the hour chart on the fifth and sixth last candles on Friday and the 33.05 persistently got hammered at least 15 times . There seems to be some heavy resistance at this level. Knowing that there is a holiday in the states on Monday am hoping it stays higher than this level upon opening hopefully no more retests and onwards and upwards this week will be trying to open some...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,478
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:23pm Feb 18, 2012 2:23pm
LP what is your stance if possible for next weeks to come
???
ThX
Quoting lilpip
the battle and bias down from 1730, up from 1700
this week watching how 1730 and 1700 responds.
the fri. drop below last weeks 1730-33 with 1722 close noted.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #16,479
  • Feb 18, 2012 3:41pm Feb 18, 2012 3:41pm
What would make you guys turn bearish on gold/silver, what indicators, fundamentals would have to change? I've become bearish lately as historically gold has never rallied when capacity utilisation rates in developed world have been where they are now. Look at OECD numbers, for example. Current free capacity in developed world should indicate there's a major deflationary spiral ahead. Unless, of course they start WW3 and military expenditures fly through the roof. Any thoughts? Thanks.
  • #16,480
  • Edited 4:35pm Feb 18, 2012 4:25pm | Edited 4:35pm
Either scenario might be seen as Gold positive.

Historically, though Gold is far more positively reactive in an Inflationary global market, the USD is losing purchasing power / not a sufficient means of return on a "safe haven" if you will investment.

Deflationary scenarios at this rate may be gold positive due to the desire of many to hold less USD. Applies to all large and small to me....

Where was your USD better placed for the past ten years?
1. Gold
2. Under a mattress (deflationary) "hoarding cash" / out of markets
3. Low risk investment - ie 1% apy

Gold has become more and more heavily traded and more of a risk asset at times in the past few years.

Fundamentally: just a few
the US and other nations would have to stop running the Fiat Paper printing presses for a start. = Inflation.
Unemployment lower
Rates Up
Decreased Global Debt Crisis

Technically: Price is your best indi
A sustained breach of the weekly channel along side with multiple rejections
of re trending higher.also AT THE SAME TIME as consistently positive news releases out of US, UK, EU ETC.

The trend is long and STRONG, so much so that even if there was a bearish retracement to say 900 USD the price would likely double or triple on speculation alone in a year or two after such a movement
Not happening in my eyes any time soon.

We shall see though. Good question. Hopefully we get some more responses.


Welcome
X

Quoting Pommegranate
What would make you guys turn bearish on gold/silver, what indicators, fundamentals would have to change? I've become bearish lately as historically gold has never rallied when capacity utilisation rates in developed world have been where they are now. Look at OECD numbers, for example. Current free capacity in developed world should indicate there's a major deflationary spiral ahead. Unless, of course they start WW3 and military expenditures fly through the roof. Any thoughts? Thanks.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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