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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Quoting forexfacts
If we keep Technicalities aside, if it remains like this i see it in the 1600s after some days and the 1600s look solid support area for gold, let see
I have that view also. Hold on for the fake outs too
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
Quote
As well as if Iran/Israel tensions increase driving up crude and the dollar, knocking the euro and gold etc down.

But why gold? Physical gold has good premiums on it in Iran at the moment, if tensions rise there will be more demand.

Iran has started to trade in gold with India and other countries, Pakistan has started to trade in Chinese currency with China, there is so much going on, in my opinion gold won't be knocked down.

But this is just a bird's eye view, you have better research and much more experience so you must have better knowledge of fundamentals.
I've found this analysis interesting:

Quoting Saettele
Gold is off to a thunderous start in 2012, advancing nearly 11% in January. January’s rally is the largest monthly advance since August. August turned out to be exhaustive, with gold plunging in September. The difference, of course, is that January’s rally follows a decline of over $300, which raises the possibility that the recent rally is the beginning of the next leg up in the decade-plus long bull market. By the same token, the 4-month decline from the high is the second largest in percentage terms since the decline into the October 2008 low. The decline into October 2008 was exhaustive on the downside but gold didn’t make much upside progress over the next year. These recent extreme rate-of-change figures are consistent with a peak in volatility for at least several months. In other words, expect gold to drift sideways between the 1900 area and the recent congestion centered around 1650. A range trading strategy is best employed with strict adherence to the mentioned levels. A drop below the December low would trigger a regime shift and more than likely a panic decline towards the 2011 low and 1300.
At least they are calling for a bottom @ 1650 and a ranging market for this months with a resistance @ 1900s.

bw, he thinks that is if price closes below 1714 there will be a H&S in daily charts, so he calls for a target @ 1650.

Let's see.
Quoting jsr
I've found this analysis interesting:



At least they are calling for a bottom @ 1650 and a ranging market for this months with a resistance @ 1900s.

bw, he thinks that is if price closes below 1714 there will be a H&S in daily charts, so he calls for a target @ 1650.

Let's see.
the statement sounds quite good. I stopped trading in these ranging markets, waiting for a clear trend now.
Sorry.... but where do you see a H&S on D1 ?
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...QE3_Clues.html


I don't see it. I don't have that eye.

This analysis belongs to Ilya Spivak.

What I do see is the bearish engulfing.
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Quoting jsr
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...QE3_Clues.html


I don't see it. I don't have that eye.

This analysis belongs to Ilya Spivak's.

What I do see is the bearish engulfing.
Ok, it might be there we will see
Quoting jsr
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...QE3_Clues.html


I don't see it. I don't have that eye.

This analysis belongs to Ilya Spivak.

What I do see is the bearish engulfing.
i mean i assume that the price will fall soon, but that does not really look like nice shoulders
I totally agree with that. I can't see the H&S. What is supposed to be the right shoulder looks like a flat thing which I don't know how to name it.

But his call that a close bellow 1714 may boost a bearish sentiment makes sense when you see that bulls are consistently pushing price above that level.

It also seems to explain HotBiscuits's perception regarding support @ 1712-13.

However I saw that bearish engulfing. That is the reason that keeps me opening short trades, as I've spotted some resistances.

Specially after 2 days with a non filled entry order @ 1736.
H&S or not on D1 but what do you think about this scenario ?

W
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Quoting Walt
H&S or not on D1 but what do you think about this scenario ?

W
I have daily resistance at 1730 and 1737, from one of then i expect it to go down
Quoting fibbonix
I have daily resistance at 1730 and 1737, from one of then i expect it to go down
Hmmm... I have DR1 @ 1727.10 and DR2 @ 1735.10

I'm curious if it's going to break 1733...

Oh well, we will see
BTW, do you think that Bernanke's speech Tomorrow will have an effect on Gold ?
Ok, that was fast... now @ 1736
Finally my short is open.

However i'm afraid that price could see 1740-1742 before going down, after breaking that triangle in green lines.
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Nice charts there Walt and JSR, great call there Fibbonix

This is how commodities follow textbooks, wow !

Lets see if it breaks 1740, if it don't then might head to your call, 1690.
Quoting jsr
Finally my short is open.

However i'm afraid that price could see 1740-1742 before going down, after breaking that triangle in green lines.
I tend to agree. Probably this occurrence cud take place due to FOMC min meetings?
Quoting Walt
Hmmm... I have DR1 @ 1727.10 and DR2 @ 1735.10
More shorter term...On H1, I see 1724 flipped from resistance to support.
Quoting forexfacts
But why gold? Physical gold has good premiums on it in Iran at the moment, if tensions rise there will be more demand.

Iran has started to trade in gold with India and other countries, Pakistan has started to trade in Chinese currency with China, there is so much going on, in my opinion gold won't be knocked down.

But this is just a bird's eye view, you have better research and much more experience so you must have better knowledge of fundamentals.
If Iran and Israel go to war funds will flow to the dollar. The price of oil will skyrocket and cripple most of the world economy which means, for the short term at least, risk off and low or negative inflation, i.e. deflation. Not good. Then most likely Gold down.
Quoting SunTrader
If Iran and Israel go to war funds will flow to the dollar. The price of oil will skyrocket and cripple most of the world economy which means, for the short term at least, risk off and low or negative inflation, i.e. deflation. Not good. Then most likely Gold down.

Thanks for explanation SunTrader, but don't you think wars raise the price of gold too?
but if there is a war at the first place because they don't go invading countries that have nuclear power so...
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