XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

gold and silver

lilpip, i don't trade silver. But at first sight i would say the same thing.
Although silver didn't create a lower low and seems to have a strong support @ 26.

So far it seems to me to be in a sideways market or on its way to print a falling wedge.

In fact, that is what I think gold is going to create.

I believe gold will create a new lower low before creating a new higher high.

1477-1500 perhaps.

XTrade, I know I use lines that don't look ok.

I shouldn't be using candles that are potential highs before it is confirmed.

But I like to create alternative scenarios, trying to find different outcomes, and be prepared for them.

Also I think that a break of a trendline does not mean a reversal per se. It could mean just a correction. Right?

For example, when gold created new lows it broke some trendlines, but there are older trendlines still intact. So we can't say "downtrend, downtrend" even if we have a bias. The opposite is also true.

For example, a few days ago I posted about price creating a triangle. In fact, one inside the other, with pivots @ 1734.50 and 1739.50.

When price broke up both triangles and headed to 1752,36. We could just say "price will go up and that's all".

I was expecting it to go back, can't give you a logical reason. In my mind it was a fakeout. I think it is because I've seen price doing a fake move so many times this year that I am allways expecting a test or a failure each single time.

Later the inner triangle was broken downwards, price tested it, hold the break o and broke the H4 channel.

On the other hand, I think there are spikes that are noise, even in daily charts. Sorry, I know that I'm not a experienced trader, but as forex has such a high rate of failure among new and old traders, I am keen to find my own way to figure out what markets are telling us. And it could mean being technically wrong. So i've decided to ask me what if...

It can be dangerous, but it can be also a good school for me.

So, I appreciate when you remark that I am doing something wrong. It makes me think.

Thanks.

Since I have a bearish bias, i've been wondering how can we sense the market to see if 1762,97 is a swing high point and we are now heading south, or if we are just witnesses of a complex pullback. After all, having a plan implies observe market behaviour to see if my premises are beeing acomplished or negated by facts.

So, I want to ask:
- How do you recognize a swing high/low?
- Do you have a method to measure it?
- Where are the price levels that validates or invalidates a premise?

Thanks in advance.

anyone who has a complete teaching material about BEMAC's ICCE trading.
I tried to learn that from this forum. But I found it very difficult as I am a Chinese guy who are not very good at English especially BEMAC's slang or some very weird language to me.

ichi:
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/blog/201...-e-finita.html

I dont know if its just me, but can anyone see the jump on spot gold ??
Seems like a lot of pending buy orders just got executed.
I'll keep an eye on this one.

Same here Roncho (fridays close was 1716 and todays open was 1724

Well as least we know the average open bias for traders. We'll see it this changes thru the course of the day/week.

Hi there

Here is a link to Bemac's ICCE thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post5376395

but unfortunately I don't think there are definitive rules that have been published. However if you download the indicator and play with it there are many people who watch that thread and are willing to help.

I can highly recommend it, it has helped my gold trading immensely. As Bemac predicted using a chart like this a few days ago, gold did in fact bounce of 1706 and head higher. Freaky stuff!

Good luck

cheers
cath

GREECE passed the austerity bill... 199yes to 75no.

be interesting to see the effects on gold.

Thanks

Little scalping using pivot indi.

Sell @ 1.727,85 12/02/2012 18:09

TP 1.720,9069512/02/2012 19:43

Price is going up again. And I'll be back tomorrow.

1734-1739 still a pivot zone in my mind.

I'm expecting resistance @1736.

SMA(200) H1 or SMA(50) 4H (similar)
Test of broken H4 channel
R1 daily classic Pivot
M3 weekly classic Pivot

A chart with the info.

"Forgot" to mention possible descending channel. lol.

I guess I got hung up on the words gold is in a bear market and not your intent.
Although Im not convinced it is a bear market till were on the south side of 1600 I myself thru some shorts on in that area 1754-62 and 34.50 area and as posted earlier that I would hold till proven wrong.

swing h/l is simple as your abc.
look at your 5 min. whats h/l ? your 3 5 min whats h/l? whats h/l on your next 3or 4 15 15min? 4hr. etc., name your timeframe.
whats 15 min trend ? 1hr?, 4hr? daily?,weekly? monthly ?,quarterly?yearly?
Just as you look at the 5 min. in a group of 3 for direction do the same also with higher timeframes.
same above as below applys to the timeframes, pretty soon you will not have to look at your gauges to travel.(although they are fascinating to look at as they kinda remind me of a vehicle all pimped out going to a car show or some kinda parade)

method to measure is old floor traders pivot.
h/l/c
most use last single timeframe
I also use last 3 timeframes h/l/c, i also use the last 5 timeframes on the daily

to validate yearly trend is validated by quarterly, quarterly validated bt monthly, monthly validated by weekly, weekly by daily, daily by 4 hr. 4hr by 1hrly hrly by 30, 30 by 15 and 15 min. by 5min. and vice versa.

the higher timeframe is the stronger the trend so keep that in mind when around higher timeframe levels.

mon. daily
1748
1725
1702
with eye on 1730 response also
silver daily
oops, corrected
34.42
33.64
32.86

If we skip Technicality, then i am in the mood of 1760 - 1770 today.

But remember it almost always follow Technicalities except when they draw straight lines

look up SPEED LINES you might like them.

A break of a pattern trend line can signal reversal or continuation.

The $80 usd weekly candle after the symmetrical triangle would signal a reversal in short term price and a continuation of the prevailing trend.

Hi everyone, have just taken a short position from 1,729.50 SL 1,736.50 TP 1,716.00 which is 0.618 fib. See chart H1

Just bought a bunch of both - let's break this silver range to the topside so i can make the spread!!!

on the second coin the Mexican Libertad if you catch a low mintage year the retail value can go into the 100s+
http://www.apmex.com/Resources/Catal.../65202_Obv.jpghttp://www.apmex.com/Resources/Catal.../59040_Obv.jpg