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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,621
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:27pm Jan 22, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting fuse
Hi everyone, will price continue or reverse?
throw the 5min on and follow, she will tell you.
watchin this 32.54 areas response at the moment.
  • #15,622
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:58pm Jan 22, 2012 11:58pm
If price closes below 1,670.00 i will look to short. If price bounces off 1,670.00 will look to go long..
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  • #15,623
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:59pm Jan 22, 2012 11:59pm
I would suggest holding off on entries just yet as this area has all sorts of things going on, and price could go either way in the short term IMO.

Unless of couse you are holding longs from way back (X!!), in which case I would surely hold on and be thankful
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  • #15,624
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:31am Jan 23, 2012 12:31am
Well it's updated again, there's no denying that this weekly bar is outside the TL.

everyone's chart's and quotes might be slightly different so... I'll use another reference in addition

SECOND TWO not from a broker, quickly drawn.

It's important to remember to look at line charts, the candle high is sometimes just a reaction daily push and not true resistance.

The wicks could be 5 bucks but if the body doesn't break in one way or another a certain price, it's important again to work lines off of that area, or the "close"
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,625
  • Jan 23, 2012 1:22am Jan 23, 2012 1:22am
thanks for the charts, im looking/waiting for a long entry now
  • #15,626
  • Jan 23, 2012 1:22am Jan 23, 2012 1:22am
Hi everyone, just taken a short position based on m15 candle closing lower than 1,670.00. Open 1,669.10 SL 1,675.00 TP 1,660.00
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  • #15,627
  • Jan 23, 2012 5:06am Jan 23, 2012 5:06am
I was stopped out @ 1670,5.

Back to my question, where is gold in terms of Elliot Waves.

Is it begining wave 1 from low @ 1520's after corrective wave c ?

Is it ending wave 4?

Where are we?

I see a zone of resistance ahead. 1678 - 1681.
  • #15,628
  • Jan 23, 2012 5:16am Jan 23, 2012 5:16am
Quoting jsr
I was stopped out @ 1670,5.

Back to my question, where is gold in terms of Elliot Waves.

Is it begining wave 1 from low @ 1520's after corrective wave c ?

Is it ending wave 4?

Where are we?

I see a zone of resistance ahead. 1678 - 1681.
copying from my post in another thread:

i think wave 5 of wave A was over at 1522, assuming 1920 was end of wave 3. right now we're in wave B which could go as high as 1760 area. then wave c will break to new lows...maybe mid 1300's?

then we'll have the last wave 5 which will take out the high of 1920, but dont have a projection for it.

note: i'm not an elliott wave junkie. i did this analysis in 10mins looking at monthly chart, just to get a feel for where we are right now in the cycle.
  • #15,629
  • Jan 23, 2012 5:18am Jan 23, 2012 5:18am
That is a fact XTrade, Trend Line is clearly broken in weekly and daily charts.

However, a bearish move will make it a wick.

If resistance @ 1680 is strong enough price has to retreat.

But, yeah, you are right, I'm having second thoughts.

I'll wait to see what happens.
  • #15,630
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:03am Jan 23, 2012 8:03am
You have a point, yet I am loooking more towards 1700 as firmer resistance.

now, a further move up and a test of the line broken could suggest a confirmed upmove. Although they are not necessary for my trading at this point.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So can gold make the 1665/8 area support and break the new high 10 bucks above?
that;s what needs to be seen.

I am posting some of my other setups in a new journal if any of you are ever interested.
It is about 50 pips a day
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,631
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:05am Jan 23, 2012 8:05am
Gotta run out. good luck all.
Talk to ya later.

x
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,632
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:07am Jan 23, 2012 8:07am
congrats on x's new thread -am reading it right now



nice pips there mate.

i wish i can be as consistent as that.
whcih is difficult.

im working on consistency after wins - because usually i win big - then give back 50%+ back to the damn market. like imagine a 100 pip win then u lose 80.
i do and have the ability to get 100+ pips wins. no doubt - but the risk envelope and risk im willing to take is larger and is bad when i do that after i win such wins.

in the end i only get like what 30 - 20 pippers net? i hate that.
im still working out consistency ratios and some other things i can do for consistency.

i tend to up the risk after large wins - which i must stop doing actually. it should stay the same . the whole mm framework would change if i did that.

well february - bday and will be the time for a makeover in all that.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,633
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:08am Jan 23, 2012 8:08am
Keep in mind the wick candles were all formed inside the line. this candle has formed outside.

Quoting jsr
That is a fact XTrade, Trend Line is clearly broken in weekly and daily charts.

However, a bearish move will make it a wick.

If resistance @ 1680 is strong enough price has to retreat.

But, yeah, you are right, I'm having second thoughts.

I'll wait to see what happens.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,634
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:11am Jan 23, 2012 8:11am
Thanks, sounds like you are simply overtrading.

If you aren't going to hold positions for weeks, after the target you have made is hit. walk away for a bit, physically shut down, the market will be there, the need is to keep your account alive.

That's why I set the goal at 50. it is pretty low for a day but a nice take to maintain if done consistently.

Quoting bumapatria
congrats on x's new thread -am reading it right now



nice pips there mate.

i wish i can be as consistent as that.
whcih is difficult.

im working on consistency after wins - because usually i win big - then give back 50%+ back to the damn market. like imagine a 100 pip win then u lose 80.
i do and have the ability to get 100+ pips wins. no doubt - but the risk envelope and risk im willing to take is larger and is bad when i do that after i win such wins.

in the end i only get like what 30 - 20 pippers net? i hate that.
im still...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,635
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:12am Jan 23, 2012 8:12am
well to me the trendline is still valid.

i also got some reasoning for drops in gold.... its a technical trade - and i got... 4+ confluences of reasoning.

Mars retrograde in 11 hours - event only happens in 2+ years.

to me its still valid.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,636
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:15am Jan 23, 2012 8:15am
Quoting XTrade
Thanks, sounds like you are simply overtrading.

If you aren't going to hold positions for weeks, after the target you have made is hit. walk away for a bit, physically shut down, the market will be there, the need is to keep your account alive.

That's why I set the goal at 50. it is pretty low for a day but a nice take to maintain if done consistently.
yeah overtrading... it really is an addiction this market.. u make 5% (a lot for me) on one trade or more and u do some stupid shit blah...

i have the edge to make profit - iam capable too - but i lose 50% of it back due to overtrading i have to admit it, i think thats the reason.

i used to make 1% a day and that worked well.
looks like i need my old self back....

i think if i can overcome overtrading i can be much more profitable and more successful (well duh buma no shit)..

(btw the short on gold is not an overtrade thing)
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,637
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:25am Jan 23, 2012 8:25am
i got everything marking for a crash - and i chose gold out of S&P (not tradeable on this broker) and Dow (tradeable). . .

the profit potential i believe would be greater... (risk too...).

but for those interested why i'm so interested in a crash - take a look. Dow cycles perfect to the bar at most. and a lunar harmonic one for that. and s&p cycles on weekly
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ive got some fractal and fib bar counts as well on dow to that next timeline in 3 days for a drop in price - (price is rising to time).

but who the heck knows.
its just less riskier for a short.
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too many things calling for a rise in USD.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,638
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:28am Jan 23, 2012 8:28am
usdx also at old resistance level and price falling on cycle.

we may see a rise in USD.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,639
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:08am Jan 23, 2012 9:08am
Quoting XTrade
Keep in mind the wick candles were all formed inside the line. this candle has formed outside.
That is true.

After posting, I realized that it wasn't an accurate remark.

In fact, in a previous post i recognized that this week candle's open is above the trendline.

Mi view is that today's candle has a chance to close below the open, and if it does that, and closes below 1665, it will be a temporary breakout failure in daily charts.

In a Weekly chart price must close below 1655 to stay below the trend line.

I'm lookin at H4 chart (60 days data range) and price rise is weakening. It looks like it is at it's high and a bearish correction is about to begin.

Also, when comparing to previous supply points, there is a MACD bearish divergence. (Dec9, 5am and Dec8 5am highs)

I'm not sure about today's outcome. So far it makes sense that price is moving between 1678-81 resistance and fridays consolidation price at 1666 which became a clear demand zone, at least for today. However I think that a fourth test @ 1666 will result in a break.

As I said before, I still see bearish signals and i am not sure of today's outcome.

Price must go beyond 1685 to make me think bulls are clear winners.

For now all i see is a fight between bears sellling at supply td line and bulls buying a breakout.
  • #15,640
  • Jan 23, 2012 11:21am Jan 23, 2012 11:21am
long?
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/blog/201...nale-long.html
http://gyazo.com/fe97ceea5a15a4835adbb9a4026c8a4e.png
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