XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread | Page 779 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

Gold/USD, Silver/USD

Similar Threads

Gold futures & XAU 78 replies

GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD) 51 replies

Daytrade - XAU/USD & XAG/USD 14 replies

XAU/JPY & XAG/JPY 13 replies

Successful XAU/USD traders 7 replies

Attachments: XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
Exit Attachments

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,561
  • Edited 2:20am Jan 21, 2012 2:08am | Edited 2:20am
Went long @ 1658 for reasons on the chart attached. Now at BE. Closely watching 1681. Won't add before breach and confirmation at that level.
Long A/U as well from 1.0430
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot Gold (DFB).png Size: 16 KB
Patience is magic
  • #15,562
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:41am Jan 21, 2012 6:41am
Quoting bumapatria
depends what you think is the trend
the trends been up.
up from 2011 yearly breakout 1551
up from 2012 1 year trend guide 1598
up from jan monthly trend guide 1629
up from 1st quarter trend guide 1632
up from last weeks trend guide 1611
up from this weeks trend guide 1633
up from this monday daily guide 1655
  • #15,563
  • Jan 21, 2012 8:38am Jan 21, 2012 8:38am
I think LilPip Has done a good job of explaining that.

Regardless, if you are day trading and trying to maximize profits, the trade for friday was clearly long and trending up. not much more sense in discussing this.


Quoting bumapatria
depends what you think is the trend
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,564
  • Jan 21, 2012 8:44am Jan 21, 2012 8:44am
It's white here in NY

First real snowfall of the season.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,565
  • Jan 21, 2012 8:45am Jan 21, 2012 8:45am
Quoting XTrade
I think LilPip Has done a good job of explaining that.

Regardless, if you are day trading and trying to maximize profits, the trade for friday was clearly long and trending up. not much more sense in discussing this.
yeah i got a long signal ill repost it here - but i refuse to take it.
i couldve easily went long at demand and at the division of time - but im still a hell of a bear till end of january.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: division of time.gif Size: 31 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,566
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:53am Jan 21, 2012 10:53am
when gold crashed from 1920 - how did it feel like really to go long for a very long time then know that the gold market is crashing?

was it 'normal' feeling?

how did you feel?

any trades occured in the period? successes and failures?


id like to know for experience sharing purposes thanks
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,567
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:43am Jan 21, 2012 11:43am
that gold has been in a 10 year bull... yes
That gold has been undergoing a major correction... yes
that gold did not close below the weekly rising trend line (although it broke the others)... yes
that a major decending trendline on the daily is still in place ... yes
That gold has made about a dozen attempts to break the new daily trendline and failed... yes
That gold has displayed most of the classic techincal reverals signs ... yes

Not sure how anyone that has spent too much time in front of the gold chart can argue with certainty that gold is clearly trending up or down.

It seems to me that taking a position at this point is merely gambling.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,568
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:47am Jan 21, 2012 11:47am
Sure, since I trade in the direction of the prevailing trend 90% of the time, 100% with gold, I was already long until we hit 1900.

I trade off my channel, and at this point we had Blown way out of the channel and were rocketing up every day.

This alone was a signal to be careful and aware that a correction will be imminent.

We had one attempt at a spot close above 1908. It failed. The price fell.

Then we had another attempt from 1700 the channel top expansion line, we did not re enter the channel thus, I added.

Next we attempted from this dip to maintain a price point above 1908 and failed again.

This created an ever present double top on the daily chart and was certainly a signal to exit longs that were only a few hundred dollars in moves. If I was long since 1000 or 1100 I probably would have just rode out the storm and still be on top of a 650 USD move. I was not thus I became flat.

Being that I have far more experience with Gold and Silver than I do currencies, I know that when the price starts correcting just as drastically as it did rise it can be like trying to catch a double edged sword. I've learned this lesson the hard way one too many times to
do it again. So when things are not moving in my direction I either exit and remain flat or get stopped out and remain flat until the market
comes to my desired price (hits an order) or I get a signal. Then I re-enter.

Thus, I stayed flat for a while with a few minor failed longs in between. Exactly where and when I don't know but there in here that;s for sure. Also some other successes.

After the huge dip we hit channel bottom and rose 200 bucks. Not coming close to the highs of 1900s.

Next We hit channel dip line bottom recently and the bearish move has now as well failed twice at breaking the channel and sustaining it.

So that brings us to current. Second bear failure, supports respected,
Signal to enter long taken and positions open from appx 1530 and 1580.

We have now been rising in price since the 29th of December 2011.

Also a signal to watch positions and corrective action was the fact of the "big boys" booking profit for YEAR and Quarter end.

Gold has been one of the best Long trades of 2011 for many an account.

Hope this answers your questions and helps shed some insight.

Upcoming, silver chart....
Quoting bumapatria
when gold crashed from 1920 - how did it feel like really to go long for a very long time then know that the gold market is crashing?

was it 'normal' feeling?

how did you feel?

any trades occured in the period? successes and failures?


id like to know for experience sharing purposes thanks
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,569
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:50am Jan 21, 2012 11:50am
Downward Daily TL broken.

Great move on Friday, let's see where she takes us next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver nice close.GIF Size: 33 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,570
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:54am Jan 21, 2012 11:54am
Quoting XTrade
Downward Daily TL broken.

Great move on Friday, let's see where she takes us next.
nyeh not at all its barely touchin it on gold though... silveer made a "duh i broke that lame line".. .gold hesitating 5+ day on weekly r1 and the trendline

closing prices on line chart
and bar chart zoomed out view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nah man.gif Size: 17 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nah man 2.gif Size: 18 KB


pappa bear wants a massive bull rally - but sonny boy wants a crash...


oi... what to do..
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,571
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:56am Jan 21, 2012 11:56am
Quoting XTrade
Sure, since I trade in the direction of the prevailing trend 90% of the time, 100% with gold, I was already long until we hit 1900.

I trade off my channel, and at this point we had Blown way out of the channel and were rocketing up every day.

This alone was a signal to be careful and aware that a correction will be imminent.

We had one attempt at a spot close above 1908. It failed. The price fell.

Then we had another attempt from 1700 the channel top expansion line, we did not re enter the channel thus, I added.

Next we attempted from this...
hey man thanks so much for ur detailed views - i appreciate them papa bear... ill keep that on watch fosho
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,572
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:58am Jan 21, 2012 11:58am
Taking a position at this moment would likely not be the best entry point agreed.

Falling back into a rising channel started in June of 2008 after blowing out of it by several hundred dollars north is not a reversal to me it is a correction and part of the ebb and flow.

This entire month the price has risen. So there were positions to be taken.
Quoting AaronWard
that gold has been in a 10 year bull... yes
That gold has been undergoing a major correction... yes
that gold did not close below the weekly rising trend line (although it broke the others)... yes
that a major decending trendline on the daily is still in place ... yes
That gold has made about a dozen attempts to break the new daily trendline and failed... yes
That gold has displayed most of the classic techincal reverals signs ... yes

Not sure how anyone that has spent too much time in front of the gold chart can argue with certainty that...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,573
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:59am Jan 21, 2012 11:59am
since dow sorta jumped up with silver rally - we can maybe theorize that they maybe correlated for a while...

heres my view on gold. heavy resistance - i expect profit taking - heavy profit taking by buyers and entry of sellers and a crash of 500 points at least to 23.6
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lunar dj.gif Size: 22 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,574
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:05pm Jan 21, 2012 12:05pm
eh oh....

is this chart right? weekend movements at 1660?

nice.

yahoo finance better got this data right lol
or just an anomaly in price feeds..

do people really profit take before weeknds this heaviliy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: what is this.JPG Size: 47 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,575
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:06pm Jan 21, 2012 12:06pm
Sometimes it's the small ones that are most important.

Here is your Downward TL redrawn on the daily from my weekly channel.

I see a close outside the line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold weekly view of daily tl.GIF Size: 33 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,576
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:39pm Jan 21, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting XTrade
Taking a position at this moment would likely not be the best entry point agreed.

Falling back into a rising channel started in June of 2008 after blowing out of it by several hundred dollars north is not a reversal to me it is a correction and part of the ebb and flow.

This entire month the price has risen. So there were positions to be taken.
Standard reversal signals include:

1. double top
2. extreme volatility
3. trend channel overshoot
4. new, strong decending trend line

However, the most important condition, failing to break the rising trendline did not happen. So major bull trend is still in place.

For the last seven months we have have been in a range. All positions taken since June with a TP of 1.670 (long below and short above) would now be profitable.

What happens next... I really don't know, but I do know that a number of the medium term fundamentals are working against gold. They are:

1. USD is relatively bullish
2. the European debt crisis has the potential to trigger a world wide recession which will hurt gold
3. QE seems unlikely in the near future
4. Global inflation seems to be cooling
5. Economies in the developing nations are slowing down
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,577
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:42pm Jan 21, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting Nomi1
i do not know how to put charts but on a daily chart i am looking at the support at around 1488. am i missing some thing here. ofcorse this is based on trend lines and not on any complex tools.
My charts have nothing on them either and I do see 1488 area as support also, especially when considering the last 90 days direction.
However, currently 1629 is supporting in the here and now.
jan monthly
1769
1629
1489
  • #15,578
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:45pm Jan 21, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting AaronWard
3. QE seems unlikely in the near future
QE3 is inevitable to many. A question of when...

I wouldn't be so sure it is unlikely in the near future, unless you are talking about a very short window of time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tom-keene.html
  • #15,579
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:45pm Jan 21, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting XTrade
Sometimes it's the small ones that are most important.

Here is your Downward TL redrawn on the daily from my weekly channel.

I see a close outside the line.
Lol, battle of the trend lines. Do the same on the monthly chart and once again it closes beneath the trend line.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,580
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:55pm Jan 21, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting Wheels
QE3 is inevitable to many. A question of when...

I wouldn't be so sure it is unlikely in the near future, unless you are talking about a very short window of time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tom-keene.html
Just based upon that article you need to downgrade inevitable to probable or possible.

I would also say that the fed has an ongoing policy of stealth QE... sort of an ongoing guerrilla warfare against USD strength. However, things are going to have to get really bad before they have justification for an official round three.

IMO key triggers for QE3 would be a massive fall of the equity markets, a massive rise of the USD and a massive rise in unemployment. Currently we have rising equity markets, falling unemployment and a mildly bullish USD.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
102 traders viewing now