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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,421
  • Edited 7:56am Jan 17, 2012 7:37am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting bumapatria
more commodity pair up for study: USDCAD

i honestly am dying for this to resolve. pennatn on daily if anyones watching


if u do elliot waves of 1 -5 basics and that pennatns form on 4th more likely than less it would continue up, if it does - i dont see gold going higher with CAD going lower.. even though CAd is more on crude.
Attachment
usdcad will make history tommorow


if it does break lower.. gold will rise fosho.. ithink.
You are a wise and clever trader. I am seeing similar things to you.

Sometimes, it is good to be a bit of a contrarian when the whole world expects something different. I pay very little attention to the media/noise, something I learned many years ago.
  • #15,422
  • Edited 7:57am Jan 17, 2012 7:44am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting XTrade
There are two types of fear. selloff fear and protect assets/ wealth preservation fear.

I personally do not see a selloff fear in for today or this week.

The latter of the two fears is very gold positive.

I wouldn't hold my breath for 1300. Never know but best of luck to you.

One question, are you Hedging by shorting Eur and Swissy? the two trades negate eachother and = a hedge.
Both are against USD (i.e. long USD). I am already in profit (with very limited risk I might add) since I last posted (in real time) these trades. Bankers were pushing for stops which was quite obvious at the time.

The markets are being tricky which is why I first mentioned "be careful" in a general sense - not aimed at anyone in particular.

Best
KR
  • #15,423
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:58am Jan 17, 2012 7:58am
Quoting XTrade
There are two types of fear. selloff fear and protect assets/ wealth preservation fear.

I personally do not see a selloff fear in for today or this week.

hey x just my opinion from an order flow thoguht process mindset:

we are reaching the bear trendline. and uncertainty kicks in - people are seeing believe it or not what me and you are seeing. big money do the astro- mumbo jumbo - and would hunt stops going short or those going long. more likely than less we can expect uncertainty at this level and point in time. with maybe fear that their profits going to be lost - profit taking can happen and chain react to a panic sell from whatever may happen next. all it takes "bad news" to attract sellling.

i believe this is the way it works i drew a graphic to better explain it
point of uncertainty like now -


its all fictional events and names. whether its a fib ratio or a bollinger band top or 200 ema or pivot or trendline whatever it is always point of uncertainty - and it takes a twitch of good/bad news to move it.



what is certainty though?

traders going long more than short and vice versa on "good news" bad News or a tech level or an astro aspect or a dog poop forecast .. . etc etc

if any funy duder ishere please help us with "certainty"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: point of uncertainty.png Size: 31 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,424
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:12am Jan 17, 2012 8:12am
Well, I'm done for the day.

Zero risk now on trades and continue to build existing position in long term trend. Boring, yes, but consistant.

Usually, there are times of the year which provide great set ups which you can hold for long periods of time.

A few traders here have alluded to some.

Have a great rest of your trading day. I've finished for the day.

Best,

KR
  • #15,425
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:27am Jan 17, 2012 8:27am
This is confusing, you are saying both are against the USD - ie long would mean "for the usd".

Now Fear or SELLOFF fear is when everyone drops risk and puts their money into the World Reserve Currency, which still happens to be the USD.

Risk comes off, the Euro , AUD etc all drop and even Gold can be considered risk.

This kind of fear could be experienced during say a terrorist attack or a market corruption scandal. etc.
Quoting Knight Rider
Both are against USD (i.e. long USD). I am already in profit (with very limited risk I might add) since I last posted (in real time) these trades. Bankers were pushing for stops which was quite obvious at the time.

The markets are being tricky which is why I first mentioned "be careful" in a general sense - not aimed at anyone in particular.

Best
KR
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,426
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:30am Jan 17, 2012 8:30am
And what might be this position you are building.?

By the way if you are calling this thread the noise or whatever you said, that would be an unfair statement to all the people posting here.

Not sure quite what to make of your statements. I sense a bit of an attitude although, we are posting online and words can be misconstrued.

So....

Quoting Knight Rider
Well, I'm done for the day.

Zero risk now on trades and continue to build existing position in long term trend. Boring, yes, but consistant.

Usually, there are times of the year which provide great set ups which you can hold for long periods of time.

A few traders here have alluded to some.

Have a great rest of your trading day. I've finished for the day.

Best,

KR
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,427
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:32am Jan 17, 2012 8:32am
By the way, you have eluded to answer any and all of my questions this morning with answers that are unrelated.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,428
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:38am Jan 17, 2012 8:38am
Anyway, back to business,

Gold touched down, as expected a bit of correction this morning, on
1656 minor support.

Now let's see if she rises above
1664 resistance area.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,429
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:40am Jan 17, 2012 8:40am
Please show a chart - I am not sure what you are referring to.

Quoting bumapatria
hey x just my opinion from an order flow thoguht process mindset:

we are reaching the bear trendline.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,430
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:45am Jan 17, 2012 8:45am
this one is the TL, X

Red one





target is bottom of this current flag... 100 USD i presume..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: red tl.gif Size: 22 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,431
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:16am Jan 17, 2012 9:16am
Gotcha, be careful with your short, we are on the verge of breaking that TL, it is a bit too steep to last much longer.

Also, now that the triangle has formed the tension will grow and the price has a tendency to explode out or at least break out.

From my experience with Symmetrical triangles on the Gold chart more often than not they break bullish.

Quoting bumapatria
this one is the TL, X

Red one





target is bottom of this current flag... 100 USD i presume..
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,432
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:21am Jan 17, 2012 9:21am
I am beginning to dislike the US session more and more.

I used to trade london only and now have started to trade the cross.

Yet I prefer Aussie/ Asia for entries, then placing if necessary stops and take profits for London, sleeping part of the time.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,433
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:27am Jan 17, 2012 9:27am
same - asia is stable for entry. Europe and US is more of to let the trade develop.



daily atr is $25. with current price to my target thats a $116.57 drop in value.

$116.57/$25 atr value is .. 4 days? is it going to be that fast?

well lets see it progress more south before any conclusions.

we are btw at the apogee hour. hourly close entry for short is recomendation from my end
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,434
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:59am Jan 17, 2012 9:59am
Hi there!

I'm a newbie.

Still demo trading.

Have you noticed in H8 charts there is price rejection, piercing upper Bollinger Band and Weekly R1?

Also there is bearish divergence on MACD

I know very little about this, but although price is findind support at 1656, i thing price may drop to 1640, at least, before reaching 1670.

Anyway, i'm here to learn...

So, i'm just guessing.
  • #15,435
  • Jan 17, 2012 10:13am Jan 17, 2012 10:13am
Welcome,

Don't guess. Sounds like you've done some homework and have a bit of conviction. Be sure of yourself, you ultimately will be the success or failure of your account.

If I can make a suggestion,
Get off the demo A S A P.

Take 100 bucks and open up a micro account so you can learn to trade real money even if it is only for dollars. You can make 30 bucks on a good day on a micro.

If you would like to discuss it more in private feel free to PM me.

Quoting jsr
Hi there!

I'm a newbie.

Still demo trading.

Have you noticed in H8 charts there is price rejection, piercing upper Bollinger Band and Weekly R1?

Also there is bearish divergence on MACD

I know very little about this, but although price is findind support at 1656, i thing price may drop to 1640, at least, before reaching 1670.

Anyway, i'm here to learn...

So, i'm just guessing.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,436
  • Jan 17, 2012 10:38am Jan 17, 2012 10:38am
Quoting XTrade
There are two types of fear. selloff fear and protect assets/ wealth preservation fear.

I personally do not see a selloff fear in for today or this week.

The latter of the two fears is very gold positive.

I wouldn't hold my breath for 1300. Never know but best of luck to you.

One question, are you Hedging by shorting Eur and Swissy? the two trades negate eachother and = a hedge.
....just strolled past.

1) I really don't understand your question. I told you what I did above (in real time) and I answered your question later when I responded. No the two do not negate each other as I went short both CHF and EUR which means on both pairs I was long USD, so no hedge. I have long term positions in euro (short) and the start of the year is often a good time to build positions. I still think USD has legs and I am expecting another correction in gold and commodities. If it doesn't happen. Fine. No big deal.

2) Hey be cool X trader. No-one is dissing you here.

KR
  • #15,437
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:56am Jan 17, 2012 11:56am
since its time for my close (12 am)

and going into positive territory , i am holding this short.

this one is a 4h view just to say
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Hold.png Size: 179 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,438
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:40pm Jan 17, 2012 12:40pm
Thanks for your advice, XTrade.

I'm still having mixed outcomes. Lack of consistency, i must say. So, i'm trying to improve.

I need a better understanding of gold and trading. "Sense of timing" would be great.
  • #15,439
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:47pm Jan 17, 2012 2:47pm
What do you think of this trade idea? There is a bearish divergence and also a falling trendline at 4h chart that has been broken recently. So I'm going long after the pullback and if the trendline breaks and my short stop loss get's triggered I will go short. A break might also confirm a possible double top which 2nd top is slightly shifted higher.

http://s7.directupload.net/images/120117/thuc72a5.gif
  • #15,440
  • Edited 3:52pm Jan 17, 2012 3:23pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting XTrade
By the way, you have eluded to answer any and all of my questions this morning with answers that are unrelated.
"que"?

Listen Mr Fawlty, i think gold keep rising higher, but not in short term. In short term i think dollar keep rising higher...comprehende?

Ouch...., Mr Fawlty, why you hit me!
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