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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,301
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:59am Jan 12, 2012 9:59am
There is but one bottom or top.


Quoting Sreym33
I would like to share some of my learnings with the forum. I see a lot of people here trying to grab the tops and the bottoms, and I used to as well and got burned more times than I care to admit. Once in a while I caught one and it was great and that is what keeps pulling you in, but then you set your stops tight trying to catch the end of the trend and get stopped time and time again. One great analogy that I have adopted is one of the fish. You don't eat the tail or the head of a fish, the meat is in the body. Trading is the same. While...
Patience is magic
  • #15,302
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:29am Jan 12, 2012 11:29am
Quoting Bemac
Not exacly but may sufficce:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ighlight=bemac

B
Bemac, this looks like just what I am needing... One thing that would be amazing is if the EA could analyze the chart and place the stop just below the last swing with an input (50, 200 etc) instead of using the user defined stop. Any coders out there that know how to do this?
  • #15,303
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:36am Jan 12, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Sreym33
Bemac, this looks like just what I am needing... One thing that would be amazing is if the EA could analyze the chart and place the stop just below the last swing with an input (50, 200 etc) instead of using the user defined stop. Any coders out there that know how to do this?
I think a coder would have an easy time if you laid out the math in simple terms.

What exactly would be your equation? When the 200 and 50 cross over? Then placing the stop above or below and making a counter trend trade? Excuse me if I am way off. Just trying to understand.

If using SMAs, the math should be simple, but defining a swing in real time seems to be the challenge because the market is random. Not sure how easy this would be.
  • #15,304
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:43am Jan 12, 2012 11:43am
Quoting Wheels
What exactly would be your equation? When the 200 and 50 cross over? Then placing the stop above or below and making a counter trend trade? Excuse me if I am way off. Just trying to understand.

If using SMAs, the math should be simple, but defining a swing in real time seems to be the challenge because the market is random. Not sure how easy this would be.
I am not sure of the math, not a coder at all.
The trade is taken manually and this EA automatically puts in the SL, TP and sets up a % based TrStop.
Logically, I thought the swing trade would be determined by looking at the last ex: 5 candles and finding the lowest point and then adding/subtracting the user defined variable to that value for the stop.
  • #15,305
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:44am Jan 12, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Sreym33
Bemac, this looks like just what I am needing... One thing that would be amazing is if the EA could analyze the chart and place the stop just below the last swing with an input (50, 200 etc) instead of using the user defined stop. Any coders out there that know how to do this?
The only thing you need is a bit of advice from the dibs thread. I was kind enough to post there recently. Hope I've annoyed anyone, but think this thread a worthy one.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post5290066

KR
  • #15,306
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:49am Jan 12, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Sreym33
I am interested to know what are your thoughts now. Does your analysis of the current charts concur with your previous price? Are you flipping to a "long" point of view?
Most definitely.

Measuring the two previous upswings and the most current one since the intermediate high (Wave B) was made on Nov 8th +5.78% over 9 days, +5.17% over 4 days and up to this point +9.15% over 10 days (and counting).

This is what is called an overbalance of time and price or another words change of trend.

So I will buy any pullbacks until charts say differently.

If some remember in late Nov (date?) I was looking for a trend change end Dec. I was a little premature it turns out. I also had a lot going on during Dec and wasn't able to develop more time to study it.
  • #15,307
  • Jan 12, 2012 12:00pm Jan 12, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting SunTrader
Most definitely...other words change of trend.

So I will buy any pullbacks until charts say differently.
Thank you.
  • #15,308
  • Jan 12, 2012 12:08pm Jan 12, 2012 12:08pm
...oops. I gate crashed this party, so I am going to humbly leave.

This IS a great thread and gold and silver are now the only viable currencies which I am sure most of you probably realise now.

Just make sure you own the real stuff (not the paper trades) when the music stops.

Best,
KR
  • #15,309
  • Edited 2:56pm Jan 12, 2012 1:49pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
Most definitely.

Measuring the two previous upswings and the most current one since the intermediate high (Wave B) was made on Nov 8th +5.78% over 9 days, +5.17% over 4 days and up to this point +9.15% over 10 days (and counting).

This is what is called an overbalance of time and price or another words change of trend.

So I will buy any pullbacks until charts say differently.

If some remember in late Nov (date?) I was looking for a trend change end Dec. I was a little premature it turns out. I also had a lot going on during Dec and...

Thank you for this, SunTrader. It is great to hear your analysis of how to discern whether a trend is shifting.

I remain at the sidelines, so please don't take this as a request for direct advice in the present.

When you have time, do you mind teaching me (us) a bit on your methods in determining when to jump in on a pullback?

For example, we saw a nice little pull back of around $18 from 1661 earlier today.

How do you look at this price action in your trading?

Once again - I am not asking for direct trading advice, but just want to learn from your experience and knowledge.

**Just so I am offering my own perspective (and not just asking others for help), I am researching the potential impact of Dodd-Frank regulations on gold/silver swaps and trying my best to make an educated play. I will trade again when the time comes for me, but I respect those who have traded through this volatility and managed to stay on top. I will report back whenever I believe I have learned something worthwhile.

Cheers
  • #15,310
  • Edited 2:39pm Jan 12, 2012 2:28pm | Edited 2:39pm
Look at my trades. They are simple. I am not stopped out and at this point I do not even need a stop loss (most likely Gold will not fall 100+ USD in one day.

I used a channel, support and resistance, the PREVAILING TREND and some moving averages. (which is still up) and patience. I also read a ton of news and decipher the $hit from the good. Simple.

Now, entry one which is a double, The idea is to build smaller orders as you go along, not the other way around, and entry 2 is a single.
Entry 1 = At current an appx 112.xx USD MOVE,
Entry 2 = At current an appz 70.xx USD MOVE,
totaling almost a 200 USD move.

This was not brain surgery, Once the channel dipped to the dip line it is a buy signal with stop, if it continues south either exit or get stopped out.

If it continues north, even if it takes days, you will be in a nice trade. Considering the buy area was in the 1500s and the top is over 400 USD higher in the 1920s.

You need to stop looking for a correlation for gold. It is it's own animal.
Yes silver may follow it, yet silver is an altogether completely different metal.
with far more industrial applications than Gold.

Don't have the idea you will tame gold, you will not, it will smack you right back to where you where. What you want is to UNDERSTAND it, and why it does what it does.

Keep in mind this is a weekly chart.

Also pick one time frame that corresponds with others and use those.
It is too confusing and counteractive to try and trade short term and long term.
Say you trade H1 - OK so you can go up and use H4 D1 and even W1
if you are silly enough to trade M1, then again M1, M15 and M30 maybe H1 as your max.


Quoting bumapatria
hard to catch tops on gold -

easy on crude.






hard to find good correlation to gold (except silver)



PS - i refuse gold to tame me. i will understand it more research about it more and will traed both long and short according to factors i have on hand. I will tame gold. in time. All shorts stopped out.

well done bulls !
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,311
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:30pm Jan 12, 2012 2:30pm
You are welcome to post.
New people are all welcome and many come and go.

Just try to read a bit and get acquainted.

Most of the latter posts have the people that are daily writers in them.

Yet there is a ton of good info from people that don't post any more like beeb.

Look at post one to start.
X

Quoting Knight Rider
...oops. I gate crashed this party, so I am going to humbly leave.

This IS a great thread and gold and silver are now the only viable currencies which I am sure most of you probably realise now.

Just make sure you own the real stuff (not the paper trades) when the music stops.

Best,
KR
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,312
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:26pm Jan 12, 2012 7:26pm
I think we are gointg to 1600 maybe lower.Retrace here from uptrend line.
Good will be sell 1640 SL 1665 TP 1600
  • #15,313
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:28pm Jan 12, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting Ravissek
I think we are gointg to 1600 maybe lower.Retrace here from uptrend line.
Good will be sell 1640 SL 1665 TP 1600
That would be a gift if it does occur.
  • #15,314
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:28pm Jan 12, 2012 7:28pm
Looks to be going down today as it broke a trend line.
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/4299/71966320.png
I'd wait for it to retrace up a bit first though.
Could probably sell at 1645/1646.
  • #15,315
  • Edited 7:49pm Jan 12, 2012 7:39pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting lilpip
bounce down from projected daily highs 1648 along with silvers weekly highs 30.16-26 noted.
daily close above 1635 and 29.80 bias is up and once again will be looking at weekly highs 1655 and 30.16-30.26 response. Will it be a rotation back or breakout ?
thur. daily
1653-55
1628
1603
silver
30.26-46
29.61
28.75
weekly and daily highs achieved.
friday daily pivot 1639, However we have the stronger weekly trend to consider as the the high being 1655 and a normal pattern is to extend out, hit the highs and rotate back.
Question of the week will the week close above quarterly trend guide 1632 ?
fri. daily
1667
1639
1611
daily close @ 30.25 and bounce down from 30.26 is noted.
30.87
29.83
28.79
  • #15,316
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:05pm Jan 12, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting Knight Rider
...oops. I gate crashed this party, so I am going to humbly leave.

This IS a great thread and gold and silver are now the only viable currencies which I am sure most of you probably realise now.

Just make sure you own the real stuff (not the paper trades) when the music stops.

Best,
KR
I don't think you Gate Crashed. I Like the Idea. I think you spoke to some friends who were at the point of understanding/Gaining from the DIBBS.
XT, MAY BEG TO DIFFER. But... It's about Reading The Market.
Use Everything You Know.

This is a Commodity Thread. How you get to Your Buys or Sells may be questioned but I DO Want to Read them

B
  • #15,317
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:11pm Jan 12, 2012 8:11pm
All I can say is sell sell sell and 1645/1646 (if you're lucky) is a great price for it.

Quoting Recluse
Another good entry point on this bounce. Upwards towards 1660.
Reached 1660 yesterday going up from 1641 (as it exited triangle).

It will be difficult around 1639 but I think we'll get down to 1630.
  • #15,318
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:14pm Jan 12, 2012 8:14pm
we are at the lower volatility range in the 30m and 15m - a break of the lower bands - im holding short.

alligator averages are moving downwards.
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this might be the drop i percieve - just in a different.. time.
but ill adapt if i have to - go long if i have to. must be like water.

as for support based on gann angles - we have long way down to go as we broke the 1x1 line. d1 close at 1649 - 55 proven resistance - i shouldve waited for the day to close to evaluate the situation...
but here we are.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,319
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:27pm Jan 12, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting Sreym33
I would like to share some of my learnings with the forum. I see a lot of people here trying to grab the tops and the bottoms, and I used to as well and got burned more times than I care to admit. Once in a while I caught one and it was great and that is what keeps pulling you in, but then you set your stops tight trying to catch the end of the trend and get stopped time and time again. One great analogy that I have adopted is one of the fish. You don't eat the tail or the head of a fish, the meat is in the body. Trading is the same. While...
But if you're judging whether the fish is poisonous or not, it's safer to bite the tail and spit it back out if it's the wrong fish. If it's the right fish, just keep eating all the way to the end.
If you start biting in the middle, it could all go wrong very fast.
That is, tighter stops if you're judging a tail. Wider stops if you're judging the meat.

If you're getting poisoned by the tail so much that it affects you maybe you're a bad judge of what poisonous fish look like?
  • #15,320
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:05pm Jan 12, 2012 9:05pm
Just dived right through 1639 resistance. Might be stuck there for a while but should hopefully see 1630 by the end of the day (my time).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
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