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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #14,881
  • Dec 29, 2011 7:35pm Dec 29, 2011 7:35pm
Nice Analysis dude, its at the bottom of the monthly channel too so if pinbar confirms in the next few days and Gold recalibrates against the Euro, might be the only trade you need to make this year!
Attached Image
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #14,882
  • Dec 29, 2011 8:56pm Dec 29, 2011 8:56pm
Thanks bud. The weekly bar has already retreated back into the channel.

Not sure if anyone here uses the Parabolic SAR indicator but I use it to get a feel of where the trend maybe going. What I've noted is that the indicator has shown a shift in momentum. Now it maybe just a false positive as manipulation has been rampant of late but it's something I'm keeping my eye on. What I've noticed with this particular indicator is that rarely does it just show one dot (see chart attached). There are always several that follow once one appears which would suggest more downward movement. Also the indicator seems to be more accurate in determining momentum shifts on higher time frames. I don't use it that often but it is certainly noted. If anyone has more experience with this indicator please let me know your thoughts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,883
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:31pm Dec 29, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting birons
.........Now it maybe just a false positive as manipulation has been rampant of late but it's something I'm keeping my eye on.....
Not another one.

Got something you can point to other than "it shouldn't be going down" at this time.
  • #14,884
  • Edited Dec 30, 2011 12:10am Dec 29, 2011 11:45pm | Edited Dec 30, 2011 12:10am
Quoting lilpip
My eyes are open to a daily close below 1551 and a follow up confirming day to verify more downside.
this area of 1551 has been of support not only the yearly breakout but also this week (1544) and months (1555) projected lows lines up for support also.
However, heads up if we start trading below 1554-1555 as the daily close at 1556 is noted.
Silver confirmed with the 2nd weekly close below $30 and did as expected and even a bit more as she moved threw weekly lows 27.55, her retest of that area yesterday was noted lets see what the pa is today....
Although a break below the 1544-55 area the daily close back up at $1 above projected weekly lows 1544, which normally cancels the breakout.
A normal weekly cycle is to extend out and rotate back, however we are dealing with the stronger primary yearly trend. If were going up we have to get above daily pivot 1558 and this 1551-1558 area first as bias is down from daily trend guide 1558 with eye on 1544 response.
Bounce up at 1544 and 1551 is noted.
fri daily.
1588-98
1558
1517-20
silvers daily close @ 27.72 back above weekly lows 27.55 is noted. Bias is down from 27.79 with eye on 27.55 response.
fri daily
29.40
27.79
26.12
  • #14,885
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:05am Dec 30, 2011 12:05am
Hi SunTrader,

No, that's all I've got, other than Bix Weir calling a bottom but he's been wrong for the last 6 months or so. I have no idea where it's going really. Would be interested to get your perspective.

Quoting SunTrader
Not another one.

Got something you can point to other than "it shouldn't be going down" at this time.
  • #14,886
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:53am Dec 30, 2011 12:53am
Quoting birons
D1 shows pinbar so I'm anticipating upward movement today. Pinbars have been quite accurate so ignore them at your peril (as I did on the 21st). I guess it's possible the week could close within the weekly channel. RSI on H1 looks bullish. Of course none of the technicals matter if the cartel continues it's shenanigans, especially with the thin volume. First hurdle will be 1552ish (H1).

Long 1535.86
SL: 1522.72
TP: wait and see

Silver tested 26, which was instantly rejected back in September. Reaction this time wasn't as violent but was...
Now is too dangerous to buy we have weekly short wave,huge bears short wave

I want to see gold 1250.xx level as a minimum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,887
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:05am Dec 30, 2011 1:05am
Hey Doncex,

Good observation, I didn't even think to look at waves. Will tread carefully as I'm in atm, up about 200 pips so far.

Question, can you use the Sonic R system on weekly charts?
  • #14,888
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:19am Dec 30, 2011 1:19am
Just re-read your post. 1250.xx level?!! Wow you really see it going that low?

Quoting Doncex
Now is too dangerous to buy we have weekly short wave,huge bears short wave

I want to see gold 1250.xx level as a minimum
  • #14,889
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:31am Dec 30, 2011 1:31am
Was wondering if any of you guys ever tryed spread trading with gold and what you found out with it?

for example short eur/usd long gold something like that to let the dollar out of it.

I do this stuff sometimes on equities like short nasdaq long es things like that never tryed it with gold so i thought ask the gold pros here?

Maybe someone can answer me that, and what your experiences are with it.


Thanks Ingmar..
  • #14,890
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:36am Dec 30, 2011 1:36am
Quoting birons
Hey Doncex,

Good observation, I didn't even think to look at waves. Will tread carefully as I'm in atm, up about 200 pips so far.

Question, can you use the Sonic R system on weekly charts?
it is possible up 200,300 pips up,but in long distant T.A shows bear rules

Sonic or other waves system i see what shows pa analysing

next year can be bad for bulls

as a soros say " stock sell,currency sell,and otthers..",waiting for another world crisis wave

it is inevitable talking about other world crisis
  • #14,891
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:43am Dec 30, 2011 2:43am
World of pain.

Holding a 1800 june call.... since Dec 9th....

Put me out of my misery.
  • #14,892
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:23am Dec 30, 2011 3:23am
Quoting yg10
What's wrong with giantgroup's analysis? Dec-22 when price was ~1610 he predicted 1550 and lower.
Price has reached low of 1523 and now is 1546.
That is why i said he gave a great call, i appreciated his chart reading, as i cannot read charts, i follow the figures only

Hello Giantgroup, waiting for your input, where do you see it heading? is it a false up in your charts?
  • #14,893
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:26am Dec 30, 2011 3:26am
Hi I am new on the forum, although i've been reading it for
1/2 year.

Based on previous dip to 1560, I imagine going up to 1590 then dip again to even under 1500. Also exponential moving average (200days) suggesting this for me.

Opinions?
  • #14,894
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:33am Dec 30, 2011 3:33am
might be this is last leg of Downside some evidence please see charts these charts make happy to buyers
Closing above 1557 is upside pointing today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,895
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:44am Dec 30, 2011 3:44am
Quoting mmudasir
might be this is last leg of Downside some evidence please see charts these charts make happy to buyers
Closing above 1557 is upside pointing today
So according to your chart it says it may go down from here?
  • #14,896
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:49am Dec 30, 2011 3:49am
Quoting forexfacts
So according to your chart it says it may go down from here?
according to my chart closing above today 1557 or break through 1564 will open away for upside and longer term upside trend continuation
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  • #14,897
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:57am Dec 30, 2011 3:57am
Quoting mmudasir
according to my chart closing above today 1557 or break through 1564 will open away for upside and longer term upside trend continuation

Thanks for your input Mudasir
  • #14,898
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:19am Dec 30, 2011 4:19am
From yesterday's daily close, it appears that there's a pause in gold decline. Almost a morning star(???) 4H showed a clearer direction.....Notice a positive divergence on 4H and MACD on my second chart.
So today I'm buying. Took a position from 1545, Will add to position at 1567 and I think 1612 is likely going to be retested in the next few weeks.

However, as the daily price action is below the 200MA, I am keeping my stop loss very tightly. SL for my first long is now at 1549..... BE+ $4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,899
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:23am Dec 30, 2011 4:23am
Quoting forexfacts
Thanks for your input Mudasir
You welcome
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  • #14,900
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:29am Dec 30, 2011 4:29am
Moved my SL to 1556. Waiting for signal on 5m to add further to my long....
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