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  • #14,761
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:46pm Dec 21, 2011 9:46pm
I have intraday low at 1605.92. My system's 1 hr chart gave a sell @
1609.30 Could bounce here.
  • #14,762
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:00pm Dec 21, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting XTrade
Time I use tight stops is when I am scalping for like a 3 to 10 USD move and I think there is the possibility of a breakout in the opposite direction.

Gold averages about 30 bucks Hi to Lo a day these days,
using tight stops even while day trading is a sure fire way to lose.

And "so called hedging" is a way to lose even more.

[b]I have had in depth discussions with Mt4 brokers about what happens when you
"hedge" or take an opposing position in the same pair.

The response was so circled and twisted my head was spinning by the amount...
Hey X,

I think there is wisdom in this perspective, but I'm not sure that staying hedged is necessarily a bad move.

A great way to keep one toe in the water.

The key point, IMHO, is to see one's equity as the true account balance.

Staying hedged and paying some swap fees isn't such a bad move if you think you might catch a big move in the next quarter. I just don't believe one needs to take losses when the market is undecided. Better to take a confident loss on one side.

I don't follow what you are implying about what MT4 brokers are telling you about hedging against yourself. I sincerely want to hear more. I am not disagreeing with you.

Is there something I should know about what brokers do when I hedge against my position (for example, to wait for the insanity of the euro crisis to end)?
  • #14,763
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:07pm Dec 21, 2011 10:07pm
Retested 1608 pivot and bounced, still looking for move up.

As for hedging, you make a very good point XTrade about betting against yourself. I know a couple traders that base their whole system on hedging but set very tight TPs and never have SLs. Seems to work for them but I see issues when you've hedged losing positions too many times. One of the guys I know has hedged himself so many times that he doesn't have any equity left to make any moves. Sure his positions are frozen and the losses won't get any bigger but what's the point if you can't MAKE money.

Better to take a controlled loss, employ logical MM and find a better point to re-enter than having to continuously erode your hedged positions.

But hey what do I know, I'm still a noob at this.
  • #14,764
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:52pm Dec 21, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting Sreym33
Why are you back and forth with such tight stops? price is already back up to 1613.8 and you would have made money instead of losing both ways. been there, done that!! proper MM and large enough stops will go a long way. The only time I use tight stops if there is a breakout and it comes back to test. tight stops are a gamble in this market. just my 2 cents.
I made 3.80 off that short .... I'm not complaining, now waiting for some direction into euro session. I had a tight stop on the buy as it was a higher low pattern in a down trend... it was a counter trend entry.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #14,765
  • Dec 22, 2011 7:08am Dec 22, 2011 7:08am
Bought gold 1615 Tp 1740
  • #14,766
  • Dec 22, 2011 7:53am Dec 22, 2011 7:53am
Quoting hermanforex
Bought gold 1615 Tp 1740
Reason why? Besides it gets "cheaper" by the minute.
  • #14,767
  • Dec 22, 2011 8:35am Dec 22, 2011 8:35am
Its just how my strategy works. I dont short gold I only buy and if it drops another $100 or even $150 it gives me an even cheaper price to buy again.

What goes down must come up sooner or later
  • #14,768
  • Dec 22, 2011 8:39am Dec 22, 2011 8:39am
The masses seem very undecided on the fate of gold today. I got a MA cross up last night and then turned back... an even stronger one this morning at 6am est. and now down again...wait and see mode.

edit - 9:40 there she goes, a quick little jump up. will this stick?
  • #14,769
  • Dec 22, 2011 8:47am Dec 22, 2011 8:47am
Quoting hermanforex
Its just how my strategy works. I dont short gold I only buy and if it drops another $100 or even $150 it gives me an even cheaper price to buy again.

What goes down must come up sooner or later
While I am more or less on your side of the fence with respect to my bullish perspective, this is not the first time this strategy has been discussed on this forum.

If gold is crashed (yes, using it as a verb because it would be an intentional decision and not related to supply/demand) this coming year, how much of a drop can you afford before you risk account annihilation?

Despite the fact that gold, like silver, has a limited supply left underground, does not mean that market makers (or Money Masters) can't knock the price in any which direction.

Unless you have a big account that can absorb downward gyrations and a willingness to pay swaps for a long haul, be careful.

What I want is that China emerges as a large gold buyer - even more than it is now. If the embattled Euro countries are willing to sell their gold and suffer the consequences, then let countries with strong hands and a long term view pick up the slack. I would expect a lot of reluctance from any country on this front, but maybe I give these selfish politicians too much credit.
  • #14,770
  • Dec 22, 2011 8:53am Dec 22, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Wheels
Unless you have a big account that can absorb downward gyrations and a willingness to pay swaps for a long haul, be careful.
Wheels, what is your plan for releasing your hedge, what event are you waiting for?
  • #14,771
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:15am Dec 22, 2011 9:15am
Quoting Sreym33
Wheels, what is your plan for releasing your hedge, what event are you waiting for?
A bit of a rambling post as I'm heading out.

Put simply, less volatility. I know that reacting emotionally to the market is an account killer, and I also know that these wild swings do not inspire the cool calm and collected side of my personality I prefer.

Now might be a great time to drop my sell, but I would rather wait to see what first quarter brings.

If we see a big knock down, I would obviously get out of the sell and rehedge higher up. Was very close at 1575, but have felt the pain of picking a bottom inaccurately in the past and held on.

Others may disagree, but I can imagine a nice leg up in stocks and improved economic prospects in the second quarter of 2012, but anything before this point is still a mystery.

It will be an educated guess, but I will try to assess gold's correlation to stocks as we move into this period.

I am also waiting for the CFTC to do its job. Reporting requirements for large trader swaps have been extended to March. I may have to wait for a long time for this - and they may well extend it beyond the presidential election.

I will continue watching, waiting, and learning. If the right opportunity presents itself, I will de-hedge with the best available information. If the price does make a moonshot run, I will dehedge on top. If it comes down another $100, I will strongly consider dehedging.

I have a very flexible plan, but I see no need to take a loss or expose myself to the market at this stage. Swap fees are worthwhile for me because it provides enough incentive to continue to watch S/R levels and economic developments, rather than leaving my account and forgetting about the market while I pursue other projects.
  • #14,772
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:27am Dec 22, 2011 9:27am
Quoting Wheels
I have a very flexible plan, ...continue to watch S/R levels and economic developments, rather than leaving my account and forgetting about the market while I pursue other projects.
hope it all works out for you.
  • #14,773
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:30am Dec 22, 2011 9:30am
Quoting Sreym33
hope it all works out for you.
Thank you sir. And I you.

You've made some excellent calls in the past. Keep up the good work!!
  • #14,774
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:35am Dec 22, 2011 9:35am
Gold is still holding on in this holiday season, gold is a bit more confident than it should be

I want to see it in the 1400s because that to me will be the time when the race may start to the up.

But then again who knows !
  • #14,775
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:57am Dec 22, 2011 9:57am
Quoting forexfacts
Gold is still holding on in this holiday season, gold is a bit more confident than it should be
Is it really more confident? I am not making any calls here but just observations that there a lot of reasons why it should be confident. Hit the long standing trendline at 1560 and bounced up, 1600 is approx 75% fib pullback of the last move up from 1592 to 1641, markets still in turmoil, has recently been correlated with stocks and they are up, central bank buying, ECB lending 500 Bln out of thin air, low interest rates all over, etc... I know there are a lot of doomsayers but there is a lot of support.
  • #14,776
  • Dec 22, 2011 10:11am Dec 22, 2011 10:11am
Quoting Sreym33
Is it really more confident? I am not making any calls here but just observations that there a lot of reasons why it should be confident. Hit the long standing trendline at 1560 and bounced up, 1600 is approx 75% fib pullback of the last move up from 1592 to 1641, markets still in turmoil, has recently been correlated with stocks and they are up, central bank buying, ECB lending 500 Bln out of thin air, low interest rates all over, etc... I know there are a lot of doomsayers but there is a lot of support.

That is why i am bullish about it, the race may start from here but i feel for a better start it needs to go down a little more first, but thats my own opinion, can be completely wrong
  • #14,777
  • Dec 22, 2011 10:52am Dec 22, 2011 10:52am
you only buy?
show me more about your system!
Quoting hermanforex
Its just how my strategy works. I dont short gold I only buy and if it drops another $100 or even $150 it gives me an even cheaper price to buy again.

What goes down must come up sooner or later
  • #14,778
  • Dec 22, 2011 11:03am Dec 22, 2011 11:03am
Quoting hermanforex
Its just how my strategy works.....

What goes down must come up sooner or later
At some point, yes. Can you hang in there is the question.

That is fine but forgive me if this sound harsh but what benefit it is to others that you post - bought here, target price there.

You are averaging in on the way down. Not much anyone else can gain by hearing that and as well you are picking a random dollar amount to base entry decisions. And tp not sure what that is all about either.
  • #14,779
  • Dec 22, 2011 12:25pm Dec 22, 2011 12:25pm
I feel about as bullish about gold as I do the Euro. For the last 4 weeks they have been trading together as shown by the two 4 hours charts below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 61 KB
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,780
  • Dec 22, 2011 12:32pm Dec 22, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting AaronWard
I feel about as bullish about gold as I do the Euro. For the last 4 weeks they have been trading together as shown by the two 4 hours charts below.
very true. Market analysts have attributed this to liquidity-selling off gold as the Euro drops. Will this correlation change soon due to the cash injection yesterday?
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