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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #14,681
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:43pm Dec 19, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting giantgroup
Seems to me the only reasonable thing now in commodities trading these last days of the years is scalping. I've been scalping in the direction of shorts and it's giving me a success rate of 80 to 90%.
Can't be certain that the correction is through..... still a significant tendency to the downside.
Disagree with first statement. Agree with second.
  • #14,682
  • Dec 19, 2011 8:38pm Dec 19, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting XTrade
Agreed, and equally surprised.........

let's sum it up to simple risk off and profit taking.

the bidding war will start soon...
About Gold: Don’t Panic!!!



It’s momentary—and it’s because of the euro.

This post is adapted from analysis which appeared last week in The Strategic Planning Group.

For those of us watching the gold markets—that is, those of us anticipating the collapse of the euro and the eventual collapse of the dollar—the last week has been a scary ride: Gold has fallen over 8.6%, from a high of $1,730 on December 7 to $1,580 on December 14.

WTF???, I can practically hear everyone say. The fundamentals would point to gold being a safe haven play—it should not be falling: If anything, it ought to be rising.

But a fall of 8.6%? In a week?

The first thing that pops into my head is, Don’t Panic!!

The second thing that pops into my head is, This is to be expected—and is only a temporary pullback.

Let’s take the second notion first: The reason the fall in gold is to be expected—and the reason it might well fall further—is because of the euro.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011...anic.html#more

This dude makes a fine work when it comes to explaining things and speculating, I think everyone should give it a read.
  • #14,683
  • Dec 19, 2011 8:53pm Dec 19, 2011 8:53pm
tue. daily
1670
1610-11
1550-60
  • #14,684
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:08pm Dec 19, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting Pbh
About Gold: Don’t Panic!!!



It’s momentary—and it’s because of the euro.

This post is adapted from analysis which appeared last week in The Strategic Planning Group.

For those of us watching the gold markets—that is, those of us anticipating the collapse of the euro and the eventual collapse of the dollar—the last week has been a scary ride:
But a fall of 8.6%? In a...
The price action is similar to silvers in mid sept. as we look at the weekly chart.
  • #14,685
  • Edited 10:03pm Dec 19, 2011 9:28pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting Roncho
Well, usually don't do short term, but if you look at the 1hr chart I have attached.
Upcoming levels to watch are 1745, 1675, 1720, 1740. With 1640-1660 a psychological level to watch from Sept-Oct this year.
Coincidentally it also approximately matches with the half point region of my channel.
So Just watching the price that's all. If price encounters difficulty there, I'll close half my lots and watch. Otherwise its to the next level.

Hope this provides better info.
Although you look at the resistance as short term and only a 1 hr., consider and appreciate what you have their.
Your 1740 area was the months trend guide or pivot (1749) at Dec open.
your 1720 was the weekly trend guide or pivot for that week.
your 1645 is a top of a quarterly channel that I also consider.
your 1555 is dec. projected lows.
All the above although picked up on the smaller time frame, they are dealing with Higher timeframes which means stronger trends.
cycles whithin cycles, more than just an hrly on a smaller timeframe.
  • #14,686
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:34pm Dec 19, 2011 10:34pm
Look at this trendline on the daily closes.

Price could hover around 1600 for another month and still be valid.
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  • #14,687
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:48pm Dec 19, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting ikdenk
Look at this trendline on the daily closes.
One things for sure, we will know if papa bear starts to put his other leg down.
  • #14,688
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:51pm Dec 19, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting ikdenk
Look at this trendline on the daily closes.

Price could hover around 1600 for another month and still be valid.
The thing with charts is there is always another way to look at it. Here is London Gold Fixing data with trendline clearly showing breakdown (looks similiar on a weekly basis):
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  • #14,689
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:33pm Dec 19, 2011 11:33pm
Quoting SunTrader
The thing with charts is there is always another way to look at it. Here is London Gold Fixing data with trendline clearly showing breakdown (looks similiar on a weekly basis):
this just shows 2011, where the other is back out to 2010, I believe thats the difference.
  • #14,690
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:40pm Dec 19, 2011 11:40pm
between the three I made 100 pips pretty weak indeed...
Quoting Bemac
Weak Week is the best you can hope for in the Markets.
Hug A Few looks Bullish to me.
B
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,691
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:42pm Dec 19, 2011 11:42pm
not trying to be brash. I stand behind my call though with gumption and conviction. She will get there.

I am enjoying myself some Christmas physical at these prices though:

Quoting Bemac
Whooahhh there Big Fella...
I Agree But the bell rang for "Playtime" Playtime in this genre will conclude sometime Mid to Late January.
Step Down. Hug a Few & perhaps even remember why your Home Address is what it is. I Like you guys. But I'm not searching my brain to find the perfect Santa Gift. (I still have 2 more to go)
Selfish & Proud? Damn Absaflog. I worked for it & They deserve it.
ps. sorry if it cost you.
B
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,692
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:50pm Dec 19, 2011 11:50pm
feel free to always speak your mind. you are not stepping on my toes mate.

You are correct and I agree. I am just so accustomed to shorting it at this point I'm honing my counter trend (against rules) trading skills.

The market is thin. My positions are small and short in time at this time of year. I'll roll gold into the new year though.

Quoting SunTrader
X,

Thank you. I was going to mention something about ... don't follow me what do I know trade at your own risk blab blah

As if someone needs to be told that but I didn't want to step on your toes.

Now about the dollar - maybe it shouldn't have strength but it does, recently anyway, and I find it hard to go against until the uptrend shows some kind of reversal.

Just my 2cents.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,693
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:51pm Dec 19, 2011 11:51pm
Right now she is wrapping herself around the LTL of the weekly channel...

Not the dip line.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,694
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:54pm Dec 19, 2011 11:54pm
Here;s an example in a chart.

We are slightly above. ATM. Did not like rejection at 1610.

look at blue line.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,695
  • Edited 12:16am Dec 20, 2011 12:00am | Edited 12:16am
Quoting XTrade

I am enjoying myself some Christmas physical at these prices though:
Dont forget your silver and maybe some more at 24-25, dont forget to have some handy for your first swap at the 20-1 ratio.
Also, we need some for our reward at the 2012 highs and maybe a little more if we have a yearly breakout as this year and last. However, so no breakout as of today because I believe the banks have enough room to move and make their money to get their job done as they have manipulation on their side.
  • #14,696
  • Dec 20, 2011 12:01am Dec 20, 2011 12:01am
aussie and kiwi going for break of mini downward channels right now
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,697
  • Dec 20, 2011 12:04am Dec 20, 2011 12:04am
Yessir! we will get the break. I am going to buy silver next, part of my last purchase is on my homepage a 3 ozt PAMP silver bar.

I am pissed though because my favorite broker just opened an office in NY and now I have to pay tax on orders....

That was part of the beauty of shopping with them and not the coin shop...
Quoting lilpip
Dont forget your silver and maybe some more at 24-25, dont forget to have some handy for your first swap at the 20-1 ratio.
Also, we need some for our reward at the 2012 highs and maybe a little more if we have a yearly breakout as this year and last.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,698
  • Edited 12:33am Dec 20, 2011 12:22am | Edited 12:33am
Quoting XTrade

I am pissed though because my favorite broker just opened an office in NY and now I have to pay tax on orders....

That was part of the beauty of shopping with them and not the coin shop...
I thought with cash theres no tax. Find a local dealer, better yet get to know several local dealers.
I visit about 6 in a 60 mile radius.
For When things get hectic they know you and to keep a feel for availability, premiums, etc. when things get hot.
  • #14,699
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:51am Dec 20, 2011 2:51am
Quoting XTrade
Yessir! we will get the break. I am going to buy silver next, part of my last purchase is on my homepage a 3 ozt PAMP silver bar.

I am pissed though because my favorite broker just opened an office in NY and now I have to pay tax on orders....

That was part of the beauty of shopping with them and not the coin shop...
TAXES? I have only spread.What taxes you mean?
  • #14,700
  • Dec 20, 2011 4:04am Dec 20, 2011 4:04am
( for reference )
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