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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #13,801
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:09pm Nov 30, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting bumapatria
Hi bemac i read ur thread from long ago on time after time, do u apply some 'time' to gold as well?

just wondering
Always.
But sad to say; it is not codeable as yet. It is progressing from Art to Tech but still has some aspects that cannot include "If + If Plus But..."
No Black Box Trading just yet. What kinda fun would That be.
Let me in the Ring. Old In This Game is Good.
"Show Me de Man"

B
  • #13,802
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:11pm Nov 30, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting Bemac
Absoflogginlutely I will. We have an accord.

ICCE gives me some clues as to where Price may react.
Here's a zoomed out pic of the same Chart.
Attachment

Hope this helps but I'm guessing it just Added to your Study Material.


B
hehehe...yes you did....thxs Will check it out.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #13,803
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:49pm Nov 30, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting Bemac
Always.
But sad to say; it is not codeable as yet. It is progressing from Art to Tech but still has some aspects that cannot include "If + If Plus But..."
No Black Box Trading just yet. What kinda fun would That be.
Let me in the Ring. Old In This Game is Good.
"Show Me de Man"

B
nice to know that someone else is a cycle trader

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,804
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:32am Dec 1, 2011 2:32am
Coil ?
Attached Image
  • #13,805
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:03am Dec 1, 2011 3:03am
Quoting abc2010
Little bit off topic but what you can expect from euro.. flushing down the toilet, COTs suggest some (surprise?) upside action in EURUSD but just for technical reasons.. I will not trust this beast created by some politicians which do crazy thing all the time.
Hi Abc, I like your taking the cot into account, but I thought the COT is 100% fundamental?
Patience is magic
  • #13,806
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:24am Dec 1, 2011 3:24am
Quoting Bemac
@ Muntu & Imiebcm.
I forsee a "First Bracket" in PA between 1,723 to 1,771
Attachment

If the Upside is not achieved on MY current Daily Bar, I will reduce the Target to 1,769.

B
Thank the monarch for input. I will wait till after nfp before transforming my mental stop (now at BE just below 1700) to a hard one. And then the hardest part will begin: to sit on my fingers.
Patience is magic
  • #13,807
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:43am Dec 1, 2011 4:43am
Quoting muntu ntu
Hi Abc, I like your taking the cot into account, but I thought the COT is 100% fundamental?
Sure COT is somewhat fundamental, but that thing you trade isnt real, it is based on belief, on consensus of 15 or more totaly different countries mentalities, and national interrests, with ability to do magic with oficial numbers at any given time or change rules and cut off 50% of debt in no time without warning. Everything change so rapidly in many different directions that I am one of those which couldnt make his mind in which direction "EURo project" will go. When there is fear and uncertainty and heavy loads of offshore speculative cash, sometimes COT dont fully represent all cash which was put to work in that market. At this stage I am not only one who want to make big bets and profit quickly from debt overload collapse, so while members states have some small amounts from taxation large piles of cash are outside control of these states. Look on various interventions, they have no chance against market. Sometimes money on one side of trade is so big that currency fall in one direction no matter what technicals can be seen.
  • #13,808
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:59am Dec 1, 2011 4:59am
Hi All,

I need your technical review over below point.

I have seen that on 28th November Gold has created big window before becoming bullish. Do you all think that Gold will fall back to close this window? This window is seen on 10min, 30min & 5hrs candlestick charts. Most of you feel that it is bullish. I am hesitant to but gold. rather I am on short side on all possible highs.

Please share you views.
Attached Image
  • #13,809
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:29am Dec 1, 2011 5:29am
just made nice scalp on gold +40.



will share higher tf analysis after this post
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldie scalp.gif Size: 13 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,810
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:56am Dec 1, 2011 6:56am
Quoting abc2010
Sure COT is somewhat fundamental, but that thing you trade isnt real, it is based on belief, on consensus of 15 or more totaly different countries mentalities, and national interrests, with ability to do magic with oficial numbers at any given time or change rules and cut off 50% of debt in no time without warning. Everything change so rapidly in many different directions that I am one of those which couldnt make his mind in which direction "EURo project" will go. When there is fear and uncertainty and heavy loads of offshore speculative cash,...
I would trust the cot better when dealing with actual commodities, metals or agricultural, that have no other than the supply and demand imbalances to jump in and trick every thing.
Who are the producers and the consumers of a currency anyway? For silver for instance, you can point at the jewelers as the commercial consumers.
Patience is magic
  • #13,811
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:09am Dec 1, 2011 7:09am
i got 8 pips out from my short from yesterday. aint much happening now. so ranging crap. will stay out, until action starts...

although my gut feeling is it should fall a bit.
  • #13,812
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:11am Dec 1, 2011 7:11am
Quoting Rahul_Gold
Hi All,

I need your technical review over below point.

I have seen that on 28th November Gold has created big window before becoming bullish. Do you all think that Gold will fall back to close this window? This window is seen on 10min, 30min & 5hrs candlestick charts. Most of you feel that it is bullish. I am hesitant to but gold. rather I am on short side on all possible highs.

Please share you views.
Hi Rahul

I have 3 data feeds and none of them show this gap - my MT4 feed is the only one I have worked out how to upload so here it is.

Your post echos my frustration with data feeds - the main one I use showed xauusd trading down to < 1680 over 20 mins from the start of Asian open today and xaueur went down to <1250 - started my day with an electric shock, for sure!

I would suggest using more than 1 data feed to weed out "glitches" like these - MT4 is free but so are many others which are probably good also.

And as for being bullish, with the Fed now pretty much financing the rest of the world with their printing presses, by definition this creates inflation (they are inflating the world's money supply), ultimately this will be bullish for commodities (at least in the short-medium term), particularly gold which people view as an inflation hedge. (whether this is correct or not is almost irrelevant, the fact that many people <influenced by mainstream media> think this is the case, sets it up as a self-fulfillling prophecy). So while there will be ups and downs, I think that the news from the Fed and China last night are definitely bullish for gold.

The counter argument of course is that the world's economies are in such bad shape that we are heading to a new level of financial crisis, and fear is certainly a greater driver than greed, which means that dips down on bad news/rumours may be severe due to liquidation of gold and other precious metals to finance drops in equity prices. Ultimately however I feel that now that the Fed has finally come out and said that they will not let Europe implode, they will kick the can a while longer and print some more $ to ward off disintegration for a while, that so-called inflation hedges like gold will be used more and more.

Coupled with this is that the S&P 500 currently has pretty much the lowest debt/earnings ratio ever, economic data coming out of the US has been exceeding expectations, I think we will be surprised to the upside in the near future in both equities and PMs.

I guess this is more of a fundamental review, but add that to the technicals in the ICCE chart that Bemac has been posting (refer post 13923) - I would post my own but it is identical - this results in me being very hesitant to seriously short unless channel scalping (which is not my style). I therefore have an overall bullish view that I look to confirm with chart technicals - I don't generally take a trade until it all lines up.

I hope this helps and doesn't just completely bamboozle you - to me the technicals need to have a fundamental (fact, rather than mainstream news-related) base!!

cheers Cath
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gap.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #13,813
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:11am Dec 1, 2011 7:11am
Quoting bumapatria
just made nice scalp on gold +40.



will share higher tf analysis after this post
gold has barely moved 10 pips since this morning. not sure how you managed to get 40 pips by scalping....!

or was it yesterdays trade ?
  • #13,814
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:13am Dec 1, 2011 7:13am
Quoting muntu ntu
I would trust the cot better when dealing with actual commodities, metals or agricultural, that have no other than the supply and demand imbalances to jump in and trick every thing.
Who are the producers and the consumers of a currency anyway? For silver for instance, you can point at the jewelers as the commercial consumers.
what website do u use for cot info ?
  • #13,815
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:18am Dec 1, 2011 7:18am
Quoting whatfx
gold has barely moved 10 pips since this morning. not sure how you managed to get 40 pips by scalping....!

or was it yesterdays trade ?
uh dude it was moving. its today i can assure u that.

i never see u scalp with a chart so wheres YOUR chaart ?

hehehe
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,816
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:42am Dec 1, 2011 7:42am
Quoting bumapatria
uh dude it was moving. its today i can assure u that.

i never see u scalp with a chart so wheres YOUR chaart ?

hehehe
cant see any scalps on the chart you posted ?

my short was opened yesterday. closed it today for 8 pips only.
  • #13,817
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:15am Dec 1, 2011 8:15am
today really sucks.

hardly much happening. just made a miserable 35 pips on eu, and a crappy 8 pips on gold. really terrible........

this week so far only 33 pips on gold. way short of my minimum 60 pips weekly target. hope i can make it up by tomorrow end. otherwise a very shitty week !!

iam off for the day. cant take this slowness.
  • #13,818
  • Dec 1, 2011 10:05am Dec 1, 2011 10:05am
Many of the major stock indexes are hitting resistance and retracing part (or more later?) of yesterday's big move.
  • #13,819
  • Dec 1, 2011 10:10am Dec 1, 2011 10:10am
Quoting CathS
Hi Rahul

I have 3 data feeds and none of them show this gap - my MT4 feed is the only one I have worked out how to upload so here it is.

Your post echos my frustration with data feeds - the main one I use showed xauusd trading down to < 1680 over 20 mins from the start of Asian open today and xaueur went down to <1250 - started my day with an electric shock, for sure!

I would suggest using more than 1 data feed to weed out "glitches" like these - MT4 is free but so are many others which are probably good also.

And as for being bullish,...
Great analysis, CathS.
Also,there are those brokers that show no quote at the week end when trading re starts. But if I am not mistaken there is a gap, between last friday's close (red candle) and the subsequent open (green candle above the previous close). Which is consistent with the huge gaps on main FX pairs that are also still open.
Patience is magic
  • #13,820
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:35pm Dec 1, 2011 12:35pm
hello gold traders.

This day Gold was on 1750.
It is came back to 1700, or go higher .What you mean?
steve
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