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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #13,741
  • Edited 9:02pm Nov 29, 2011 8:42pm | Edited 9:02pm
i will go long if the price goes above 1752 ...and then the target will be 1872...but time will show God bless us all !
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,742
  • Nov 29, 2011 8:46pm Nov 29, 2011 8:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
Although your chart is more than a simple price target on it there is something not right. Either your data is incorrect, or probably more likely, the label saying this is a daily chart is not right.

Because it displays about 200 (?) bars but the last time on a daily chart price was down at $10 was 2009 or about 700 bars ago.

Also I have a different wave count which time will tell which is correct.

Opps forget last point, I have the same - basically.
my old chart..
  • #13,743
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:11pm Nov 29, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting Sreym33
After today when the EZ signed off on Greece's 6th bailout I am 100% bulllish. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eur...nds-2011-11-29
Check out the daily Gold chart at the beginning of July when they received the 5th tranche of aid.
Here are the technical facts: We are just starting wave 3 which should be the largest, of course, and should run to $1969. The last down move stopped at 1667 which is exactly a 50% pullback from the 1532 to 1802. Nice retrace... price did not breach the 150 SMA which...
I concur with your analysis too
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #13,744
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:15pm Nov 29, 2011 9:15pm
well..this is my map on this pair....it has to decide one direction...and i have prepared traps for it on the way on both directions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 383979_332622823421670_303663036317649_1599445_598832492_n.jpg Size: 80 KB
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,745
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:46pm Nov 29, 2011 9:46pm
Notice how the 200 SMA daily is creeping above the bottom of the weekly channel line!

Think we might be.
------------------------------------
My week has consisted of In and out of Aussie and Kiwi.

I have to say the best trades were the Gap open set up on last Friday with SLs and TPs and last night I woke up at about 2 AM EST I believe, maybe earlier, Took profit, then re-set up AUD and NZD with stop and TP and said F-it. I had my risk reward set exactly to my liking, about 1:2

Woke up TP'd out as a fluke at SIX am much to my delight. Can't beat making some green while sleeping.

In any case Then I started to break rules and overtrade. Gave a few pips back to the fish and started the day.

Normally, with the style I have been using, Position trading, Longer term trades, lower lot sizes and bigger stops , yet much bigger take profits, I would have been working with, BUT, I have to admit, after seeing a 90 pip gap on Aussie and other various gaps anti USD I chose to proceed with caution.

Thus, I have set the tone. For currencies this week at least for myself. Just TPd AUD and Kiwi from US session and bought back.

Really looking to see Gold above 1750 soon and silver back at 35.
Quoting Sreym33
After today when the EZ signed off on Greece's 6th bailout I am 100% bulllish. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eur...nds-2011-11-29
Check out the daily Gold chart at the beginning of July when they received the 5th tranche of aid.
Here are the technical facts: We are just starting wave 3 which should be the largest, of course, and should run to $1969. The last down move stopped at 1667 which is exactly a 50% pullback from the 1532 to 1802. Nice retrace... price did not breach the 150 SMA which...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,746
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:48pm Nov 29, 2011 9:48pm
I'd say sub 1600 at this point is wishful thinking.We were just there and double bottomed inside the channel.

Any reason besides techs (which I personally don't see supporting plan A) you are considering this?

Quoting selym_co
well..this is my map on this pair....it has to decide one direction...and i have prepared traps for it on the way on both directions
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,747
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:52pm Nov 29, 2011 9:52pm
i dont have any reasons...i just believe in geometric harmony in the market...and everything fits the scenario up to now !
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,748
  • Edited 10:37pm Nov 29, 2011 10:11pm | Edited 10:37pm
tommorow is decision time for gold.

most likely a short. or a long.... ?

never have bias ill just see PA on that area, and see what to do aftr


definitely tommorow for me is a gold harmony cycle day. venus conjunct pluto natural cycle of gold swings.

i see selym looks to go short on silver
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldd1.gif Size: 21 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,749
  • Edited 10:31pm Nov 29, 2011 10:19pm | Edited 10:31pm
i am already short in silver with +30...and my target is 27,50 (i know it sounds to be so far) ...and i was just waiting for 1730 to be reached in gold to place my SELL order before i go to bed...But it didnt reach that target...so i will just place a pending order...
the market always respects geometry...so news shud not be the dominant elemnt while deciding the direction of the price (this is my opinion) ...and Xtrade i really know that u are very experienced about this pair...so i try my best to be respectful to you...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,750
  • Edited 10:38pm Nov 29, 2011 10:23pm | Edited 10:38pm
It takes quite some time to change a trend, check out the daily trendline changing today and notice the 50 SMA now reversed back up. 1726 has been resistance and support in the past, once we break and retest...1750 then 1800.

Also, we are forming a bullish flat top triangle. looks like a jump to 1785 is coming.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 184 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #13,751
  • Nov 29, 2011 10:50pm Nov 29, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting Sreym33
It takes quite some time to change a trend, check out the daily trendline changing today and notice the 50 SMA now reversed back up. 1726 has been resistance and support in the past, once we break and retest...1750 then 1800.

Also, we are forming a bullish flat top triangle. looks like a jump to 1785 is coming.
that is consuming buyers in my opinion. flat top it can always crash below imo.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,752
  • Nov 29, 2011 10:54pm Nov 29, 2011 10:54pm
and here is another theory...but the head-shoulders formation is not completed yet and has not broken the neckline...so its just a possibility in the future...if it breaks the neckline then the target might be 1531....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 385018_332662840084335_303663036317649_1599591_1784816253_n.jpg Size: 73 KB
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #13,753
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:08pm Nov 29, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting selym_co
and here is another theory...but the head-shoulders formation is not completed yet and has not broken the neckline...so its just a possibility in the future...if it breaks the neckline then the target might be 1531....
am waiting for 29 to cap.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,754
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:49pm Nov 29, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting bumapatria
tommorow is decision time for gold.

most likely a short. or a long.... ?
Are you asking or commenting. Yes most likely it will be one or the other
considering those are the only way things go.

Saying that a price will go up or down is useless and it helps no one but MOST OF ALL it doesn't help Y O U !

Quoting bumapatria
never have bias ill just see PA on that area, and see what to do aftr
As a trader you need to have a bias of some sort or at least a VALID plan.
You need to work on this.

To just watch the price action bend one way and say "oh it looks like it's going up so I'll buy" is not trading, it is flipping a coin.

that price can turn around so fast and fall 100 pips in your face on a dime if
a headline drops, stops are triggered, world calamity, etc, etc, etc, anything
can happen at any time and you need to be prepared.

Without a bias, a plan, or a strict set of rules based on a SYSTEM that has worked for YOU (no one else matters unless it's their money) you have nothing and are setting yourself up to SUREFIRE lose all your money down to the last red cent.

Quoting bumapatria
definitely tommorow for me is a gold harmony cycle day. venus conjunct pluto natural cycle of gold swings.
Yes gold swings daily, and you have started here to disclose some sort of
"bias" which would appear to be getting long. Take this and elaborate on it to yourself. See how you got there.

Quoting bumapatria
i see selym looks to go short on silver
No clue what you are talking about. What the ? E D I T: O ok the poster. Well again, don't worry about what others are doing,
YOU NEED TO MAKE THE CALLS ON YOUR ACCOUNT. Not even the vast majority on an internet forum about retail trading.

Why? Because they could be WRONG. Again. Bias/Plan/System SOMETHING.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,755
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:59pm Nov 29, 2011 11:59pm
Here again, you are contradicting yourself in the same sentence.

Are you continually posting both sides because you are afraid to be wrong? Be wrong, LEARN from your mistakes.
Make a call and stick to it because you believe in it for technical, fundamental, news, or any combo of reasons.

This is NoT going to get you ANYWHERE in trading, especially Gold. eh
Quoting bumapatria
that is consuming buyers in my opinion. flat top it can always crash below imo.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,756
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:11am Nov 30, 2011 12:11am
@x, i cant predict the future. i have no bias until that day.

a date is a date. a date is where i watch price for a possible swing.

i just say that that dude is goign short, i still have no bias, and that alone is not due to confusion but due to no decision made at that time yet.

i am going to trade this one live no doubt.

if u want bias plan

right now it looks to the short side but if EU and xau's correlation is out of place, and is at currently at 18-22/100 (100 being positively correlated) and it looks to go to negative correlation soon. i woudl look to short gold. plan? see price action for possible short. its with the trend and its safer as this to me is a pullback. price and time if met is inevitable. therefore the ratio of success is higher if i look to go with the momentum. 50% of whole trend, chances are im selling a high than a low.


i posted my chart, i said my plan.

if PA invalidates and clears 40 plan is out.

for now call : Short XAU/USD.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,757
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:28am Nov 30, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Goldmansacks
Hello...

so back to it... why $73.xx and what is your time frame? and where did this figure come from ?
Timeframe from months to more than a year to reach that target.

Here is another picture to tell where I got that TP.
Attached Image
  • #13,758
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:59am Nov 30, 2011 1:59am
Morning all,

I've been taking a break from gold lately but looking today I'm finding it hard to form a bias in either direction. The daily looks like it is either trending up and having trouble pushing through the confluenced area at 1720/25ish (the 50% retracement & upper TL of the weekly channel) - or it is forming the right shoulder of an H&S pattern.

The second option is more in keeping with the weekly story which is looking like it's entereing a downtrend. However another way of interpreting the weekly is to see that it has corrected from an overly exuberant upmove and now is settling back into its previous channel.

With all the news, rumours, tweets etc and confusion in the FA side of things it's really hard (for me) to try and form a short/medium (next few weeks/months) outlook. I'd love to have an acocunt size that supported position trades with huge stops, but I don't so I'm being very careful with my powder and sticking to the volatile FX pairs for pumping and dumping.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_daily.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_weekly.gif Size: 18 KB
Anything can happen.
  • #13,759
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:05am Nov 30, 2011 2:05am
Here's another daily correlation chart of Gold and the S&P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Sand1D.gif Size: 25 KB
Anything can happen.
  • #13,760
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:28am Nov 30, 2011 3:28am
well...i just woke up after a few nightmares that gold was rushing up ...anyway...i read the mini-discussion between buma and xtrade..and somehow i felt guilty for it ...i apologize both buma and xtrade for causing such a discussion..
On the other side my posts are NOT calls and i just share the screenshot of my screen and my analysis...thats all...and noone can predict the future with 100% performance.and yes x trade is an experienced trader about gold-silver and some other pairs and yes experience can lead u to success in case you expertise on ur target pair..thats for sure...so maybe it was rude to share the screenshots here...sorry xtrade !

regards...i hope everyone gets some pips...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
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