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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #13,641
  • Edited 2:36pm Nov 24, 2011 1:11pm | Edited 2:36pm
I don't mean to never use correlations. They can be helpful.

What I was trying to say is not to look at another financial trading instrument like the Dow, The Euro, Copper, etc. , See a correlation to Gold and then assume that gold will do the same or base trades on the correlation for an extended period of time.

They all usually break down at some point.

Here is a chart of the GOLD SPOT with the USD OverlayeD -E D I T: looking at it again in this period the two were basically moving in tandem,gold up usd up and gold down usd down, not in the last segment under my line u can see gold broke down to support and the USD continued up. If you were betting based on prior correlation that gold would have followed, you would have been stopped out.Or at least in the red. ----- Look at the sort of double top formation on gold. Then look at the USD line. It made the exact same dip.Except on gold's second top, that seems to be where the correlation AU ^ USD ^ seemed to decorrelate creating GOLD v USD ^ which happens to be the more classic relationship/ correlation.

Let's look at another correlation of the two on a higher time frame in the next post.

You can see (the liine i drew) (and the highlighted area)
thAT at times recently they have moved together up. and sideways. And moved inversely (the more recent area on chart,) they are inverse again.


Quoting XTrade
Here is another mini lesson.

Don't always try (as many do not just you) to correlate GOLD to something else.
[quote=muntu ntu;5163787]
Not even the dollar index?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gOLD USD CORR NOVE.GIF Size: 115 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,642
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:29pm Nov 24, 2011 2:29pm
Interesting post. Sounds like the seller is smelting or having made by another party fresh new silver.

That's about how long it takes.

I remember when I bought during the shortage of 2007/8 when silver was about 7 or 8 bucks for a bit and NO ONE HAD. One mint took my order with a disclosure that it would be guaranteed to be delivered but it could take up to two months. They gave themselves an extra month,

When I got the stuff - boy was it fresh. Almost white with a mirror finish that would blind you if you caught some sun in there!!!!


Honestly all this talk of large amounts of silver bullion is making my mouth water.... Part of my last purchase is on my homepage in a picture. (Be stuffing it with turkey soon friends!)

I think SLV consistently lies about the amount of silver that is in the fund.
Quoting Bootleger
Don't know if it had been post but...

Silver Wars: Eric Sprott to Purchase $1.5 Billion in Physical Silver for Fund.

Eric Sprott has been working and planning this new ETF for a long time, and with silver prices being forced down due to a global liquidity crisis, the time is right for him to strike the physical silver markets with over $1.5 billion dollars in ammunition. The silver wars are about to begin, and the old guard of the markets will unlikely be prepared for the coming battle.

A good interview of him dated from November...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,643
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:43pm Nov 24, 2011 2:43pm
Referencing my last post on this topic (like one or two back) the lines I drew should be fairly self explanatory. And I need to get ready for dinner.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Gold Daily corr.GIF Size: 107 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,644
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:19pm Nov 24, 2011 3:19pm
Here is an Ultra tight correlation.

Gold and Silver = First chart Gold spot / Silver overlay

Second chart (new feature) "Relative to"

Gold = Black / Top line
Silver = Green / Second line
WTI (Oil) = Blue / Third line
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Silver overlay.GIF Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: old silver wti.GIF Size: 70 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #13,645
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:29pm Nov 24, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting XTrade
Here is an Ultra tight correlation.

Gold and Silver = First chart Gold spot / Silver overlay

Second chart (new feature) "Relative to"

Gold = Black / Top line
Silver = Green / Second line
WTI (Oil) = Blue / Third line
Halo X trade...
how to make look like second chart?
is it an indikator ?

thanks
  • #13,646
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:50pm Nov 24, 2011 5:50pm
Kyle Bass... (and an annoying interviewer)



Inserted Video
!
  • #13,647
  • Nov 24, 2011 7:36pm Nov 24, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting Goldmansacks
Kyle Bass... (and an annoying interviewer)


Now if he has something more to say about Gold I would listen.
  • #13,648
  • Nov 24, 2011 10:36pm Nov 24, 2011 10:36pm
Trying to sneak a move lower while few are looking/trading.
  • #13,649
  • Nov 24, 2011 10:43pm Nov 24, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting SunTrader


Now if he has something more to say about Gold I would listen.
What else do you need to hear?

You want him to offer some technical analysis?

He's fairly clear that he thinks that fiat currencies are not the place to be.

At the very least, gold makes an excellent hedge as currencies continue to lose value over the next few years.

Goldman: I agree that the interviewer was a bit annoying, but I think the tension made for a better dialogue. Much better for her to challenge him a bit, even exposing some of her own ignorance, than to have her hold his hand and ask soft ball questions. While she is fairly weak in some aspects of her analysis, credit default swaps remain the most parasitic (recent) addition to the last few decades of unbridled and unsustainable speculation.

I don't care whether this guy is managing pensions or not - this kind of gambling breeds extreme crashes and is a blight on financial stability.
  • #13,650
  • Nov 24, 2011 11:43pm Nov 24, 2011 11:43pm
I have a Question, you may laugh

My question is, in the current scenario, if they start pulling out of gold and silver, where will they be heading, the Dollar, Euro or other currencies? or the Stocks? which one is a better deal for them those who move the markets?
  • #13,651
  • Nov 24, 2011 11:48pm Nov 24, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting forexfacts
I have a Question, you may laugh

My question is, in the current scenario, if they start pulling out of gold and silver, where will they be heading, the Dollar, Euro or other currencies? or the Stocks? which one is a better deal for them those who move the markets?
Another resource perhaps? Rhodium, Palladium? Something rare and valuable.
  • #13,652
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:14am Nov 25, 2011 12:14am
Quoting RitalinFX
Another resource perhaps? Rhodium, Palladium? Something rare and valuable.
ok, but if they have to go to other precious metals, it will be Platinum first in my eyes, then Palladium and Rhodium etc, so yes a possibility to correct the other under-valued precious metals, Thanks for sharing your valuable thought! You have an Investor's eye
  • #13,653
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:56am Nov 25, 2011 12:56am
Kyle Bass actually is in my city, haha! I should try and get a job with his firm (yeah, right)!

I do disagree with him on the end game for the EU. Germany twice tried to take over Europe militarily and failed, this 3rd time they are doing an Economic take over. So I don't see Germany giving up and I do see all of Europe becoming one super state. I think that is the end game.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #13,654
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:04am Nov 25, 2011 1:04am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Kyle Bass actually is in my city, haha! I should try and get a job with his firm (yeah, right)!

I do disagree with him on the end game for the EU. Germany twice tried to take over Europe militarily and failed, this 3rd time they are doing an Economic take over. So I don't see Germany giving up and I do see all of Europe becoming one super state. I think that is the end game.
Agreed
  • #13,655
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:41am Nov 25, 2011 2:41am
It is Bears flag what i see on Daily chart? buma told me.But it totally looks like it will go down.
  • #13,656
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:44am Nov 25, 2011 2:44am
Quoting Ravissek
It is Bears flag what i see on Daily chart? buma told me.But it totally looks like it will go down.
i shorted the euro open managed to get 30+ pips.

dont seem that price just falls like that on the lower timeframes.

dont say 'buma told me'
trust urself, and price, and no one else.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,657
  • Edited 3:03am Nov 25, 2011 2:46am | Edited 3:03am
here it is. normal scalp nothing special. price stalling at support, no bull signals, i sold, tp at demand zone

ADD: missed the bigger bang down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yea gold.gif Size: 12 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,658
  • Nov 25, 2011 4:52am Nov 25, 2011 4:52am
is time to buy ? (xau usd)
  • #13,659
  • Nov 25, 2011 4:56am Nov 25, 2011 4:56am
Quoting Wheels
What else do you need to hear?

You want him to offer some technical analysis?

He's fairly clear that he thinks that fiat currencies are not the place to be.

At the very least, gold makes an excellent hedge as currencies continue to lose value over the next few years.

Goldman: I agree that the interviewer was a bit annoying, but I think the tension made for a better dialogue. Much better for her to challenge him a bit, even exposing some of her own ignorance, than to have her hold his hand and ask soft ball questions. While she is...

I agree about the gambling bit....


but (I have no shame it seems) did you know you can now as a retail customer buy into an equivalent of a CDS? you can buy into something called a Credit Event Binary Option, whereby you can for example at the moment open a contract for $1,000 , expiry for say December 2013, based on Bank of America having a "Credit event" between now and Dec 2013, and yeah it pays out $100,000 if it happens.... $0 if it does not, but not a bad punt in my opinion... I am just in the process of talking to the brokers who are providing this and seeing if being bailed out will count as a credit event... (BAC = TBTF etc) and yes I know it is part of the problem, and I am not overly proud, but $100,000 on a $1,000 punt would be a great boost to the trading fund if it paid out- and at the moment it seems to me that BAC are on deathwatch..

just a thought.

(sorry to be off topic)
(sorry to be morally defunct)
  • #13,660
  • Nov 25, 2011 4:56am Nov 25, 2011 4:56am
i got stopped out overnight on my longs. so -12 pips down. grrrr....

its a sea of red across all markets folks. i sea we are in crisis.
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