Attachments: Bearish Gold thread / Bubble implode thread

Bearish Gold thread / Bubble implode thread

#21
Nov 1, 2011 7:23am Nov 1, 2011 7:23am

hkc_645
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 11 Posts

Quoting 7bit

Disliked

I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

Ignored

THANX A LOT SIR

#22
Nov 1, 2011 7:36am Nov 1, 2011 7:36am

fawaol
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: insighter | 268 Posts

Quoting 7bit

Disliked

I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

Ignored

I'm with you, 7bit

#23
Nov 1, 2011 9:21pm Nov 1, 2011 9:21pm

Goldmansacks
| Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 112 Posts

Quoting 7bit

Disliked

I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

Ignored

Hi... I am interested in your reasoning? could you please share.

thanks

#24
Nov 21, 2011 5:22am Nov 21, 2011 5:22am

fawaol
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: insighter | 268 Posts

Weekly.....what u think on that??

Gold formed descending triangle the same scale

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: agdownchannel.jpg
Size: 73 KB

#25
Nov 22, 2011 8:41am Nov 22, 2011 8:41am

forexcolibri
| Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

for gold, it is interesting to have a look at the log chart. There we see a nice long term (from 2009) support line. Indeed, from the top, we went down impulsively, and the upmove that we have been seeing since then, looks rather corrective. But, personally, I would only go short if we see a break below the support line, i.e. below 1580. If that happens, the next target on the way down would be 1270 (stop loss slightly above the support line after the break).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: gold.jpg
Size: 62 KB

#26
Nov 23, 2011 6:27am Nov 23, 2011 6:27am

fawaol
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: insighter | 268 Posts

Quoting forexcolibri

Disliked

for gold, it is interesting to have a look at the log chart. There we see a nice long term (from 2009) support line. Indeed, from the top, we went down impulsively, and the upmove that we have been seeing since then, looks rather corrective. But, personally, I would only go short if we see a break below the support line, i.e. below 1580. If that happens, the next target on the way down would be 1270 (stop loss slightly above the support line after the break).

Ignored

Nice pic. What software you used to build it???

#27
Nov 23, 2011 9:13am Nov 23, 2011 9:13am

forexcolibri
| Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

it's a bloomberg chart, for the moment, i am still lucky to work as an analyst for a bank, probably for the last months, so more and more, I am looking for other (read cheaper or free of cost) systems to follow the markets. The metatrader platform seems okay to me, so I am experimenting more and more with it. The nice thing about it, is that I can follow the fx in direct for free :-)

#28
Nov 26, 2011 12:13am Nov 26, 2011 12:13am

FXQuantBoy
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-mathematically.html

Quote

Disliked

A paper published this month in the SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics addresses just this issue. Opening fittingly with a quote from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley emphasizing the importance of developing tools to identify and address bubbles in real time, authors Robert Jarrow, Younes Kchia, and Philip Protter propose a mathematical model to detect financial bubbles.

Quote

Disliked

The key characteristic in determining a bubble is the volatility of an asset's price, which, in the case of bubbles is very high. The authors estimate the volatility by applying state of the art estimators to real-time tick price data for a given stock. They then obtain the best possible extension of this data for large values using a technique called Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), which is a widely used method for statistical learning.

Quote

Disliked

The authors have also used the model to test more recent price increases to detect bubbles. "We have found, for example, that the IPO [initial public offering] of LinkedIn underwent bubble pricing at its debut, and that the recent rise in gold prices was not a bubble, according to our models," Protter says.

#29
Dec 29, 2011 10:49am Dec 29, 2011 10:49am

7bit
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,231 Posts

This pattern extends to at least 1290 (161%, my usual target for these kinds of patterns) and when doing the 200% extension (happens quite often) it would reach as low as 1140!

My bet is: Gold will reach 1140.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: 2011-12-29-173653_733x463_scrot.png
Size: 40 KB

#30
Dec 31, 2011 10:06pm Dec 31, 2011 10:06pm

krunfx
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Carry Trader that not want interest | 2,016 Posts

Im very bearish on gold at least 1500 n more..and soros comment recently as a catalyst for the downward..

Bismillah

#31
Aug 6, 2012 7:14am Aug 6, 2012 7:14am

cheagil
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: use your head man!!!! | 215 Posts

why this thread is dead? in fact most of the gold threads are dead.

#32
Aug 6, 2012 3:07pm Aug 6, 2012 3:07pm

Rknigh2
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 162 Posts

Quoting cheagil

Disliked

why this thread is dead? in fact most of the gold threads are dead.

Ignored

The 1540 floor is scaring off all the bears

#33
Aug 6, 2012 8:59pm Aug 6, 2012 8:59pm

XTrade
Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts

I invite you to my thread. It is in my sig.

This thread is dead because for over 10 years gold has been rising in a specific technical way.

Even when there is substantial pullback or BEARISH movement. it is only due to or a reaction to a massive upward swing.

The bears are toast right now, yet the bulls have a lot to prove so it is a push and we move sideways.

The ultimate yearly 12/13 target I discuss is 2150.

Quoting cheagil

Disliked

why this thread is dead? in fact most of the gold threads are dead.

Ignored

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News

#34
Aug 7, 2012 12:39am Aug 7, 2012 12:39am

cheagil
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: use your head man!!!! | 215 Posts

Quoting XTrade

Disliked

I invite you to my thread. It is in my sig.

This thread is dead because for over 10 years gold has been rising in a specific technical way.

Even when there is substantial pullback or BEARISH movement. it is only due to or a reaction to a massive upward swing.

The bears are toast right now, yet the bulls have a lot to prove so it is a push and we move sideways.

The ultimate yearly 12/13 target I discuss is 2150.

Ignored

thanks mate.

#35
Aug 13, 2012 3:22am Aug 13, 2012 3:22am

starise
| Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

Bearish Gold Thread or Bubble implode thread......may be the thread has been suspended now or it has been quilted

#36
Apr 16, 2013 7:31am Apr 16, 2013 7:31am

SunTrader
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts

Thread was ahead of its time.

#37
Jun 20, 2013 4:59am Jun 20, 2013 4:59am

7bit
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,231 Posts

Quoting 7bit

Disliked

This pattern extends to at least 1290

Ignored

strike!

#38
Jun 20, 2013 5:15am Jun 20, 2013 5:15am

sam2vt
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 211 Posts

Quoting 7bit

Disliked

This pattern extends to at least 1290 (161%, my usual target for these kinds of patterns) and when doing the 200% extension (happens quite often) it would reach as low as 1140! My bet is: Gold will reach 1140. {image}

Ignored

1140 is the lowest? Will it go lower? After 1140 what will b the next in your opinion?