Bearish Gold thread / Bubble implode thread

This thread is here to enjoy and celebrate the downhill race on the eastern slope of Gold Bubble Peaks.

Most of the other Gold threads here are filled with strong bulls, there needs to be a counterpart, a place where the bears can share their opinion. Silver bears are welcome too.

Bubble behavior is IMHO the only fundamental that can be applied here and other influences like slow continuous FIAT money inflation are smaller by orders of magnitude and not relevant anymore, so I am trading it purely technical and only waiting for the final trigger. The Gold bulls are very nervous and irritable already. They used to laugh at the Gold bubble callers but now they tend to react annoyed or angry when they hear about bearish opinions, this itself could be interpreted as a bearish signal.

For silver I am even more short-term bearish, I expect it to go down to the $20s soon, even before Gold will finally collapse (again look at a logarithmic longterm chart, this is not far away from where it is now and would not even require the current monthly trend (bubble) to change) and I expect the gold silver ratio to make a huge move upwards (ascending triangle breakout soon)!

If your sentiment is perma-bullish then please try to not post here (or at least not call me stupid), this is a heretical thread, the inquisition with their dogma is not welcome

Hey 7bit... goodluck convincing the herd that they will get slaughtered

One possible scenario is that gold will return to some ascending channel.
Similar way as silver did during last 4 months.

For the near term I expect

I spent the Sunday meditating over the possible moves that are in *immediate* reach on the silver chart. Especially in the light of a suddenly exploding US dollar (Liquidity crisis, carry unwinding, bubble bursting everywhere, etc).

Plotting the silver price into a semi-log chart seems to give a much less distorted view of how Silver has been moving during the last decade, where it is relative to its current trend and why $20 seems like a totally reasonable target for the not so distant future!



I have also attached the .svg file of this drawing if you don't have easy access to a log chart and want to play around with the lines and channels yourself.

There's a confluence of resistance on the weekly silver chart around 43.75. As you can see on the chart, this is the 7/8 murrey math octave. You also have overhead channel resistance. But I would want to see RSI dip at least below 50 before committing a big short position at the current level. Right now I'm showing RSI=58. Who knows, that could happen very early in the week, in which case I'm a convinced bear.

The right half of this chart looks like a descending triangle to me. Due to its size it has the potential to send us to 1700, maybe already this week.

What a great trading day today! Everything is moving exactly as expected! I hope you all have equally much fun as I have today!

Around 1700 I expect a bounce and the formation of the right shoulder (the entire H&S would then have a height of more than 200$ and be able to send Gold to 1500$)

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs gets slaughtered".

GORDON GEKKO. Wall Street 2.

Will you post your trades?

I will watch intently to see whether any of you get caught off-guard.

Once shorts are unwound, buying pressure will resume. Watch out.

I will close my shorts today and take my profit and will wait a few weeks. Until then you won't hear much from me. I expect some angry bulls just below where it is now (above 1700) and I don't want to get into their way. I am not trying to squeeze out the last few pips before Gold technically hits the support above around 1700.

Silver should also make a significant bounce at around 34.

Other people will buy Gold there and once again predict absurd prices for the end of the year, I won't. I will patiently sit on the sidelines for a while now and wait for my next short.

sir any update in gold ??????

gold retest of ~1700, then short again
silver retest of ~32 then short again

of course it could also continue further down without retesting these levels, the bears are strong.

Sir any idea abt crude oil please

I have better targets for Gold and Silver now:

Gold: 1720
Silver: 35

These are the 50% retracements and the 200% expansions of the reversal patterns (both are the same, almost to the pip exact)

I think it is a good idea to exit *all* your remaining longs at exactly these levels, sell *all* your physical (or hedge it with shorts from there until you can find a buyer) and from then on trade only short.

@hkc_645: Sorry, I don't trade oil.

I'm still waiting for the above numbers, nothing has changed technically.

LOL.

Nice counter thread! Good addition.

So what are your reasons for Gold being a bubble?

I'd think the recent correction should serve as enough proof we are not in a bubble here.

Gold/ Tangible. Valuable. Sought after. Safe haven. Tradeable daily with great range now. ETC> ETC.

Let's here some valid arguments....

(BTW: counter party opinions should be welcome in all threads thats what makes a market.)

But nonetheless. Vent against the 10+ year uptrend. Bubble or not>>>???

Let's hear it.

That quote was legendary...

Long term I'm bearish on Gold (and silver) but I think we've got a few more months and maybe more of good gains before a longer term correction.

sir now can we go for short at cmp ?
1745

I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).