Bearish Gold thread / Bubble implode thread

Quoting 7bit

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I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

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Quoting 7bit

Disliked

I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

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Quoting 7bit

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I think its time now.

Silver: Target 20.00$, stop 35.70$
Gold: probably similar (exit gold short when silver hits the target (probably at 1400), stop 1755).

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Quoting forexcolibri

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for gold, it is interesting to have a look at the log chart. There we see a nice long term (from 2009) support line. Indeed, from the top, we went down impulsively, and the upmove that we have been seeing since then, looks rather corrective. But, personally, I would only go short if we see a break below the support line, i.e. below 1580. If that happens, the next target on the way down would be 1270 (stop loss slightly above the support line after the break).

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A paper published this month in the SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics addresses just this issue. Opening fittingly with a quote from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley emphasizing the importance of developing tools to identify and address bubbles in real time, authors Robert Jarrow, Younes Kchia, and Philip Protter propose a mathematical model to detect financial bubbles.

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The key characteristic in determining a bubble is the volatility of an asset's price, which, in the case of bubbles is very high. The authors estimate the volatility by applying state of the art estimators to real-time tick price data for a given stock. They then obtain the best possible extension of this data for large values using a technique called Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), which is a widely used method for statistical learning.

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The authors have also used the model to test more recent price increases to detect bubbles. "We have found, for example, that the IPO [initial public offering] of LinkedIn underwent bubble pricing at its debut, and that the recent rise in gold prices was not a bubble, according to our models," Protter says.

Quoting cheagil

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why this thread is dead? in fact most of the gold threads are dead.

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Quoting cheagil

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why this thread is dead? in fact most of the gold threads are dead.

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Quoting XTrade

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I invite you to my thread. It is in my sig.


This thread is dead because for over 10 years gold has been rising in a specific technical way.

Even when there is substantial pullback or BEARISH movement. it is only due to or a reaction to a massive upward swing.

The bears are toast right now, yet the bulls have a lot to prove so it is a push and we move sideways.

The ultimate yearly 12/13 target I discuss is 2150.

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Quoting 7bit

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This pattern extends to at least 1290

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Quoting 7bit

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This pattern extends to at least 1290 (161%, my usual target for these kinds of patterns) and when doing the 200% extension (happens quite often) it would reach as low as 1140! My bet is: Gold will reach 1140. {image}

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Quoting sam2vt

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{quote} 1140 is the lowest? Will it go lower? After 1140 what will b the next in your opinion?

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Quoting 7bit

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{quote} strike!

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