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  • #12,601
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:56am Oct 27, 2011 9:56am
Quoting dogbreath
opened a buy at 1728.....looking for resistance and close at around 1750
Same here, looking for $35 XAG as well
Anything can happen.
  • #12,602
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:15am Oct 27, 2011 10:15am
Quoting forexfacts
..........My question is, if there existed Only physical buying and selling what would be the price of gold at present?
Well what if the same were true for commodities that we can actually use for something besides admiring.

Like foodstuffs (wheat, corn, sugar) or energy (Oil, Nat Gas, etc).
  • #12,603
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:22am Oct 27, 2011 10:22am
Quoting SunTrader
Well what if the same were true for commodities that we can actually use for something besides admiring.

Like foodstuffs (wheat, corn, sugar) or energy (Oil, Nat Gas, etc).
Therein lies the conflict.

We're all probably happy (whether we know it or not) a lid has been held on food commodities since the last run up.

That said, derivatives markets will need new regulations eventually.

The current scheme is somewhat out of whack.

Don't think gold/silver should be traded the same way that food and oil are.

It's annoying that people assume this is the way it's always been. It is absolutely not. Futures hedging used to be primarily insurance for farmers in case they had a bad year (*price wise). If price goes down, they profit from selling, if it goes up, they earn more from their produce.

Now it's a paper money playground for people who want to trade non-existing assets (silver that won't be produced until next year, for example).
  • #12,604
  • Edited 11:51am Oct 27, 2011 11:37am | Edited 11:51am
SunTrader,

Talking about other commodities, i have some idea of wheat, rice and cotton as i myself am a farmer, that their trading prices are fairly aligned with their actual prices based upon demand and supply.

But when i talk about gold, India's season (300 - 400 ton consumption) this has nothing to do with gold's trading price? why is that? it shouldn't be like that otherwise it is nothing but gambling.

As i have said before, people in India are buying physical at 30,000 Indian rupees per Tola happily, that must have some effect on gold's trading price, or not?

Suppose there was No consumption / No season, gold was being bought for Trading only, would the price still be the same?

In simple words, billions and trillions of gold is traded because people know that it will be consumed, some will buy it for jewellery and some will buy it as a safe haven, some will buy it as an instrument against inflation.

But again, there is a big game of speculation involved in precious metals which makes it unstable sometimes, specially the times we are going through right now, there is no clear direction, but still we can speculate that it is going close to 2000.
  • #12,605
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:54pm Oct 27, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting forexfacts
.... But again, there is a big game of speculation involved in precious metals ..........
I agree ..... to a degree.

It is all relative. Everything that is traded whether or not a hard asset or financial instrument is subject to speculation and sometimes that speculation gets out of hand.

Otherwise just buy whatever it is and hold it till you need it. But that doesn't work to well with grains and crude and copper. Therefore the need for a futures market.

But no one has a gun to their head to trade. If you do there are rules to the "game". Don't like it, don't trade. Fairly simple to me.

Then there are forums like FF to air grievances.

As I have said before, I can find better use of my time.

As far as Gold buying in India, of course it has an effect. Just not as big as some think.
  • #12,606
  • Oct 27, 2011 1:03pm Oct 27, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting forexfacts
SunTrader,

But again, there is a big game of speculation involved in precious metals which makes it unstable sometimes, specially the times we are going through right now, there is no clear direction, but still we can speculate that it is going close to 2000.
Stay critical forexfacts. We can catch marketplace crooks redhanded if we are vigilant and critical.

Madoff's scheme only worked because people failed to be diligent in critical thought.

You are right to question price movement of gold and silver. GATA and Eric Sprott (who is a billionaire) can be deemed frauds, but I think not.

Derivatives trading will not last as is indefinitely. Changes are on the way (eventually). Best to be critical and cognizant.

India's buying season does have an influence, but the paper market is gargantuan.

What is interesting to me is the consensus among the big boys that forms about price action, that is explained after-the-fact by Reuters or Bloomberg. Somehow someone somewhere is in cahoots. Until we are trading in a transparent market, we need to remain vigilant and critical.

This is an excellent use of one's time. Unless you would rather watch reality television.
  • #12,607
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:18pm Oct 27, 2011 5:18pm
I would greatly appreciate if anyone could explain the fundamentals on gold going up today... with the markets doing so well, and gold behaving these past 2 days as safe haven again, how come after the news from eurozone gold went up like this? I would have expected a drop
  • #12,608
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:20pm Oct 27, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting GoldenDude
I would greatly appreciate if anyone could explain the fundamentals on gold going up today... with the markets doing so well, and gold behaving these past 2 days as safe haven again, how come after the news from eurozone gold went up like this? I would have expected a drop
It's a bull market you know.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #12,609
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:23pm Oct 27, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting GoldenDude
I would greatly appreciate if anyone could explain the fundamentals on gold going up today... with the markets doing so well, and gold behaving these past 2 days as safe haven again, how come after the news from eurozone gold went up like this? I would have expected a drop
It is a fundamentally paper market.

Sorry - bad joke - I obviously don't really know what forces are behind this.

Reuters says euro is up on the deal, dollar is down relative to the euro (more or less), and this pushed up commodity prices.

Not sure instability caused gold price to rise so much as the lower dollar helping to firm up the previous rise. Makes sense given commodities are often (mostly?) traded in USD.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...78M11C20111027

Does anyone with more experience and knowledge have an idea of what is going on?
  • #12,610
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:33pm Oct 27, 2011 5:33pm
im bullish in the long run, but this took me by surprise

[ of course, we all get surprises all the time or we would be filthy rich ]

thing is i still cant find a reasonable explanation

i know USDX is lower, but not that much to justify a 100 USD raise in 3 days!
  • #12,611
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:36pm Oct 27, 2011 5:36pm
I'll tell you one thing - sharks are out. Waiting for us fishies to slip up.
  • #12,612
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:40pm Oct 27, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting Wheels
I'll tell you one thing - sharks are out. Waiting for us fishies to slip up.
sometimes i think im a bit paranoid thinking about conspiracies, but when i see things like today i rethink about it

now i wonder if a big drop is coming just like that

EDIT: and not only XAU, did you see stock markets today? I mean, are you serious!? Does the outcome of the eurosummit look like this???
  • #12,613
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:47pm Oct 27, 2011 5:47pm
I doubt it. Only because it would help my position.

I almost expect some kind of spike to take out my buy stop above.

Would LOVE to catch one of those rain fall drops ($50+) without being hedged some day.

I do wonder if it is possible (for me) at times.
  • #12,614
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:49pm Oct 27, 2011 5:49pm
What conspiracy theory? Where is my tin hat? Don't want them reading my mind.
  • #12,615
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:51pm Oct 27, 2011 5:51pm
would you say you re 100% sure there is no market manipulation?
  • #12,616
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:02pm Oct 27, 2011 6:02pm
Are you asking me?

I'm 100% sure there is some form of market manipulation.

The extent and exactly how it goes down is in the air.

The incredible capacity of the market to go against my trades since August's shift is mind boggling.

I don't over-leverage, so it is not the end of the world.

But again - I fail to catch a move back down and the market is moving against my trade. You have to admit it is uncanny.
  • #12,617
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:03pm Oct 27, 2011 6:03pm
US Dollar is really bearish, got beaten up... watch out !! And QE3 soon...
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #12,618
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:06pm Oct 27, 2011 6:06pm
I want to find someone who will take the exact inverse of my positions as an experiment.

The idea of at least one person beating the market is preferable to no one.

  • #12,619
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:19pm Oct 27, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting Bootleger
US Dollar is really bearish, got beaten up... watch out !! And QE3 soon...
What this means? A retrace for gold and dolar could happen anytime soon? How QE3 may impact the Gold?
  • #12,620
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:21pm Oct 27, 2011 6:21pm
Ahh, almost 1750 gold N 35 usd sILVER.

There is still time to get long

Cable
AUD
NZD

Short
USD.CAD
USD.CHF

Euro PA suggests long but I will leave that up to you.

Aussie had a 300 pip Bull day! See it does work both ways!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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