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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #12,501
  • Oct 25, 2011 12:11pm Oct 25, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting ddinnov
What's wrong with demo accounts? You want to learn to trade risking real money?

I think that's sad
With demo acc you will learn to risk and trade demo money.LOL.
Demos are for pussies
  • #12,502
  • Oct 25, 2011 12:18pm Oct 25, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting ddinnov
<conspiracy theory>I wonder if they're pushing it up in preparation for a massive short tomorrow...</conspiracy theory>
Not sure when the bears will come out, but price very rarely rises by this much without a downward swipe.

Maybe they are focusing on the yen...
  • #12,503
  • Oct 25, 2011 12:33pm Oct 25, 2011 12:33pm
i am going short from 1700
i just dont see this move as 'real', especially at the time of US markets
  • #12,504
  • Oct 25, 2011 12:36pm Oct 25, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting GoldenDude
i am going short from 1700
i just dont see this move as 'real', especially at the time of US markets
good choice when you want to give me your money.Thanks
  • #12,505
  • Oct 25, 2011 12:52pm Oct 25, 2011 12:52pm
...it does have to eventually turn downward, if only for a moment.

Perhaps 1693, a $10 correction, will be the extent and we are on the way to $2500. I'm not so sure this will be the case. PA will need a pit stop or the next correction will be even more violent.

I personally have yet to give up on that approx. $100 range of the bullish channel. It would top out at $1706 according to my forecast. We are basically at the top.

If gold starts flying sky high, then I will be worried that speculation will run rampant. I much like this fairly predictable channel. Let's hope it holds so that gold can continue onward and upward with regular corrections rather than MASSIVE drops that occur when we least expect them (ex: when you have to be somewhere apart from your computer station).
  • #12,506
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:22pm Oct 25, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting GoldenDude
i am going short from 1700
i just dont see this move as 'real', especially at the time of US markets
Would you elaborate on your analysis about US markets?
  • #12,507
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:25pm Oct 25, 2011 1:25pm
Let's look at gold more holistically here.

1) Backwardation of WTI crude, meaning front month contract higher than later months suggesting a real supply squeeze not paper generated moves.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/1...79O0T720111025

2) See the CRB index of which gold is a significant part.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crb.png Size: 56 KB


From this, would not want to short gold until CRB breaks 315 area, before this you are gambling i am long indefinately from 1695..
  • #12,508
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:30pm Oct 25, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting Ravissek
good choice when you want to give me your money.Thanks
Don't jump the gun, this thing has some new momentum...patience is a virtue on days like this.
  • #12,509
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:31pm Oct 25, 2011 1:31pm
1706 now, they are pumping it more and more before they come out, making the 95% more poorer, am i right?
  • #12,510
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:34pm Oct 25, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting ddinnov
anyone long from 1700?
Mine is $1680 with SL @ 1640, and now closed @ 1703. No more posts and still waiting for price to touch 61% fibo before entering short.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-usd 61.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #12,511
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:36pm Oct 25, 2011 1:36pm
I'm not sure 95% of anyone owns or trades gold.

They are pumping it up alright.

Seems one should always do the opposite of what one expects.
  • #12,512
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:40pm Oct 25, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
Let's look at gold more holistically here.

1) Backwardation of WTI crude, meaning front month contract higher than later months suggesting a real supply squeeze not paper generated moves.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/1...79O0T720111025

2) See the CRB index of which gold is a significant part.

Attachment

From this, would not want to short gold until CRB breaks 315 area, before this you are gambling i am long indefinately from 1695..
THIS IS ALWAYS GAMBLING! Even the best of the best admit that this is a game of educated gambling. The market can always turn.

The winners limit their losses.
  • #12,513
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:43pm Oct 25, 2011 1:43pm
But straight line upwards on the graph should ring a few bells, its not all right to me.

95% loose in trading, i read it on this forum, is it correct or just a hoax ?
  • #12,514
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:52pm Oct 25, 2011 1:52pm
Oh yes - now I understand.

This paper game is always exceptionally dangerous unless you use minimal leverage.

The spot price movements are not transparent for the 95% so we are at a disadvantage. (Counter-parties and liquidity providers trading against us can see OUR positions on a screen.)

Long or short, price action will test your resolve.

Trading with money you can afford to lose reduces emotion, but using minimal leverage is even better.

I think you could be right about this being a tease to draw in weak bulls. At the same time, I think price action is really reflective of players with real time information about volume, liquidity, AND weak positions, who will move price to maximize their gain.

This upward move is strong. This could in fact be a significant break out.
  • #12,515
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:16pm Oct 25, 2011 2:16pm
Yes, gold has to see $2000 mark, but not in vertical lines, like the one we saw today, this was a set up, not the work of small traders.

And i forgot to add, gold won't stay at 2000 for long, most probably it may come back and stabilize at 1600 or 1800 i dont know frankly, we have seen what they did to Silver from $17 to $51, and now at $32.

(Readers: do not take my words and follow me, i am not a trader, have zero experience in gold trading, i just watch prices for some years now, thats all)
  • #12,516
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:22pm Oct 25, 2011 2:22pm
But then again why do i always forget the ailing Dollar and the Euro, the Indian demand, those are real world factors and cannot be ignored.
  • #12,517
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:34pm Oct 25, 2011 2:34pm
I see it turning back from 1720-1730 if it doesn't then 1770-80 next resistance
  • #12,518
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:35pm Oct 25, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting forexfacts
But then again why do i always forget the ailing Dollar and the Euro, the Indian demand, those are real world factors and cannot be ignored.
The problem is that previous correlations have been eroded.

No real reason why gold should shoot to the moon today so I think your skepticism is warranted.

That said, one cannot logically predict anything in a market run by <conspiracy> banksters </end conspiracy>.

Price action is dominated by a small core of interconnected banks and hedge funds. They sit on each others' boards and they invest in each others' businesses. Manipulation and insider trading may not even be intentional. Just an inevitable side effect of social clustering in the corporate world.

This study is worth noting:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/...the-world.html

We just need a mole from this forum to expose why they haven't enabled us gold traders here at Forex Factory to make billions yet.
  • #12,519
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:38pm Oct 25, 2011 2:38pm
Ha! I LOVE IT!

Well said Wheels.







Quoting Wheels
The problem is that previous correlations have been eroded.

No real reason why gold should shoot to the moon today so I think your skepticism is warranted.

That said, one cannot logically predict anything in a market run by <conspiracy> banksters </end conspiracy>.

Price action is dominated by a small core of interconnected banks and hedge funds. They sit on each others' boards and they invest in each others' businesses. Manipulation and insider trading may not even be intentional. Just an inevitable side effect of social clustering...
  • #12,520
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:50pm Oct 25, 2011 2:50pm
Watching to see if it breaks and holds 1705, if not I feel that maybe a little whipsaw action..
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