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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #11,341
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:19pm Sep 29, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting SunTrader
And how about the puppy pet shop?

Rav, just kidding. Markets are boring at the moment.

Getting ready though.
Yea.I write on the forum when i am bored
  • #11,342
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:21pm Sep 29, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Wheels
........ I may be wrong............
I agree. The rest not so much though.
  • #11,343
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:23pm Sep 29, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
Well, one thing is sure, it's can't go SOUTH to the infinite, there is a limit.
True all commodities whether they are speculative or not have limits.

Gold does serve its purpose but it does have to correct exceeses too.

Try spending it in a store - whether or not the world comes tumbling down.
  • #11,344
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:42pm Sep 29, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
I agree. The rest not so much though.
Solid argument.

I really like the point about...oh yeah, you still have no actual arguments.

Follow the charts as you will.

I will stick with long term trading strategies and watch for developments on the paper manipulation front.

My prediction- you eventually lose your money or withdraw what remains of your trading balance after repeated losses.

Nothing about you as an individual, just a statistical probability that short term traders lose in the long run.
  • #11,345
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:51pm Sep 29, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Wheels
... Nothing about you as an individual, just a statistical probability that short term traders lose in the long run.
The statistics I have seen in the 15 years I have been t r a d i n g (notice I didn't join the forum last month) refer to traders - not short term traders or long term traders - but t r a d e r s.

But traders of whatever kind, technical/fundamental or a combination do not look elsewhere for their failures. Not from their broker/TV talking heads/news headlines/wall street bogeymen/government under or over regulation or men in tin foil hats.
  • #11,346
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:21pm Sep 29, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting SunTrader
The statistics I have seen in the 15 years I have been t r a d i n g (notice I didn't join the forum last month) refer to traders - not short term traders or long term traders - but t r a d e r s.

But traders of whatever kind, technical/fundamental or a combination do not look elsewhere for their failures. Not from their broker/TV talking heads/news headlines/wall street bogeymen/government under or over regulation or men in tin foil hats.
I have met a lot of "traders" who have been around for a long time. Some successful, many barely paying themselves for the time they invest.

Those who are successful are value traders/investors.

Value is determined by a basic set of calculations that undeniably include supply and demand.

Aside from this, there is a lot of noise in the media about where the price will or should go in a variety of markets. Sometimes this leads to bubbles, and sometimes panic sells seem to occur. Downplaying the rumour mill effect shows your 15 years have not taught you much. (Or is it that you just want to win a meaningless debate at all costs?)

My broker did not cause a price freeze - if you recall I was clear about this once the problem had been identified. They were kind enough to credit my account and nullify a position after a clearly unfortunate set of circumstances.

No one knows anything about your success or failures, but keeping it a secret is your business. I have been transparent and honest, but feel free to attack me for such dreadful failings.

While I do not believe in bogeymen, I do have a fairly reasonable assessment of how markets function in a fiat, paper-based, environment. I think you do as well, but are refusing to see the light on the gold/silver question. All told, if you really have faith that markets operate in a fair, transparent way, then I think you need to return to planet Earth. Perhaps you are the conspiracy theorist. Have you read The Big Short, watched The Inside Job, or even read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham?

When it does come to light that paper trades (naked shorts and over-leveraged longs) are disconnected from the physical market, this will have an impact. This issue can only be suppressed for so long, but there is a lot of populist resentment in the world for crooked financial institutions that can be channeled successfully.

The paper trade manipulation of PM is the perfect catalyst. While keeping a lid on certain commodity prices (especially food) can be justified in some circumstances, quantified evidence of price manipulation in the PM futures market may yet be able to make real waves.

So - feel free to sit at the sidelines and read your little charts, but I choose to call these markets for what they are: rife with corruption and insider manipulation.

History will tell whether people like me are tin-hat wearing conspiracy theorists who are spinning our wheels, but I think taking a communications strategy to the mainstream may eventually have a successful impact.

So - Mr. Success, who spends his day chatting on a forum with newbies, watching them lose their money in the vast majority of cases, tell me why you aren't doing better things with your time?

After 15 years of success, I figure you would have a major business, endowment fund, or significant trust to manage.

Obviously, your chart-based price forecasts have brought you riches; because this is a fair and transparent market where past price action predicts the future, right?

  • #11,347
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:21pm Sep 29, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Wheels
It has all the value in the world, if assessed reasonably with attention given to other relevant factors.

What makes me laugh, are the countless numbers of people who believe "their" chart system is going to beat the market.

Just like people who get caught in a speculative bubble that is about to correct, these people are bound to lose their account balances.

If this were a realistic conversation, you would quickly admit that price action is determined by major paper traders in the short term and that the long-term is fairly unpredictable...
So long to read it
  • #11,348
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:05pm Sep 29, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting Wheels
This is the worst analysis I have yet to come across on this entire forum.

Technical indicators are statistically insignificant due to the unpredictable nature of the paper trade and fundamental factors.

Otherwise, we'd have a lot more math professors quitting their day jobs and becoming ridiculously wealthy.

I'm all for you people who claim to "follow" price action, but any notion that technical indicators can predict future price is absolute rubbish.

As I said, if it were that easy, a basic course in statistics would prepare...
i agree no doubt a piece of shit
  • #11,349
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:29pm Sep 29, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting Wheels
What makes me laugh, are the countless numbers of people who believe "their" chart system is going to beat the market.
If you look at the Market Wizards they all have their own way looking at things. So in a sense it is exactly the fact that people believe in their own charts / way of trading that makes them beat the market (their edge that works for them).
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #11,350
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:59pm Sep 29, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
If you look at the Market Wizards they all have their own way looking at things. So in a sense it is exactly the fact that people believe in their own charts / way of trading that makes them beat the market (their edge that works for them).
Maybe this is the case, but statistically, they are probably going to fail if they follow their system religiously. Chart systems fail just like any other strategy.

If there was a system that stood the test of time and functioned in all market conditions, then we'd have a Warren Buffett of the forex. The closest comparison might be Soros, but guys like George Soros can literally move markets by the sheer volume in their trades.

I'm all for people doing what works for themselves, but am getting irritated by the fact that there is no respect for a difference of opinion, ongoing ridicule, and baseless arguments that factors apart from price action are relevant.

Naysayers continue to naysay until proven wrong. Then they find something else to naysay and bicker about.

I can respect others' opinions about charts being first and foremost. I have explained why I disagree. The response telling me I am wrong is without evidence or analysis gets boring. The negativity toward other traders is needless.
  • #11,351
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:13pm Sep 29, 2011 3:13pm
I thought this thread was about trading gold and silver, not peoples' 'feelings'.
http://imagemacros.files.wordpress.c...pg?w=639&h=480
  • #11,352
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:24pm Sep 29, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting BrotherPyrus
I thought this thread was about trading gold and silver, not peoples' 'feelings'.
http://imagemacros.files.wordpress.c...pg?w=639&h=480
It should be a rational discussion about price action based on quantified evidence.

Focusing exclusively on statistically insignificant chart systems because someone draws pretty little triangles is irrational.

Gold and silver are not bubbles, and people should trade cognizant of the eventual probability that price will rise.

It seems some are hell-bent on scaring people out of taking or maintaing hedged longs.
  • #11,353
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:27pm Sep 29, 2011 3:27pm
possible gartley silver.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag_usd_m30.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #11,354
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:40pm Sep 29, 2011 3:40pm
In my opinion, the gap between gold and silver will keep on rising, until and unless they start using Silver for what it is meant for, Silver = Money.

True form of money, no paper its Silver!

When dollar fails taking other currencies with it, we may see silver rising to its original value which was 1/7th of gold in the old times, until then it is good for Industrial use

By the way i was looking at the production side of both gold and silver, silver is around 20,000 tonnes and gold is 2,000 tonnes, which makes the price of Silver 1/10th of gold, Only if the Demand is same
  • #11,355
  • Sep 29, 2011 3:59pm Sep 29, 2011 3:59pm
@ Wheels and Suntrader,

You both are regular contributors to this forum. I do not know or care for that matter if you "like" one-another or not.

What I do know is your recent banter is wasting a lot of space and is in effect
off topic.

I do not wish to see either of you stop posting here but do kindly ask you to

A. Create a thread to argue your topic.
B. PM eachother and work it out.

I think this is a fair deal.

Thanks.
XTrade
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #11,356
  • Sep 29, 2011 4:03pm Sep 29, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting Wheels
......So - feel free to sit at the sidelines and read your little charts ......
... and trade while you make sure the markets are "fair".

When I go to a ballgame and the ump/referee screws up I let him know, as does most people with a set of . You probably write a letter to the commissioner.

I see by each one of your posts are getting longer and longer. That is how you spend your time.

Different strokes ...
  • #11,357
  • Sep 29, 2011 4:13pm Sep 29, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting XTrade
A. Create a thread to argue your topic.
B. PM eachother and work it out.

I think this is a fair deal.
I agree but prefer to select C.

Which is what I mentioned some time ago to wheels that we each ignore the other. It is now in effect on my part.

Although I respect his opinion, however much I don't agree with it, he seems to think I have it in for anybody who wants to go long gold. No, only those who want to blindly go long Gold.

But be that as it may I won't bother any of those types anymore as well.

For the future I will talk, as I have, markets with charts etc and a sprinkle of fundis and ignore all the rest such as: 95% that gold will go higher, buy now because Gold is always in a bull, it is way-undervalued blah blah blah.
  • #11,358
  • Sep 29, 2011 4:16pm Sep 29, 2011 4:16pm
Lets forget that and focus on this.

I see on lower tfs 1633 support went and has given us some resistance.

yet on the higher Tfs 1600 and 1590 support areas are still intact.

We need to take out that old down channel line hitting the price line at 1650

http://pearls-necklaces.com/wp-conte...ld-Bullion.jpg
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #11,359
  • Sep 29, 2011 4:21pm Sep 29, 2011 4:21pm
I think C is a GREAT IDEA. Put eachother on ignore.

I think you are right in saying "i will get long now because gold is destined to go higher. While this may be true. How much LOWER will it go before it rises is what's most important.

Accounts can be blown by blindly chasing gold. A proper entry and a well though out exit strategy will do a trader fine whichever way they choose to trade long or short.



Quoting SunTrader
I agree but prefer to select C.

Which is what I mentioned some time ago to wheels that we each ignore the other. It is now in effect on my part.

Although I respect his opinion, however much I don't agree with it, he seems to think I have it in for anybody who wants to go long gold. No, only those who want to blindly go long Gold.

But be that as it may I won't bother any of those types anymore as well.

For the future I will talk, as I have, markets with charts etc and a sprinkle of fundis and ignore all the rest such as: 95% that...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #11,360
  • Sep 29, 2011 4:23pm Sep 29, 2011 4:23pm
Interesting chart worth following up on. Please do.

Quoting longshot_nl
possible gartley silver.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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