DislikedI completely respect your vision. I can't imagine gold going to 1000 now.
But I respect your vision because you are experienced with 10+ vouchers and more years than me in this.
And if you are right, I will be the first to come here and congratulate you.
But I personaly can't imagine gold going to 1000.
BTW, what's your opinion about indicators? Do they work?
Some people say they LAG and are useless. But I have yet to find out, I don't have at least 10-20 years in this to have an opinion about it.
Also does Elliot Wave work...Ignored
Hi ML,
first of all: vouches tell nothing. There are such many good traders and/or people with brain around completely without vouches........ :-(
Elliott wave (EW) is one of many methods to get an edge in the markets. Well, the EW approach is different, because it works with fractals, social mood etc. You need to have a lot of training to work with it.
My view is, that it is best to combine it with other methods, like S/R, Murrey Math and, important, momentum analysis.
Trading without Indicators would be like leaving a buck on the streets.
The thing is: one has to know how and when to use them.
For example: I do a lot of momentum analysis. I combine it with EW counts. So I am able to differentiate the waves by their momentum.
Very interesting is to watch the behavior of momentum at channel lines or trend lines and to draw the right conclusions
BUT: never think in an trending market that you have to go long because your indis show "Oversold". Remember everytime: Indis can stay much longer Overbought/Oversold than anyone can stay solvent.
Look out for divergences. They can be traded most of the time very well.
The nature of indis is: they lag, because they all use data from the past.
But that is not the point. If you build a system with indis, you need to get to know them, their pros and their limitations.
Hmmm, trading Gold with EW is a little bit different than trading EURUSD with EW, because in Gold you have most of the time the most momentum in wave 5. In EURUSD you have the most momentum (like stocks) in wave 3.
In currencies and stocks(indices) wave 5 is driven by greed, but in Gold wave 5 is driven by fear. That is the difference.
Give EW a chance. At the beginning one thinks that it must be hard to learn that stuff, but when you start reading you will notice that it is not rocket science. But it will give you a complete new understanding of the markets.
Regarding Gold to 1000:
That is right: it is hard to imagine. Certain well known EW-Analysts call for SP500 sub 400, Dow sub 1000. Even harder to imagine.
But look at Japan. More than 20 years in deflation and Nikkei went from 40000 to sub 10000.
That is what Deflation will do. And that is what bad social mood will do.
Even if you can not imagine it: build your plan "B" for such an event.
We, as traders, have not to trade our believes. We have to trade what we see to survive in these markets.
Gold was a screaming buy at 400, 600, even 1000 at the time given, but looking at a chart at 1900 it was an even louder screaming sell. When prices go parabolic it is time to prepare the parachutes.
Take care and be prepared,
best to you,
Markus
