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XAU/USD Spot Gold

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Jun 22, 2011 6:19pm Dec 19, 2010 6:55am | Edited Jun 22, 2011 6:19pm
  •  Jade Gate
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 810 Posts
Gold. Gotta love it. It's so honest and fast paced.
  • Post #2
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  • Dec 19, 2010 9:57am Dec 19, 2010 9:57am
  •  z3r0
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 276 Posts
There's one gold thread already
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver FX Traders Thread
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Dec 19, 2010 12:54pm Dec 19, 2010 12:54pm
  •  z3r0
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 276 Posts
Quoting Jade Gate
Disliked
Nice fib @ 138.2
Please feel free to comment
Ignored
I believe your fib scale has a couple of mistakes the normal full scale would be

0 14.6 23.6 38.2 50 61.8 78.6 86.0 94.2 100
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Dec 19, 2010 2:47pm Dec 19, 2010 2:47pm
  •  Jade Gate
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 810 Posts
Quoting z3r0
Disliked
There's one gold thread already
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver FX Traders Thread
Ignored
Yup, but a dedicated gold only thread would be useful (since many fx traders watch or trade gold as a measure of risk appetite, but do not trade or watch silver for those reasons), and there is often more than one thread per subject.
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Dec 19, 2010 2:50pm Dec 19, 2010 2:50pm
  •  Jade Gate
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 810 Posts
Quoting z3r0
Disliked
I believe your fib scale has a couple of mistakes the normal full scale would be

0 14.6 23.6 38.2 50 61.8 78.6 86.0 94.2 100
Ignored
Thanks z3ro, realise my fib arrangement is a variation of the classic scale, it just however seems a better fit for this market.
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Edited 9:16am Jan 11, 2011 8:11am | Edited 9:16am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Hello traders,

First post in here, Thanks to Jade Gate for creating this thread

Starting to build a short XAU/USD today from here at 1383.00.
Daily and above time frames are still long, so this trade should be considered as a counter trend trade until proved right with NO complacency for the stops.

Trade will be invalidated if the next 4H candle close above 1387.
Trade positive signal would be a daily close below 1376.40

Trade TF: 4H chart
Trade logic: Shorting the first pullback after a trend change below the 200 sma, the BBL serving as a resistance
Target 1: A new low, below the latest one at 1.352
Target 2: Below 1330
Target 3: Free ride, to be determined later

Time to sit tight and wait for the trade to develop, right or wrong...

Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Jan 11, 2011 10:07am Jan 11, 2011 10:07am
  •  alm00st
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
That was very nice entry around 1383

Testing broken TL
365 EMA on H1 wich gold respects a lot

we will see

srry for my english
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Size: 38 KB
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Jan 11, 2011 10:23am Jan 11, 2011 10:23am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Waiting for this 4H candle to close in 40 minutes, will add to shorts if price can close below 1370,5, will wait if closing above.

Stops on the full position will be at this 4H candle High at 1386.30, if I add to the short position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: XAUUSD 11012011-4H.png
Size: 64 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Jan 11, 2011 12:20pm Jan 11, 2011 12:20pm
  •  ukdaytrader
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,753 Posts
Combined with hidden bullish diverg on the 15m TF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Size: 23 KB


Target for long trade 1391.
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Jan 11, 2011 12:36pm Jan 11, 2011 12:36pm
  •  PipChick
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
Quoting ukdaytrader
Disliked
Combined with hidden bullish diverg on the 15m TF.

Attachment 614699

Target for long trade 1391.
Ignored
Ok so what you have is an inverse with an ABC pattern along with a rejection of the 61.8 (fib from right shoulder to the hi) AND bullish hidden divergence on the m15 chart. Looks like a set up to me. The best scenario would have been to buy off the 61.8 but you can look for an entry on the smaller tf using PA
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Jan 11, 2011 12:47pm Jan 11, 2011 12:47pm
  •  PipChick
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
Quoting ukdaytrader
Disliked
Combined with hidden bullish diverg on the 15m TF.

Attachment 614699

Target for long trade 1391.
Ignored
Hold that thought on gold...Im looking at some other things that may void that 1 hr and m15 chart.
 
 
  • Post #12
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  • Edited 10:18am Jan 12, 2011 9:26am | Edited 10:18am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
A small follow-up on yesterday's short position entry.

- Signal and trade still valid on the 4h chart.

- Trade invalidated if 4H candle close above 1388.
- Adding to the short if we can close a 4H candle below 1371.80

The 1376 level is critical, and if the trade should fail, I expect it would start with a rebound at that level and then a clear break above 1389.

Time will tell, no second guessing, just executing, but I should be recognized that the trade being a counter trend on higher time frames, high failure rate is to be expected...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: XAUUSD 12012011-4H.png
Size: 66 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
  • Post #13
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  • Jan 13, 2011 11:44am Jan 13, 2011 11:44am
  •  ukdaytrader
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,753 Posts
Gold spiked through the FE100, (1391).
I didn't take the trade, but it's nice to see it working. doh!
 
 
  • Post #14
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  • Edited 3:29am Jan 14, 2011 3:12am | Edited 3:29am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Short Trade follow up:

Trade still valid in 4H time frame.
Took some heat yesterday, but no demand above the 200 sma 4H, spiking and can't close above it, bulls should start to feel uncomfortable, seeing they can't push higher above the BBL...

Breakdown level for adding shorts to the trade is closing below 1371.90 in the next 4H.

So far for this trade:

Maximum Favorable Excursion is: +$13.7
Maximum Adverse Excursion is: -$9.90


Have patience, the grass will be milk soon enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: XAUUSD 14012011-4H.png
Size: 65 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
  • Post #15
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  • Jan 14, 2011 3:29am Jan 14, 2011 3:29am
  •  USD-Bear
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Quoting fxswing
Disliked
Short Trade follow up:

Trade still valid in 4H time frame.
Took some heat yesterday, but no demand above the 200 sma 4H, spiking and can't close above it, bulls should start to feel uncomfortable, seeing they can't push higher above the BBL...

Breakdown level for adding shorts to the trade is closing below 1371.90 in the next 4H.

So far for this trade:

Maximum Favorable Excursion is: +$13.7
Maximum Adverse Excursion is: -$10.00


Have patience, the grass will be milk soon enough.
Ignored
been shorting as from 1420, looks wise to positioning now, thanks for your views, as always great
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
 
 
  • Post #16
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  • Jan 14, 2011 3:38am Jan 14, 2011 3:38am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Quoting USD-Bear
Disliked
been shorting as from 1420, looks wise to positioning now, thanks for your views, as always great
Ignored
I couldn't start to short before because price action was clearly long, and I wouldn't fade gold's bullish trend, but with the price action on January 4th breaking the 4H trend, imho it's clearly inviting shorts to take their chance with objective signals on the chart.

We'll see, but it wouldn't be the first time that a strong trend stop and start a deep pull back / reversal just at the start of a new year...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:49am Jan 14, 2011 3:49am
  •  USD-Bear
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Quoting fxswing
Disliked
I couldn't start to short before because price action was clearly long, and I wouldn't fade gold's bullish trend, but with the price action on January 4th breaking the 4H trend, imho it's clearly inviting shorts to take their chance with objective signals on the chart.

We'll see, but it wouldn't be the first time that a strong trend stop and start a deep pull back / reversal just at the start of a new year...
Ignored
That's why you are a real swing-trader and I'm more a simple speculator
I made some 10 short bets of which 3 went bad by placing stops very fast to BE-level and pulling out where support is evident.
Got my current stop @ 1377 and planning to leave it there if market enables me....

Correction stop is @ 1382
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jan 14, 2011 5:50am Jan 14, 2011 5:50am
  •  boxingislife
  • Joined Jan 2006 | Status: gamblin wit style | 740 Posts
ascending triangle on 4h
this thing is goin way higher
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Jan 14, 2011 5:55am Jan 14, 2011 5:55am
  •  USD-Bear
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Quoting boxingislife
Disliked
ascending triangle on 4h
this thing is goin way higher
Ignored
could you show?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jan 14, 2011 7:00am Jan 14, 2011 7:00am
  •  fxswing
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Looks like gold want to go south a little bit more...

Finally this 4H candle closing at 12:00 GMT is giving the add-on signal I was waiting for.

Adding to shorts at or higher than 1368.0 , add-on stops 1375.0


Notice that we have a potential 3 days break signal in action in gold with a new low below 1369.3
Next signal would be a potential 5 days break below 1352.2
Keep in mind that 3 and 5 days break signals, needs the price to close below it in daily time frame, so this could still be invalidated intraday...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
 
 
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