Gold. Gotta love it. It's so honest and fast paced.
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Hello traders,
First post in here, Thanks to Jade Gate for creating this thread
Starting to build a short XAU/USD today from here at 1383.00.
Daily and above time frames are still long, so this trade should be considered as a counter trend trade until proved right with NO complacency for the stops.
Trade will be invalidated if the next 4H candle close above 1387.
Trade positive signal would be a daily close below 1376.40
Trade TF: 4H chart
Trade logic: Shorting the first pullback after a trend change below the 200 sma, the BBL serving as a resistance
Target 1: A new low, below the latest one at 1.352
Target 2: Below 1330
Target 3: Free ride, to be determined later
Time to sit tight and wait for the trade to develop, right or wrong...
First post in here, Thanks to Jade Gate for creating this thread
Starting to build a short XAU/USD today from here at 1383.00.
Daily and above time frames are still long, so this trade should be considered as a counter trend trade until proved right with NO complacency for the stops.
Trade will be invalidated if the next 4H candle close above 1387.
Trade positive signal would be a daily close below 1376.40
Trade TF: 4H chart
Trade logic: Shorting the first pullback after a trend change below the 200 sma, the BBL serving as a resistance
Target 1: A new low, below the latest one at 1.352
Target 2: Below 1330
Target 3: Free ride, to be determined later
Time to sit tight and wait for the trade to develop, right or wrong...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,753 Posts
Combined with hidden bullish diverg on the 15m TF.
Target for long trade 1391.
Target for long trade 1391.
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,753 Posts
Gold spiked through the FE100, (1391).
I didn't take the trade, but it's nice to see it working. doh!
I didn't take the trade, but it's nice to see it working. doh!
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Short Trade follow up:
Trade still valid in 4H time frame.
Took some heat yesterday, but no demand above the 200 sma 4H, spiking and can't close above it, bulls should start to feel uncomfortable, seeing they can't push higher above the BBL...
Breakdown level for adding shorts to the trade is closing below 1371.90 in the next 4H.
So far for this trade:
Maximum Favorable Excursion is: +$13.7
Maximum Adverse Excursion is: -$9.90
Have patience, the grass will be milk soon enough.
Trade still valid in 4H time frame.
Took some heat yesterday, but no demand above the 200 sma 4H, spiking and can't close above it, bulls should start to feel uncomfortable, seeing they can't push higher above the BBL...
Breakdown level for adding shorts to the trade is closing below 1371.90 in the next 4H.
So far for this trade:
Maximum Favorable Excursion is: +$13.7
Maximum Adverse Excursion is: -$9.90
Have patience, the grass will be milk soon enough.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Short Trade follow up:
Trade still valid in 4H time frame.
Took some heat yesterday, but no demand above the 200 sma 4H, spiking and can't close above it, bulls should start to feel uncomfortable, seeing they can't push higher above the BBL...
Breakdown level for adding shorts to the trade is closing below 1371.90 in the next 4H.
So far for this trade:
Maximum Favorable Excursion is: +$13.7
Maximum Adverse Excursion is: -$10.00
Have patience, the grass will be milk soon enough.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
been shorting as from 1420, looks wise to positioning now, thanks for your views, as always great
We'll see, but it wouldn't be the first time that a strong trend stop and start a deep pull back / reversal just at the start of a new year...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
I couldn't start to short before because price action was clearly long, and I wouldn't fade gold's bullish trend, but with the price action on January 4th breaking the 4H trend, imho it's clearly inviting shorts to take their chance with objective signals on the chart.
We'll see, but it wouldn't be the first time that a strong trend stop and start a deep pull back / reversal just at the start of a new year...
I made some 10 short bets of which 3 went bad by placing stops very fast to BE-level and pulling out where support is evident.
Got my current stop @ 1377 and planning to leave it there if market enables me....
Correction stop is @ 1382
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,355 Posts
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.