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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,941
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:26am Sep 25, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Wheels
You could be right that silver prices may be suppressed for some time in the future - but you would be wrong to assume this has anything to do with the physical supply and demand for silver in the world.
I was not talking about price suppression or physical supply or demand (quite the opposite, I even admitted that fundamentals might still point upwards), I was talking about the observed facts that price never moves in a straight line, no matter how strong the trend.

Edit: And this is true on all timeframes. Look at the monthly chart. Even a correction of 1000$ would not violate the overall up trend. It would only teach some people who trade without stops a painful lesson.
  • #10,942
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:27am Sep 25, 2011 10:27am
Quoting 7bit
Yes. I have written about my ideas, but I won't do the trading for you.
eehhhhm that was meant actually for the previous poster, not you.
Yours posts 7bit actually do bring value, and I already congratulated you on not being "mainstream". So do not take any offence, hehe, since none was intended.

Learning a lesson about global metals supply and demand laws is very inspiring indeed, however there are a bunch of investment banks that release annual reports and anyone can get hold of that and get inspired.

I think this thread is deviating frequently and would be more than happy to discuss actual trade setups, chit chat is cool but there are a bunch of threads, which are better suited for it I guess.
  • #10,943
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:27am Sep 25, 2011 10:27am
Quoting ruffryders
http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__.../Blablabla.JPG

Got any actual tradeable ideas?
Stay the heck out of this market for a bit.

With margin requirements raised again, there is absolutely no telling what will occur Monday night.

Although margin requirements are supposed to temper volatility, they are often followed by big price swings.

I think going long or short is risky in the short term.
  • #10,944
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:33am Sep 25, 2011 10:33am
Quoting 7bit
I was not talking about price suppression or physical supply or demand (quite the opposite, I even admitted that fundamentals might still point upwards), I was talking about the observed facts that price never moves in a straight line, no matter how strong the trend.
This is true.

I just think gold and silver prices have been poised to break through into a new normal range when this volatility eventually subsides.

$20 is not unthinkable, but would be reflecting paper tigers behaving like bullies in the sandbox. I will join the marketing blitz to promote the purchase of physical silver at that level.

Although a common statement among conspiracy nuts - there is truth to the notion that if every North American were to buy one single ounce of silver, that price suppression would become apparent and unjustifiable.
  • #10,945
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:49am Sep 25, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Wheels
price suppression
In the end it will not matter whether it was price suppression, manipulation, fraud or a totally normal correction that will look totally healthy on the monthly chart or even the bursting of a bubble.

In the end all that counts is that you are not caught on the wrong side of the move. If you suspect manipulation (where someone else would only see a normal technical correction) then it does not matter what it actually was, this won't make the losses less painful, it would only give you someone else to blame but the losses would not go away from shifting the blame around.

If there comes a retracement, no matter what or who is causing it or what was the final catalyst for an inevitable event, then just try to trade accordingly and don't try to fight it.
  • #10,946
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:03am Sep 25, 2011 11:03am
Quoting Bemac
Better than 95% of us.
Don't Fight.
Understand & Follow.

Easier said...

B
10-4 on the following and understanding, our schooling continues.
I do have to say she has held true to her expected patterns if one understands higher timeframe trends as I have tried to do my part on the thread giving a heads up from my angle.
All though I am relatively new at trading whats opening my eyes is the manipulation they have done in both silver and gold (changing rules, propaganda, deception, etc. to maintain control which is evident by the way they handle price at extended yearly highs.
So as in any market once expected extended yearly highs are achieved from the yearly breakout the rotation back to test yearly breakout is is in play. The smaller timeframes 1st.
We look to Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly support response.
Gold just gave her response to the weekly and monthly.
Shes now looking for the upcoming quarter quarterly pivot, which as of friday is 1624 although although an accurate 4th quarter trend guide will not be accurate till 3rd quarter close.
cheers
  • #10,947
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:32am Sep 25, 2011 11:32am
Quoting Wheels
......

Although margin requirements are supposed to temper volatility, they are often followed by big price swings.......
It's the other way around. Big price swings bring margin changes

But since you seems to care nothing about TA and are more of an investor than trader why are you bothering with the thread? Got me baffled.
  • #10,948
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:35am Sep 25, 2011 11:35am
Quoting 7bit
In the end it will not matter whether it was price suppression, manipulation, fraud or a totally normal correction that will look totally healthy on the monthly chart or even the bursting of a bubble.

In the end all that counts is that you are not caught on the wrong side of the move. If you suspect manipulation (where someone else would only see a normal technical correction) then it does not matter what it actually was, this won't make the losses less painful, it would only give you someone else to blame but the losses would not go away...
I'm not fighting it per se. I'm out of the market for now so not in a losing position.

At the same time, it is time for the lay folk to do a bit of homework on money movers. The spirit of law (and actual laws) may forbid some of the activity that may be unfolding in the market. It's important to keep an eye on this activity.

Part of me trades because it's an interesting market.

Again - not fighting the market with my trades. This stuff is fascinating to me.
  • #10,949
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:36am Sep 25, 2011 11:36am
Quoting ruffryders
......... Learning a lesson about global metals supply and demand laws is very inspiring indeed, however there are a bunch of investment banks that release annual reports and anyone can get hold of that and get inspired.
.........
Good one.

That's my attitude. There is trading ........ and there is everything else.

Nothing wrong with the everything else. Just not my thing.
  • #10,950
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:56am Sep 25, 2011 11:56am
Quoting SunTrader
It's the other way around. Big price swings bring margin changes

But since you seems to care nothing about TA and are more of an investor than trader why are you bothering with the thread? Got me baffled.
Yes - generally - but the recent margin hikes have brought price down silver spot price significantly. This has made price swings more volatile if anything.

I am interested in fib and RSI levels generally speaking - just find some chart analysis intriguing given the immutable evolution of market conditions. I would like to know what kind of R analysis someone like 7bit has done, but statistically significant analysis seem to be rare in chart-based TA.

I do like to trade, but don't have the kind of money to manage this volatility for now. I am prepared for conditions to change and an obvious strategy to become clear once again, but don't like swimming with sharks when uncertainty is the only certainty.

Trading is fun when movements are "natural", but when coordinated sell-offs and speculative spikes are the norm, then the probability that I will be in the inside circle of price action is low.
  • #10,951
  • Sep 25, 2011 2:59pm Sep 25, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting Wheels
I would like to know what kind of R analysis someone like 7bit has done, but statistically significant analysis seem to be rare in chart-based TA.
I have tried a lot of things with pattern recognition, machine learning, etc. and also some statistical arbitrage strategies but none of this has found its way into a reliable automatic trading system for me. Its still only research and experimenting.

For my trading I still use plain old support/resistance, trend lines, channels, etc and also the obvious patterns like triangles and h&s on higher timeframes.

I *don't* use any indicators like RSI and similar to tell me what is "oversold" or other such conditions of which I don't believe they even exist or make any sense. The only indicators I *sometimes* look at are 100 and 200 day moving averages when price comes near them to act as support/resistance but they don't play the primary role in my trading.

I need a naked chart and the possibility to draw lines and this is all I need for trading. I don't need to interpret fundamentals (and get it wrong), the market is doing that for me automatically 24/7, the result is displayed in the price chart in realtime, I just have to read it from there.
  • #10,952
  • Sep 25, 2011 3:19pm Sep 25, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting 7bit
I have tried a lot of things with pattern recognition, machine learning, etc. and also some statistical arbitrage strategies but none of this has found its way into a reliable automatic trading system for me.
For my trading I still use plain old support/resistance, trend lines, channels, etc and also the higher timeframes.
I *don't* use any indicators like RSI and similar to tell me what is "oversold" or other such conditions .
I need a naked chart and the possibility to draw lines and this is all I need for trading. I don't need to interpret...
I here ya and with ya.
and thats a 10-4 on the ea, they can work on some of the trends some of the time but not all trends all the time.
  • #10,953
  • Sep 25, 2011 3:22pm Sep 25, 2011 3:22pm
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...A24%3A2011.mp3
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...r_Selloff.html


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...A25%3A2011.mp3
  • #10,954
  • Sep 25, 2011 3:52pm Sep 25, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting lilpip
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...A24%3A2011.mp3
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...r_Selloff.html


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...A25%3A2011.mp3
thank you for the link lilpip,
biggest sell off for gold in one day, huge volume, sais enough.
however we can discuss about the duration of this movement.
the end of the month is near and could turn the table

i also spot quite a bit of support levels where price is now,
maybe there will be a touch of the 1700 to hit it back lower, OR NOT.
for now i got no intentions to bull this until there is a higher low pattern with a succesful test and decent reverse candles on higher timeframes

trade save peeps.

S.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #10,955
  • Sep 25, 2011 4:20pm Sep 25, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting lilpip
should I be surprised that the quarter closes 1 penny above yearly breakout for silver @ 34.65 ?
from $35.38 bias is down.
above 35.38 spells bull.
sept monthly
45.66
40.25
34.84
She's looking for next quarters support with a drop below monthly trend guide 40.25, 3rd quarter pivot 35.38 and monthly lows 34.84 .
We start a day at a time.
mon.
39.25
33.76
28.27
weekly
41.40
34.62
27.84
although month has not closed as of fri. oct. monthly lows lines up with the weekly lows 27.70-84 area.
  • #10,956
  • Sep 25, 2011 6:54pm Sep 25, 2011 6:54pm
Man a little $300 pullback and this thread goes comatose.
  • #10,957
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:22pm Sep 25, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting lilpip
she closes like she wants to continue, will have to watch day to day but looking for correction @ 32.40- 3460 area, if not lets double last years range again this year which will put us at $51.00 area.last years 15.00 area (yearly pivot) is $23.40 area this year, and lets hope it gets that low so we can buy a bunch more otherwise at this point Im looking at $26-27 before we get there.
Jan.3rd post outlook for year shows 23.40 is yearly trend guide, lets first see how weekly lows respond.
  • #10,958
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting SunTrader
Man a little $300 pullback and this thread goes comatose.
Actually - the average number of pages of posts per month is about 39.

There have been about 25 pages of posts since the correction started last Wednesday (less than a week).

This is not what I would call comatose.

In fact, there is an above average number of posts.

Some of us have decided not to waste time with pointless debates, but the forum thread is actually still active.

Kinda ruins your little dig, doesn't it?
  • #10,959
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:43pm Sep 25, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting Wheels
..........Kinda ruins your little dig, doesn't it?
WTF are you talking about. It was a little comment about sparse activity this evening on this thread (not the full forum) from anyyyyyyone abbout anyyyyything related to Gold going anyyyyy direction.

Don't take things personal. Markets don't care about ego and don't care about opinions and most especially don't care about what should happen.

But my "dig" at least got a response.

And hey price is up too.
  • #10,960
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:58pm Sep 25, 2011 7:58pm
Am I seeing a double bottom in 1H?
Sorry if not, still a newbie
Good luck to everyone...
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