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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,361
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:01pm Sep 19, 2011 6:01pm
Here is a great link that some here might like to read:

http://www.medianline.com/ and http://www.medianline.com/articles/

There's a lot to read on those two links, and on that entire website in fact, but it's damn good reading and everyone can learn something there.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,362
  • Edited 8:43pm Sep 19, 2011 6:13pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting lilpip
Keeping an eye on the trends.
Sept. close should be interesting, bias is up from 1757 and lets see what 1830 has to say
monthly pivot
1974
1757
1537
weekly
1909
1830
1751
mon.daily
1859
1810-15
1759
bounce down from weekly trend guide 1830 along with the drop below daily pivot. The turn around when silver hit its weekly lows area of 38.80 area was noted also.
tue.daily
1836
1795
1754-59
with 1757 area holding its ground monday lets see how daily pivot 1795 responds tuesday.
  • #10,363
  • Edited 6:58pm Sep 19, 2011 6:40pm | Edited 6:58pm
Hey all. As mentioned earlier, here is a trend breakout system which is an amalgamation of a few things I've found here and other places such as indo investasi.



So what I combined was:

Stairstep breakout indicator by Squalou -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007I've attached the version i use.

with a free system called Alpha trader. The trend breakout dashboard is commercial if you are curious about that pm me.

These are the instructions forexhard gave for configuring the stairstep:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post4963178
In a nutshell how I read this chart: When price drops below the 2 hi-lo indicators as pictued on the left you should only go short not long..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sq6.jpg Size: 144 KB


(BY THE WAY I am not using the stop loss and TP pictured on the chart so please do not ask me about it. I forgot to remove it.)

after this my trigger to short are the bunched up arrows at the bottom of the breakout box. The hull and little X marks color also gives clear indications of a trend reversal.

Template pictured above is in the zip file called trendbreakout.tpl. Enjoy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip version_3.0_alphatrader (3).zip   68 KB | 597 downloads
  • #10,364
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:11pm Sep 19, 2011 7:11pm
Now or before should be a good time to buy.

Any of you that played the GAP and made an easy 25 USD trade should have taken profit already if you are scalping,

after the third attempt at cracking 1825 the abusers and market movers came in today on a risk off day for commodities.

Surprisingly, rhodium was the only PM to rise.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #10,365
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:13pm Sep 19, 2011 7:13pm
Brent down
Dow Down (lol thats common)
All pms down.

foreign currencies down and oversold. Greece default main subject.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #10,366
  • Edited 9:39pm Sep 19, 2011 7:19pm | Edited 9:39pm
Quoting lilpip
lets see how this weeks trend guide 40.81 responds to this stronger monthly trend guide 40.25-35 area at weeks open.
monthly
45.66
40.25
34.84
weekly silver
42.84
40.81
38.78
daily trend guide 40.35
bounce down from weekly pivot area 40.81 to weekly lows area of 38.78 is noted along with rotation starting back up.
daily breakout did not hold as she climb back above daily lows 39.30.
tue daily
41.12
39.95
38.78
eye will be on 39.95 -40.25 response
  • #10,367
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:19pm Sep 19, 2011 7:19pm
Thanks, I'm setting this up as I type, but I must ask and I hope Im not going off topic,...how do you correctly identify when to go long not short?

Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
Hey all. As mentioned earlier, here is a trend breakout system which is an amalgamation of a few things I've found here and other places such as indo investasi.



So what I combined was:

Stairstep breakout indicator by Squalou -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007I've attached the version i use.

with a free system called Alpha trader. The trend breakout dashboard is commercial if you are curious about that pm me.

These are the instructions forexhard gave for configuring the stairstep:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post4963178
In...
  • #10,368
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:25pm Sep 19, 2011 7:25pm
Quoting XTrade
Now or before should be a good time to buy.
No....I'm looking for a sell.....probably about $1795-ish.....but the trigger finger is ready from here on in.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 78 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,369
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:40pm Sep 19, 2011 7:40pm
sorry for not being clear. What I'm doing is in the example of a short setup on the chart above wait for 2 things to happen: a, price dips below the yellow dashed line (hilo indi). b, I want to see red arrows at the bottom of a breakout box, prefably at least 2 or 3 that may have not broken through. This to me indicates price accumulation and then capitulation.

For long (the way I use it), price would need to be above the yellow dashed line along with yellow breakout arrows at the top of the breakout box. This portends a breakout higher.

Key is see this for what it is 2 systems. The base template shows you overall trend. The breakout box shows where price is likely to bounce either higher or lower. For me, being on the right direction of the breakout is a challenge. This helps you to not fight price action.

Quoting KinG-Solomon
Thanks, I'm setting this up as I type, but I must ask and I hope Im not going off topic,...how do you correctly identify when to go long not short?
  • #10,370
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:28pm Sep 19, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting Ravissek
I heavent Margin calls .I have 300k$ on acc as capital and I open max 25trades .One trade =0.1 lots.My cash is what I make every month.
So I have capital to 100 000 pips Move with 25trades opened.
But on average day I trade with 4-6trades all at one.
$300,000 is all well and fine however I would encourage one that as managers of money not to trade blindly against intermidate trends but to stay with it.
If one was t have 5 days in a row opposite your orders one might find themselves pooched out on a limb just a bit to far.
  • #10,371
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:07pm Sep 19, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting realjumper
No....I'm looking for a sell.....probably about $1795-ish.....but the trigger finger is ready from here on in.....
Uhmmm !
I am doubting this move ,short term looks bearish but longer term looks mixed
If at London market gold drop ,I will be with you riding on the Bear
  • #10,372
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:13pm Sep 19, 2011 10:13pm
Excellent my friend, please take a look at my template here and tell me what you think. I use th 3 Level Semafor to auto-draw/calc the Trendlines when trading on TF 1m/5m/15/1h/4h/1d/1w/1m.

The template you'll find is now a combo of your system and mine, I am testing currently to see how even more precise it can possibly prove to be :nerd:

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=FF4Z7XYV



Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
sorry for not being clear. What I'm doing is in the example of a short setup on the chart above wait for 2 things to happen: a, price dips below the yellow dashed line (hilo indi). b, I want to see red arrows at the bottom of a breakout box, prefably at least 2 or 3 that may have not broken through. This to me indicates price accumulation and then capitulation.

For long (the way I use it), price would need to be above the yellow dashed line along with yellow breakout arrows at the top of the breakout box. This portends a breakout higher.

Key is...
  • #10,373
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:28pm Sep 19, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting Nguyenngoctu
Uhmmm !
I am doubting this move ,short term looks bearish but longer term looks mixed
If at London market gold drop ,I will be with you riding on the Bear
What I'm looking for is a re-test of the daily pivot at 1792.9 (or thereabouts), before a drop to S1 at 1758.9 and then possibly S2 at 1736.6. A convincing break of the daily pivot will, of course, invalidate this.

The PA might drop without testing the pivot too.....in which case I will miss my entry, but that the way it goes!!

I'm not too worried about the longer term at this stage.....it's difficult to know what's in store for the long term, so Intraday trading of this pair is best for me at the moment
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,374
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:24pm Sep 19, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting XTrade
Now or before should be a good time to buy.

Any of you that played the GAP and made an easy 25 USD trade should have taken profit already if you are scalping,

after the third attempt at cracking 1825 the abusers and market movers came in today on a risk off day for commodities.

Surprisingly, rhodium was the only PM to rise.
Hi X,

You won't believe what happened today morning. I throwed up a visit to one my friend who is a broker over here, he was telling there was a lot of blood yesterday on the Gold market. He showed me an account yesterday of a client.. ( yes, completely against company rules..that's why I don't have an account with him!)
That guy was long at 1825 and he closed out at 1775 for a loss of 3 million $ :O :O . I was really shocked but then I wondered that price would drop one last time to 1750 or even 1740 so that the people who got out yesterday feel they made the right decision (market psyc). Let's see about this view as it is not backed by any chart.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #10,375
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:38pm Sep 19, 2011 11:38pm
http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2...d120092011.png

XAU USD D1 TL broke we can see a retest, which will be just another reason to add short. Alternatively short sell below 1757. Currently PA is stuck @ MP, so I won't bother. In fact some might want to get in long for a retest of that strong D1 TL.

Overall move was predictable, BRENT D1 reversal candle was a strong indication of the weakness and this time around brent set off a reaction on gold.
  • #10,376
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:41pm Sep 19, 2011 11:41pm
http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/8...d120092011.png

Quick recap of D1 Brent. The reversal stick on Friday @ technical confluence resulted in brent sliding to 109, the highlighted white area on the chart. This area though might provide only temp support and won't last for long. After break below 108-109 I expect brent to slip further down to 102. Lets see how it goes then.
  • #10,377
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:49am Sep 20, 2011 12:49am
Quoting realjumper
Anyone can draw forks.....correct or not.....*after* the fact.......to be useful though you need to show people your forks at the time of drawing them to show whether or not they work out. To keep showing forks that were (apparently) successful after the fact is just a waste of time. It's like saying "I made 100 pips on that downmove"......yeah right......anyone can call it after the fact......

So put me on ignore - a number of members have sent me messages thanking me for sharing my methodology. It's obviously too simple for you so just ignore me/it.....

beeb

and btw as referenced in the post I DID show the forks before the move....
  • #10,378
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:53am Sep 20, 2011 12:53am
Quoting beeb
So put me on ignore - a number of members have sent me messages thanking me for sharing my methodology. It's obviously too simple for you so just ignore me/it.....

beeb

and btw as referenced in the post I DID show the forks before the move....
Why do you get soooo anal about this? I don't care what other members allegedly sent you.....it's not relevant.

I cannot see your forks before the move......show me the link.

If you are genuine, why do you you get so defensive? Just show people....before the move has completed.....how your system works. What's so wrong with that??????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,379
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:01am Sep 20, 2011 1:01am
Quoting realjumper
Why do you get soooo anal about this? I don't care what other members allegedly sent you.....it's not relevant.

I cannot see your forks before the move......show me the link.

If you are genuine, why do you you get so defensive? Just show people....before the move has completed.....how your system works. What's so wrong with that??????
I'm not getting into another row with you - it's just not worth it......

Look at my post it has the link to my original post.

I'm not here to post trades for people - my intention is to try to provide some insights into a trading methodology. Check the links from XTrade's first post if you want. Obviously you're gonna sneer at that as you do towards most things - which is fine but again a waste of time.

So why don't you just ignore me/my posts - easier for all concerned.

beeb
  • #10,380
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:25am Sep 20, 2011 1:25am
Quoting beeb
I'm not getting into another row with you - it's just not worth it......

Look at my post it has the link to my original post.

I'm not here to post trades for people - my intention is to try to provide some insights into a trading methodology. Check the links from XTrade's first post if you want. Obviously you're gonna sneer at that as you do towards most things - which is fine but again a waste of time.

So why don't you just ignore me/my posts - easier for all concerned.

beeb
I don't want to fight with you either....no matter what you think.

I looked at the link in your post and it clearly shows a fork drawn well after the fact, not before it.

I understand that you're not here to post trades for other people..and that's fair enough. It's not fair however, to post chart after chart after chart when the moves have already been. What can anyone possibly learn from that??

If you truly want to show a trading methodology, you would show these forks, correctly drawn, *before* the move......not after it has completed. ForexFactory is full of people who only ever post winning trades....after the fact.....and they are all worthless.

I'm not "sneering" at you or anyone else, I'm just saying, if you're going to post charts under the guise of showing a trading methodology, post the charts before the fact.....win or lose, it doesn't matter. There is just as much to be learned from a losing trade as there is from a winning trade....and I have lot's of respect for people who post their trades up front, and post their losses as well as their wins.

And as far as supporting PM's go.....dude......I have received a fair share of them on this issue.

And no, I'm not going to put you on ignore, there are too many people here (at FF) that get 'led down the garden path' and actually learn nothing......and that is a great pity, and it's sad. This place is a great place to learn this business, but it depends on everyone being honest......win or lose.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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