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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,261
  • Sep 18, 2011 5:33pm Sep 18, 2011 5:33pm
A long at the bottom of the channel would have been a great entry.

Sorry for no signal. Been a bit busy lately. Physical trade picking up.

Scalping as of now, now that channel is broken - range is possible.

Although I am looking for a renewed bull run after a needed breather on the bull side.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #10,262
  • Sep 18, 2011 5:34pm Sep 18, 2011 5:34pm
Yo X, nice to see your post today . I went long friday close. You think I am in a good position right now? lol

Sounds silly but something is wrong when I can be so right

edit: 1840 would be a real hurdle looking at H4. A close above that with a strong candle could take it to 1900
Trends I Love Finding
  • #10,263
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:55pm Sep 18, 2011 6:55pm
Hey Brother,

Gold may have corrected a bit, yet it was necessary, 1760 seems to be the bottom of the opened up 100 usd range. Now if we expand the trading range
from The next support 1700 and the next resistance 1900 we get 200 USD to play with. Being that we seem to have tapped the area at 1760 twice, low 1800's could offer up some nice positions especially know that the downward channel is officially broken.


I am scalping ATM cause I haven't been doing too much paper trading, more-so physical and numismatic coin trading. Numismatics are fun once you get into them. (another post - potential with grading to take a 300 USD value gold coin to 700 just on a grade. Or an old silver dollar from 40 to 300!.)

I'd say if you are long from Friday close you already made a 20 USD move on the gap! We have a TON of gaps tonight on majors and minors. Some over 50 pips.

Beware of Gap always and it's only Sunday. I should have noted 1760 more clearly as a strong support, but yes I think we are on the way back up and I am shooting for 2k by December.

Things are not getting better in the Global recession - I don't care what the


Quoting Tilf
Yo X, nice to see your post today . I went long friday close. You think I am in a good position right now? lol

Sounds silly but something is wrong when I can be so right

edit: 1840 would be a real hurdle looking at H4. A close above that with a strong candle could take it to 1900
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #10,264
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:10pm Sep 18, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting XTrade
Hey Brother,

Gold may have corrected a bit, yet it was necessary, 1760 seems to be the bottom of the opened up 100 usd range. Now if we expand the trading range
from The next support 1700 and the next resistance 1900 we get 200 USD to play with. Being that we seem to have tapped the area at 1760 twice, low 1800's could offer up some nice positions especially know that the downward channel is officially broken.


I am scalping ATM cause I haven't been doing too much paper trading, more-so physical and numismatic coin trading. Numismatics are...
taking a risk short on gold and silver. Price has likeliness of going back down to support of at least 1780. silver looks to drop to 40.40 based on my ta.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,265
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:17pm Sep 18, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting bumapatria
taking a risk short on gold and silver. Price has likeliness of going back down to support of at least 1780. silver looks to drop to 40.40 based on my ta.
Stocks are dropping. s&p drops 1.32% right now, Nasdaq futures are 1.14% lower. bonds are dropping. kospi drop 0.70%

Good bearish lookout for gold and silver.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,266
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:43pm Sep 18, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting bumapatria
Stocks are dropping. s&p drops 1.32% right now, Nasdaq futures are 1.14% lower. bonds are dropping. kospi drop 0.70%

Good bearish lookout for gold and silver.
You forgot US Dollar index - it is up 0.55% which isn't necessarily good for gold. Although there are days when they move the same. Mostly not so.
  • #10,267
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:00pm Sep 18, 2011 8:00pm
Quoting SunTrader
You forgot US Dollar index - it is up 0.55% which isn't necessarily good for gold. Although there are days when they move the same. Mostly not so.
Oops.. i saw that as well..
Wait.. so when USDX goes up, gold goes up?

when usdx goes up that usually means that usd is weakening right? or is it the opposite.

Sorry for the novice question, i never look a usdx, and dont know how its supposed to be read.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,268
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:03pm Sep 18, 2011 8:03pm
One thing im not really liking about gold and silver is the huge pip stops, and large pip values.. I dont know if pip is the right word, but i guess im only going to trade coms on demo.. live im still with my favorite pairs majors.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,269
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:14pm Sep 18, 2011 8:14pm
Most times gold up / dollar down and vice versa dollar up / gold down.

Repeat most times but nothing ever in trading is absolute.

And I only refer to currencies in terms of pips. Everything else is dollars or points. You can't buy anything with a "pip".

Then again dollars might someday not be able to buy a thing either.
  • #10,270
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:17pm Sep 18, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
Most times gold up / dollar down and vice versa dollar up / gold down.

Repeat most times but nothing ever in trading is absolute.

And I only refer to currencies in terms of pips. Everything else is dollars or points. You can't buy anything with a "pip".

Then again dollars might someday not be able to buy a thing either.
Oh thanks for that! My silver shorts doing well. My gold just need to move few cents to my favor.

I know the big controversy of only buying gold, but i will test this.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,271
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:20pm Sep 18, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting bumapatria
Oops.. i saw that as well..
Wait.. so when USDX goes up, gold goes up?

when usdx goes up that usually means that usd is weakening right? or is it the opposite.

Sorry for the novice question, i never look a usdx, and dont know how its supposed to be read.
It's the opposite.

The higher the US dollar index rises, the lower the relative price of gold will be (if gold is priced in USD).

The USDX is key for most currency pairs (even non-USD pairs) so a good thing to pay attention to for all traders - novice to experienced.

I think USDX bulls (and gold bears) are buying into the lies and deception. When bank hoarding (lots of quantitative easing, but cash has been hoarded by banks) comes to an end, inflation is inevitable.

Just attended a resource investment conference with multiple speakers warning people that bank cash hoarding causes initial deflation and economic slow down, but won't prevent the inevitable - high inflation. Unless this entire system is a sham and basic logic does not apply, the USD has a long way to fall when this money finally trickles back into the market.

This is why gold bears who assume there is no logic in the position of bulls get under my skin. The amount of money pumped into the system will eventually be reflected by the value of the USD. Even with an effort to coordinate easing among central banks world-wide, the amount of USD now in the market will eventually have a significant impact (far beyond what we've seen).

Banks can't hoard cash forever because loans remain the bread and butter for commercial institutions...

Another note to the young trader- the majority of this OTC forex market is a racket. This is coming from someone who has not lost their equity and who still trades, foolishly albeit. Just keep in mind that comparing success from demo to live does not reflect this market. A lot of big sharks looking to eat up the little fishies.

I am curious whether anyone on this forum thread works for a broker to be honest. Just be aware - this is not an honest or transparent business.
  • #10,272
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:21pm Sep 18, 2011 8:21pm
my last three gold trades:


15 sept. buy at 1809. close at 1774 = loss -35 pips

16 sept. buy at 1783 . close at 1803 = profit + 20 pips

17 sept. buy at 1805. close at 1825 = profit + 20 pips


OVERALL: up + 5 pips.


well folks i have indeed recovered the 35 pips i had lost.
  • #10,273
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:23pm Sep 18, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting whatfx
my last three gold trades:


15 sept. buy at 1809. close at 1774 = loss -35 pips

16 sept. buy at 1783 . close at 1803 = profit + 20 pips

17 sept. buy at 1805. close at 1825 = profit + 20 pips


OVERALL: up + 5 pips.


well folks i have indeed recovered the 35 pips i had lost.
So u definitely dont try to short gold huh?

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,274
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:27pm Sep 18, 2011 8:27pm
Silver short doing well. looking to retest daily pivot or just go to daily support.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,275
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:49pm Sep 18, 2011 8:49pm
The US dollar index is NOT going up because of dollar bulls. It is going up because of Euro bears.

The dollar will most likely continue to decline over time. But the euro is in a very rough period and might even gasp not be around in the future.

Notice I said likely and might.

Beware anyone who tells what will happen, especially a speaker in front of a podium.
  • #10,276
  • Sep 18, 2011 8:55pm Sep 18, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting SunTrader
The US dollar index is NOT going up because of dollar bulls. It is going up because of Euro bears.

The dollar will most likely continue to decline over time. But the euro is in a very rough period might even gasp might not be around in the future.

Notice I said likely and might.

Beware anyone who tells what will happen, especially a speaker in front of a podium.
Fundamentals affect gold a lot right?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,277
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:18pm Sep 18, 2011 9:18pm
Quoting bumapatria
Fundamentals affect gold a lot right?
They do when they are this bad.

But everything that is traded are affected by fundamentals.

From the link that X provided it was mentioned that gold is driven by currency debasement (printing of money or issuance of bonds) and interest rates.

Those are the keys to watch for.
  • #10,278
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:22pm Sep 18, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting SunTrader
The US dollar index is NOT going up because of dollar bulls. It is going up because of Euro bears.

The dollar will most likely continue to decline over time. But the euro is in a very rough period and might even gasp not be around in the future.

Notice I said likely and might.

Beware anyone who tells what will happen, especially a speaker in front of a podium.
You are right - it is not going up because of dollar bulls, but the Euro alone should not be enough to cause the USDX to rise. There are other currencies that affect the USDX, ST.

The behaviour of the swiss franc (and gold in USD) should be an indicator that funny business is in the works.

An excellent analogy to the current predicament is the furnace. If you put a clamp on a valve, eventually it will burst, or the entire furnace will explode.

The kind of market manipulation (central bank intervention and quantitative easing) that is ongoing "may" lead to hyper-inflationary conditions. Otherwise, there is an alternate plan that we, the laypeople, are not hearing.

The valuations we are seeing "may" be related to manipulation of prices. The fact that China's continued push toward a gold standard has not had more of an impact on the price of gold is intriguing.

Yes- there is more to the story - but do you think currencies are manipulated, ST?

Do you think that gold's price has kept pace with the number of dollars pumped into the system (QE1/QE2 + soaring debt)?

How do think the price of gold is determined?

Please don't take this as an affront. I am honestly curious about how you see the functioning of these markets.
  • #10,279
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:39pm Sep 18, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting Wheels
..... Yes- there is more to the story - but do you think currencies are manipulated, ST? .......
Every market at different times is manipulated to a certain extent. How much and for how long - who knows. I just don't lose sleep over it.

My main focus is price and to a lesser degree funnymentals.
  • #10,280
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:03am Sep 19, 2011 12:03am
Quoting Nguyenngoctu
Nice job !
If Gold continuing to rise on monday ,that is a very bullish signal .
Chart's showing the bull still controlling the game .
although its a common pattern to rotate back to the monthly pivot from a monhly, or quarterly high and push up from there we have to keep in mind that we dealing with the strongest trend that being the yearly as we are rotating back in from extended yearly highs 1936 area.
A pattern that has repeated itself when we consider when the primary trend hit its extended high is to rotate back to quarterly support which is the up coming quarter so there may still be some downside.
An example of that being last year when silver broke its yearly highs at 21.89 and achieved its extended yearly highs target of 30.89. She then rotated back to the secondary trend guide or quarterly pivot area $26.27 and pushed up. Not to mention a retest of the yearly breakout area after yearly highs achieved as she did this year.
Anyways, although my bias for the day is up from the daily trend guide 1810 Im not totaly convinced that the bulls are in control until were trading on the otherside of the weekly pivot 1830 then I'll be with ya on that .
cheers
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