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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,221
  • Sep 17, 2011 6:49am Sep 17, 2011 6:49am
Hi guys, hope everyone is having a good weekend. Here's what I got on gold H4 and H3. I'd be looking to short sell.

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/3...sd17092011.png

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5605/...h317092011.png
  • #10,222
  • Sep 17, 2011 6:52am Sep 17, 2011 6:52am
http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_...er16.2011.html

I don't usually go by mainstream at all, but even survey @ kitco shows mid-term weakness. I can agree that long-term is bullish, but right now seems 1700 is pretty attainable.
  • #10,223
  • Sep 17, 2011 7:17am Sep 17, 2011 7:17am
Quoting ruffryders
right now seems 1700 is pretty attainable.
right now 1850 seems pretty attainable then big fall (look future price blue line)
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  • #10,224
  • Sep 17, 2011 7:23am Sep 17, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Forbes55
right now 1850 seems pretty attainable then big fall (look future price blue line)
and that blue line is what some magical crystal ball or something?

Fractals, fourier, etc is a hit/miss game really. Makes more sense to just use basic TA concepts.

1850 projected by TA is OK, 1850 cause some blue line say so - not good in my books, sorry.
  • #10,225
  • Sep 17, 2011 7:30am Sep 17, 2011 7:30am
Yeah, using the same line here actually, constructed using D1 and zoomed in on H4.

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/7...d117092011.gif
  • #10,226
  • Sep 17, 2011 7:36am Sep 17, 2011 7:36am
http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4...d117092011.png

BRENT is gonna retest 100 dollar mark and although not a direct impact on gold, this surely will result in gold edging lower. Correlation is questionable, but deny it or not, it's still there.
  • #10,227
  • Edited 8:20am Sep 17, 2011 7:55am | Edited 8:20am
It's been like a Village Idiots' Convention here recently so let's try and get a bit of perspective on SI Daily......

Three forks - red schiff and blue Andrews' are both upforks and yellow mod schiff is a downfork. Their A's are marked.

To me the market is still in uptrend (since May we've technically had higher highs and higher lows ) and until some upforks are violated. Admittedly there was an intraday breach of the blue LP but crucially the close was above the LP and above the red quartile. The yellow downfork has given one UP rejection, but too early to say it is properly validated - am waiting to see what happens on a retest.

It is still a time to remain cautious both ways IMO but very possible to pick up good positions with tight stops. Interesting week ahead.

beeb

PS could people PLEASE try and give reasons with their statements as required by the thread rules

edit Please note I am NOT making predictions about price - merely pointing out the tools whereby such a decision could be made.......
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  • #10,228
  • Sep 17, 2011 7:59am Sep 17, 2011 7:59am
Quoting beeb
It's been like a Village Idiots' Convention here recently so let's try and get a bit of perspective on SI Daily......

Three forks - red schiff and blue Andrews' are both upforks and yellow mod schiff is a downfork. Their A's are marked.

To me the market is still in uptrend until some upforks are violated. Admittedly there was an intraday breach of the blue LP but crucially the close was above the LP. The yellow downfork has given one UP rejection, but too early to say it is properly validated - am waiting to see what happens on a retest.

It...
Agree With You ..short sell at them moment is not a wise decision.post my charts after some hours
Trading by EA
  • #10,229
  • Sep 17, 2011 11:41am Sep 17, 2011 11:41am
These charts have worth to say

but the 1825 must be broken have to might be push us to again 1900 level
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Trading by EA
  • #10,230
  • Edited 1:42pm Sep 17, 2011 1:22pm | Edited 1:42pm
Quoting ruffryders
Hi guys, hope everyone is having a good weekend. Here's what I got on gold H4 and H3. I'd be looking to short sell.

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/3...sd17092011.png
GC 240 min

I think it gives better perspective if you link the lows with a line - note what happens when you continue the puce line from 1 to 2.

Also when you clone the same line to 3.

Price also has the green line of resistance to overcome.

Interesting times.



beeb
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  • #10,231
  • Edited 3:06pm Sep 17, 2011 1:33pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting beeb
GC 240 min

I think it gives better perspective if you link the lows with a line - note what happens when you continue the puce line from 1 to 2.

Also when you clone the same line to 3.

Price also has the green line of resistance to overcome.

Interesting times.



beeb

In fact if you want to look at it in more detail it appears that price has already tested the underside of the puce line on three bars (where the red arrows are) before falling away, and then approaching it and reacting away from it again less forcibly, before bursting strongly back through the line (where the blue arrow is).

Some might say that that was indicative of strength......Have to wait and see what happens when and if there is a retest of that line

beeb
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  • #10,232
  • Sep 18, 2011 4:04am Sep 18, 2011 4:04am
Well, looking @ H3 XAUUSD chart, we can see a triangle breakout already did happen, now PA did a retest of the breakout point and upon rejection will proceed lower. That's what I see and plan to trade. I'll put a pending short @ weak level something like 1797 and SL just below recent high and TP @ 1703-1707.

What's your proposed gameplan on gold then for this week?

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/7...92011break.png
  • #10,233
  • Sep 18, 2011 4:37am Sep 18, 2011 4:37am
Quoting ruffryders
Well, looking @ H3 XAUUSD chart, we can see a triangle breakout already did happen, now PA did a retest of the breakout point and upon rejection will proceed lower. That's what I see and plan to trade. I'll put a pending short @ weak level something like 1797 and SL just below recent high and TP @ 1703-1707.

What's your proposed gameplan on gold then for this week?

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/7...92011break.png

Well, it still looks to me that by not drawing your lines at the highs or lows of bars you are getting some inexact inferences - but that's my style, you do what you want

I don't use 180min charts but have redrawn my 240min to fit your timescale. I still don't see any difference from my analysis above.

As to what I intend to do - well on this timeframe IMHO it all comes down to what happens in relation to the puce and green lines. The energy point circled in blue is fairly close and could be an area to watch. If price should move below the puce and then retouch the green from underneath and fall away then lower prices could be expected. If however it breaches the green and retests the green or puce from above then price could be off to the races. I'm not a clairvoyant so I won't predict which will happen

I'll do what I always do which is to watch shorter timeframes 10 min and 20 min to give me a lead into longer timeframes. It does look like it may be shaping up to be a fairly pivotal week.....

beeb
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  • #10,234
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:41am Sep 18, 2011 6:41am
FYI, might be worth a read (source: KITCO)

Options: Volatility was lower and call skew was largely unchanged on a $30 rally. From an options perspective, this pattern is more bearish than bullish. It suggests that even if gold doesn’t sell off, volatility isn’t likely to perform in a rally. October options were also liquidated heavily. While there is still a lot of long-term interest in this market, a rally seems increasingly unlikely to manifest in the near term. Conclusion: Bearish

Technical: Gold traded as low as 1765 in the overnight session, before rallying to close up $30 on the day. Despite the rally, the technical outlook remains bearish. Not only did gold fail to overcome resistance at the 20-day moving average (1827), the relative strength indicator and slow stochastics are both weaker on the day, suggesting the rally lacks staying power. While a settlement above 1850 could lead us to reconsider the possibility of a reversal, we think gold is likely to trade lower before establishing new highs. Our first target to the downside is the 50-day moving average at 1724, followed by the hammer bottom at 1705 and the 100-day moving average near 1625. Conclusion: Bearish
  • #10,235
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:44am Sep 18, 2011 6:44am
I read loads of stuff over the weekend but Kitco and Nadler are not included....



beeb
  • #10,236
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:50am Sep 18, 2011 6:50am
Quoting beeb
I read loads of stuff over the weekend but Kitco and Nadler are not included....



beeb
Good for you man! This is actually from FMX-connect, which is one of the primary sources for information on the options markets for the commods.
  • #10,237
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:53am Sep 18, 2011 6:53am
Quoting patguchi
entered at 1786. when it reached 1796 i put a trailing stop and added another. when both positions reached 1806 i put a trailing stop on the second and added a third. when they reached 1812, trailing stop on the third and added a fourth ... then trailing stop when it reached 1821.

all trailing stops were triggered.. 3 at profit 1 at breakeven (at 1812.50)

added another position at 1809. then added another at 1806.

well done. but for some reason i doubt you actually took those trades....


WARNING

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE THINKING THAT GOLD IS STILL IN AN UPTREND, I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU.

MY OPINION IS GOLD HAS REACHED A PEAK AND THAT IT IS ON ITS WAY DOWN. DEFINATELY BY THE END OF THE YEAR YOU WILL SEE GOLD TURNING AROUND AND HEADING SOUTH. A MAJOR CHANGE OF DIRECTION. WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A LONG WHILE. I HAVE CONCLUDED THIS FOLLOWING SOME RESEARCH I DID RECENTLY. I JUST THOUGHT I SHARE IT WITH YOU GUYS.

I HAVE ALWAYS HAD A BULLISH SENTIMENT ON GOLD. BUT IT IS TIME TO RE-THINK AND BE REALITIC AND SEE THE WIDER PICTURE. UNLESS GOLD OVERCOMES THE HIGHEST HIGH THEN NOT MUCH BULLISH DOING. EVEN IF IT DOES PASS ABOVE THE HIGHEST HIGH, A MAJOR DOWNTURN IS IMMINENT.

SO BE CAREFUL WHEN TAKING LONGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A LONGER TERM TREND TRADER LIKE MYSELF.

ITS ABOUT TIME I CLOSED MY LONG I HAVE HAD OPEN SINCE MARCH. JUST WAITING FOR THE RIGHT SIGNAL.







  • #10,238
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:59am Sep 18, 2011 6:59am
Quoting whatfx
well done. but for some reason i doubt you actually took those trades....


WARNING

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE THINKING THAT GOLD IS STILL IN AN UPTREND, I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU.

[size=3]MY OPINION IS GOLD HAS REACHED A PEAK AND THAT IT IS ON ITS WAY DOWN. DEFINATELY BY THE END OF THE YEAR YOU WILL SEE GOLD TURNING AROUND AND HEADING SOUTH. A MAJOR CHANGE OF DIRECTION. WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A LONG WHILE. I HAVE CONCLUDED THIS FOLLOWING SOME RESEARCH I DID RECENTLY....
And your name is probably Jim Simons or John Paulson, right?
That's prolly why you put everything in caps then.
  • #10,239
  • Edited 8:02am Sep 18, 2011 7:29am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting lilpip
this week watching how the 1912 - 1936 (higher timeframe) area responds.
Personally I would not be adding longs til this area is resolved as the extended yearly highs (1936) area would normally rotate back at least to sept.monthly trend guide .
Keeping an eye on the trends.
A heads up to the levels posted at the begining of sept.
monthly trend guide 1757 area was achieved and longs from this area will be of less risk and even if she dropped south one could rescue and exit on the retest of resistance.
Depending on 1830 response It may be a good time for profits for those still holding shorts from 1912-36 area.
If the banks can maintain control of there normal manipulation its normal pattern would be not to break through 1936 area this year but one would look to at least the last quarter for a surge up or the 1st quarters support of next year.
However we take it a day,week and month at a time.
Sept. close should be interesting, bias is up from 1757 and lets see what 1830 has to say about that as bias was down on the fri. daily.
monthly pivot
1974
1757
1537
weekly
1909
1830
1751
mon.daily
1859
1810-15
1759
  • #10,240
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:37am Sep 18, 2011 7:37am
Quoting ruffryders
And your name is probably Jim Simons or John Paulson, right?
That's prolly why you put everything in caps then.

indeed, little man.

perhaps when the market does head south, you will come back and eat your words. it has already started heading south btw albeit short term.

but hey, iam just stating an opinion, following a research i did. who knows, i could be wrong.

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