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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,001
  • Edited 10:04pm Sep 12, 2011 9:50pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting Pbh
Good night, does anyone think it's wise to buy XAUUSD when London session starts? I just don't see any fundamentals back up
Fundamentals are all you have in terms of logical reasons to buy gold at this stage.

Will institutions cool their dollar buying and switch to gold is the question in my mind.

Has gold hit its historical high? No.

Is it irrational to buy now and assume it will go up? Yes.

I still think we have another rally before any massive correction unfolds, but I could be entirely wrong. If I had to choose between another leg up in gold prices, or the stock market before we know what's going to happen with Greece - well...

It all depends on whether you think a bear market is beginning now. I think not given the uncertainty - until they decide whether Greece will unravel and restructure or kick the can down the road.

Either way, the USD will not go on appreciating forever with sustained low interest rates. Gold profit taking also may have ended for a round.

If there was any reason for gold to continue rising in June/July, I don't really see what has changed apart from some kind of psychological assumption about the $2000 level being overpriced.
  • #10,002
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:53pm Sep 12, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting Wheels
Fundamentals are all you have in terms of logical reasons to buy gold at this stage.

Will institutions cool their dollar buying and switch to gold is the question in my mind.

Has gold hit its historical high? No.

Is it irrational to buy now and assume it will go up? Yes.

I still think we have another rally before any massive correction unfolds, but I could be entirely wrong. If I had to choose between another leg up in gold prices, or the stock market before we know what's going to happen with Greece - well...

It all depends on whether...
But if it does drop, I will be ready and waiting.
  • #10,003
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:36pm Sep 12, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting realjumper
That's true, but it isn't what I was meaning. I'm not denying that gold has, and always will hold value. I'm saying, that the bull run is now uncertain, because the situation we now have in front of us is also uncertain. There is example to follow with the possible exception of the 1930's depression....but then there was no Euro in the 1930's, so as I was saying, there is no example to follow.
What makes this gold bull run uncertain? I'd love to hear the case for this and I hope it is more than an oscillator is saying over bought.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #10,004
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:46pm Sep 12, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
What makes this gold bull run uncertain? I'd love to hear the case for this and I hope it is more than an oscillator is saying over bought.
Your sarcasm is noted.

The bull run continuing is uncertain, and it's plain to see, until the all time high has been taken out. It's a very basic and simple concept
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,005
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:48pm Sep 12, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting Wheels
Fundamentals are all you have in terms of logical reasons to buy gold at this stage.

Will institutions cool their dollar buying and switch to gold is the question in my mind.

Has gold hit its historical high? No.

Is it irrational to buy now and assume it will go up? Yes.

I still think we have another rally before any massive correction unfolds, but I could be entirely wrong. If I had to choose between another leg up in gold prices, or the stock market before we know what's going to happen with Greece - well...

It all depends on whether...
Thank you, but I mean. After those big fundamental rallies. When we see this kind of consolidation (Now it's between 1920 and 1700 USD per Gold ounce) I like trading gold for 500 pips, 300, maybe 1000 per trade looking at 4H charts. But, most of the time I'm based on fundametals. I know it is likely to come up maybe early tomorrow (EST), or at night because of US news that are expected lower than their last reading.
But I had not tried fully technical, that's why I asked. Thank you
  • #10,006
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:03pm Sep 12, 2011 11:03pm
Posiible to short @ 1850ish?
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  • #10,007
  • Edited 11:23pm Sep 12, 2011 11:12pm | Edited 11:23pm
Quoting realjumper
Your sarcasm is noted.

The bull run continuing is uncertain, and it's plain to see, until the all time high has been taken out. It's a very basic and simple concept
Ah, I see the difference now. You're looking at a 4H chart and I'm looking at a weekly chart zoomed all the way out showing the bull run from 2000 on. I'm looking at a Secular Trend and you're looking at an Intraday Trend.

Talking about trends is completely useless, unless you mention a timeframe. You maybe right that the 4H trend is changing (i.e. YOUR bull run ending).
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #10,008
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:26pm Sep 12, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Ah, I see the difference now. You're looking at a 4H chart and I'm looking at a weekly chart zoomed all the way out showing the bull run from 2000 on. I'm looking at a Secular Trend and you're looking at an Intraday Trend.
Doesn't matter a great deal what you're looking at.....the bull run is uncertain until the the all time high gets taken out.

Gold, like anything else, won't go up forever. Are we at the top? Who knows? We'll know the answer to that question in the coming days and weeks. Meantime, it's true that my trading is Intraday, but the trend is important to me on my timeframes, not just the H4.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,009
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:36pm Sep 12, 2011 11:36pm
Quoting realjumper
Doesn't matter a great deal what you're looking at.....the bull run is uncertain until the the all time high gets taken out.
Fair enough. It's kind of like when gold hit 1000 and dropped to 700. It took about 83 weeks to break that high. I guess that period could have been considered an uncertain time by some definitions, not me though since the fundamentals for a bullish market were (are) still in play. Anyways, none of this really pertains to day trading, this is more geared to physical holdings and/or long term trading.

EDIT: You answered my original question by the way, which is basically the bull run (secular / market) is over because of a 4H pattern. Not saying you ain't right, it could very well be true. I was hoping to hear some fundamental reasons, since I have yet to hear a solid fundamental reason(s) for the Gold Bull Run to be over.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #10,010
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:42pm Sep 12, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Fair enough. It's kind of like when gold hit 1000 and dropped to 700. It took about 83 weeks to break that high. I guess that period could have been considered an uncertain time by some definitions, not me though since the fundamentals for a bullish market were (are) still in play. Anyways, none of this really pertains to day trading, this is more geared to physical holdings and/or long term trading.
No, the "period" wasn't uncertain, just the continuation of the bull run was uncertain.

As you say though, this is more concerning the physical holding rather than what most of the rest of us here are doing. I am envious of India though, who bought 20 tonnes at $1042 a couple of years back.......nice purchase!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,011
  • Sep 13, 2011 12:20am Sep 13, 2011 12:20am
Quoting LasVahGoose
EDIT: You answered my original question by the way, which is basically the bull run (secular / market) is over because of a 4H pattern. Not saying you ain't right, it could very well be true. I was hoping to hear some fundamental reasons, since I have yet to hear a solid fundamental reason(s) for the Gold Bull Run to be over.
I just noticed your "EDIT"....which I will now answer.

I didn't say the bull run is over because of a 4H pattern. I said the continuation of the bull run is uncertain until the record high is taken out.....irrespective of the timeframe.

I'm not sure why you were 'hoping to hear some fundamental reasons.......for the gold bull run to be over'......because nowhere and at no time I have I said that the gold bull run is over.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,012
  • Sep 13, 2011 12:59am Sep 13, 2011 12:59am
"uncertain" yet still 1830 USD / ozt

not so uncertain> A ten + year run doesn't end in a day.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #10,013
  • Sep 13, 2011 1:02am Sep 13, 2011 1:02am
Quoting XTrade
"uncertain" yet still 1830 USD / ozt

not so uncertain> A ten + year run doesn't end in a day.
sigh......I NEVER SAID that bull run was over.

Until the record high is taken out.....continuation of the bull run is uncertain. The pa has been rejected twice already
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,014
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:07am Sep 13, 2011 3:07am
I was just wondering. Since the gold has such tremenduous run for a few years. How can we decide if the trend has ended. Any drop in price is seen as peanuts. I felt technical chart can no longer be used to deem
as a reversal anymore. I guess only those who are good in fundamental
can actually catch the reversal. That no one is interested in buying anymore. gold is has a unique chart of its own.
  • #10,015
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:22am Sep 13, 2011 3:22am
Quoting Pbh
Thank you, but I mean. After those big fundamental rallies. When we see this kind of consolidation (Now it's between 1920 and 1700 USD per Gold ounce) I like trading gold for 500 pips, 300, maybe 1000 per trade looking at 4H charts. But, most of the time I'm based on fundametals. I know it is likely to come up maybe early tomorrow (EST), or at night because of US news that are expected lower than their last reading.
But I had not tried fully technical, that's why I asked. Thank you
Allow me to be the first to admit that London has not been good for gold. I had expected some kind of limited rally consistent with the previous session. Some resistance at 1800 again.
  • #10,016
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:26am Sep 13, 2011 3:26am
Quoting Wheels
Allow me to be the first to admit that London has not been good for gold. I had expected some kind of limited rally consistent with the previous session. Some resistance at 1800 again.
Excuse the earlier response.
  • #10,017
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:45am Sep 13, 2011 4:45am
Quoting GoldenDude
lol your post makes me laugh ! a lot!
Its nice to hear that at least some people here like my posts

Quote
i even purchased more at 1840!

In a different time and place I would have said "I wish you luck" but I fear this time we are standing on opposite sides and doing so would not be appropriate.

May the better trader win, the market shall be the judge.
  • #10,018
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:25am Sep 13, 2011 5:25am
Hello Traders,

From a Technical point of view Gold and Silver prices is testing an important Key Level, and, depending on the Price Action, could go far more south...

From a Fundamental point of view the Euro Economic concerns have helped the Buck to gain ground in front of the other currencies, and to lower the risc appetite of investors, who look for safe heavens in US $ and Jpy... But Gold and Silver Bulls could Burst any time, and a rally could take over.

I am neutral in both Precious Metals for the Momment.
Check out my charts and tell me what You think:

To Your Success,
Doctortyby
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  • #10,019
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:37am Sep 13, 2011 5:37am
Here's one for all you Andrews Pitchfork fans.....be aware that pitchforks are best used in trending markets......
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #10,020
  • Edited 7:35am Sep 13, 2011 7:20am | Edited 7:35am
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Noteworthy technicals on Silver:

For those who've ever used Murrey Math, on the weekly we've come under the 7/8th Octave.

Downward trendline from the $47 area.

You can also see price bounced down from the edge of a fib. spiral. On lower TF's, I have found price bounces off these levels with default settings.

Don't see these exact same technicals on gold, so that's what makes me hesitant to take any trade. We could see consolidation until the for a while until the down trendline comes into play. Will wait and see how this plays out.
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