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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #9,921
  • Sep 10, 2011 7:42pm Sep 10, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
One last point before I go back to enjoying my weekend and that is you and many others point to the fact that everyone they know don't talk of Gold, let alone own it.

It is at $1850 freakin' dollars an once. 3/4 of the worlds population doesn't even have $1850 in their pocket to feed themselves. Of the rest (besides the weathy and super-weathy) most are living paycheck to paycheck and might have a mutual fund or two and some Gold - especially in China and most especially in India.

So Gold has a very limited buying pool to pick from. That probably...
Excellent point man, but even considering that it's being manipulated by a very very small group of people, GOLD will stay bullish for long time. No matter that the very small group of people could WIN TRILLIONS by letting it fall like a rollercoaster. They still want GOLD to go NORTH for a very long time.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #9,922
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:20am Sep 11, 2011 3:20am
Silver looks like it's winding up for a big break. I see it in a channel, between 50% (lining up with $41) and 61.8 fibs and below a descending trendline.

Given the recent trend direction my bias is bullish for this one although it does need to get above that descending line... A breakout to the upside could be very nice. A downside breakout will hurt me somewhat as I have a long position held over the weekend which is a bit underwater..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Anything can happen.
  • #9,923
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:22am Sep 11, 2011 5:22am
Quoting ddinnov
Silver looks like it's winding up for a big break. I see it in a channel, between 50% (lining up with $41) and 61.8 fibs and below a descending trendline.

Given the recent trend direction my bias is bullish for this one although it does need to get above that descending line... A breakout to the upside could be very nice. A downside breakout will hurt me somewhat as I have a long position held over the weekend which is a bit underwater..

Check out the SI daily chart that I originally posted in comment #9533 and now viewable as a copy in post #9534.

Also as a matter of general interest it might be worth listening to this interview which I think covers many relevant areas extremely well:

http://www.financialsense.com/financ...to-commodities

beeb
  • #9,924
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:59am Sep 11, 2011 5:59am
Quoting beeb
Check out the SI daily chart that I originally posted in comment #9533 and now viewable as a copy in post #9534.

Also as a matter of general interest it might be worth listening to this interview which I think covers many relevant areas extremely well:

http://www.financialsense.com/financ...to-commodities

beeb
Thanks beeb
Anything can happen.
  • #9,925
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:14am Sep 11, 2011 9:14am
I am going to short silver now, and I hope it all plays out like below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,926
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:09am Sep 11, 2011 10:09am
Quoting 7bit
I am going to short silver now, and I hope it all plays out like below:
And your reasons why to short Silver?
  • #9,927
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:33am Sep 11, 2011 10:33am
Quoting SunTrader
And your reasons why to short Silver?
Did you see the chart I posted?
  • #9,928
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:13am Sep 11, 2011 11:13am
Quoting 7bit
Did you see the chart I posted?
i personally disagree, can't see that much of a drop at this moment (due to news about greece, G7 talks disappointing, stark's resignation, and a long etc!)

however, that is my personal opinion and i could easily be wrong
  • #9,929
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:23am Sep 11, 2011 11:23am
Quoting 7bit
Did you see the chart I posted?
Have you given up on the head and shoulders formation in gold that you "firmly believed in" in post #9591?

beeb
  • #9,930
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:44am Sep 11, 2011 11:44am
Quoting 7bit
Did you see the chart I posted?
Obviously. So?
  • #9,931
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:50am Sep 11, 2011 11:50am
Quoting beeb
Have you given up on the head and shoulders formation in gold
I don't give up. The next one will come. Currently silver looks very promising (on all time frames) but gold should drop too if this happens. (the G/S ratio will break upwards soon, so silver will drop much harder than gold).

The dollar is going to rise sky high soon and fast (Liquidity crisis) and this will be the final trigger to bring all these bubbles down. Even Gold.

If you have parked your savings in physical gold and silver then NOW the long awaited time to make use of it has come and you should sell it now or you will regret it for the rest of your life.
  • #9,932
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:54am Sep 11, 2011 11:54am
Quoting 7bit
I don't give up. The next one will come. Currently silver looks very promising (on all time frames) but gold should drop too if this happens. (the G/S ratio will break upwards soon, so silver will drop much harder than gold).

The dollar is going to rise sky high soon and fast (Liquidity crisis) and this will be the final trigger to bring all these bubbles down. Even Gold.

Absolutely agree that the top will come one day - but it must be getting quite expensive waiting for it....



beeb
  • #9,933
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:00pm Sep 11, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting beeb
Absolutely agree that the top will come one day - but it must be getting quite expensive waiting for it....
The waiting has finally come to an end (and it has not been expensive at all, it was actually quite profitable). From here on just turn your chart upside down and continue trading like before and everything will be fine.
  • #9,934
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:18pm Sep 11, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting 7bit

If you have parked your savings in physical gold and silver then NOW the long awaited time to make use of it has come and you should sell it now or you will regret it for the rest of your life.

Given the success of your last prediction in post #9591 I think these comments should come not only with a bucket of salt but a Wealth Warning for anybody that aimlessly follows your advice.

Anybody that claims to KNOW what will happen is either a liar or a fool or both and only beaten by those that follow them.

Nobody can predict the markets - gold could move $200 EITHER WAY tomorrow. All you can do is use technical analysis to give yourself the best possible chance of a successful trade.

Far better to use smaller timeframes to give you a leg into what is happening in bigger timeframes as shown in my chart in post # 10018

I wish you good fortune but please don't instruct others what to do with their money on the basis of YOUR technical analysis

beeb
  • #9,935
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:22pm Sep 11, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting SunTrader
Obviously. So?
The fundamental analysts tell me that the Dollar is going to rise much higher because a severe liquidity crisis is unfolding. Silver was already at the top of the channel and is already on its way down. The breakout of last September has exactly reached the projected size if this move (around 50) and a retest of the breakout level at 20$ would be perfectly ok now. 20$ is an absolutely *reasonable* target from looking at this chart, it does not need do do any unusual moves and not even break any trend to get there (prices bounce between channel borders all the time) and then at 20$ we will have to see how it behaves on this lower channel line, maybe it can even break down and drop further (somewhere below 10$ should be the real long term trend line). Fair price of Silver is commonly estimated below 10$ anyways.

Additionally there is a pattern in the weekly G/S Ratio that suggests that this ratio might break upwards any moment now and this also supports my bearish view on silver.
  • #9,936
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:24pm Sep 11, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting 7bit
Fair price of Silver is commonly estimated below 10$ anyways.

By whom?

beeb

PS have a listen to the interview linked in post # 10048
  • #9,937
  • Edited 12:52pm Sep 11, 2011 12:42pm | Edited 12:52pm
Quoting beeb
Given the success of your last prediction in post #9591 I think these comments should come not only with a bucket of salt but a Wealth Warning for anybody that aimlessly follows your advice.
#9591 was not a prediction, it was an enumeration of possible scenarios. Go back and read it again.

The advice to sell Silver and Gold now for a huge profit cannot harm anybody, nobody has ever gone bankrupt from taking an exorbitant profit. The advice is to take profit before its too late. The advice is to avoid being the greatest fool at the end of the chain of greater fools.

I did not tell people to open huge leveraged paper shorts now. I said its time to reduce your oversized PM long exposure now (especially the ones who have 100% of their savings in physical, like the tinfoil hats from zerohedge and their herd of sheep, they should sell it) because it might get really ugly soon and then it will be too late.
  • #9,938
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:43pm Sep 11, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting beeb
By whom?
By me. And also by many others.
  • #9,939
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:50pm Sep 11, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting 7bit
#9591 was not a prediction, it was an enumeration of possible scenarios. Go back and read it again.

The advice to sell Silver and Gold now for a huge profit cannot harm anybody, nobody has ever gone bankrupt from taking an exorbitant profit. The advise is to take profit before its too late. The advise is to avoid being the greatest fool at the end of the chain of greater fools.

I did not tell people to open huge leveraged paper shorts now. I said its time to reduce your oversized PM long exposure now (especially the ones who have 100% of their...

Sorry, but in # 9591 you said you "firmly believe" in the now obliterated h and s and there is no way one can construe "If you have parked your savings in physical gold and silver then NOW the long awaited time to make use of it has come and you should sell it now or you will regret it for the rest of your life......" from 10056 as anything other than an instruction.

On ignore from here in



beeb
  • #9,940
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:56pm Sep 11, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting beeb
On ignore from here in
Thank you.

PS: This phase of a bubble is called "denial", but it seems you are a bit early, this phase usually only begins after the first 20% drop does not recover.
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