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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #9,821
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:43am Sep 7, 2011 11:43am
PA now at 18dma (1824).
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #9,822
  • Sep 7, 2011 12:51pm Sep 7, 2011 12:51pm
http://upic.me/i/dh/7-9-255423-36-07.png




1. sell +-1827 sl +-1835 tp +-1780 +-1763
  • #9,823
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:35pm Sep 7, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting lilpip
tue. daily highs achieved @ 1921 with her rotation back to daily trend guide 1861.
wed. gold daily
1923
1868
1813
silver followed to the 41.42 area with a move up from there.
wed. we will see how she responds to 42.00-25 area.
43.28
42.13
40.98
Those shorting from wed. highs have had a pretty good scalp or continue to hold shorts till proven wrong.
drop below daily trend guide 1868 and weekly trend guide 1832 with close at daily lows 1817 is noted.
will be watching price action between weekly pivot 1832 and daily pivot 1843 for direction.
silvers drop below daily and weekly trend guide 42.00 -42.13 and bounce up from monthly pivot 40.25 is noted.
  • #9,824
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:52pm Sep 7, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting redbull
http://upic.me/i/dh/7-9-255423-36-07.png




1. sell +-1827 sl +-1835 tp +-1780 +-1763



lets hope for the best
  • #9,825
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:59pm Sep 7, 2011 4:59pm
Few things I've noticed:

1. H1 chart shows possible downtrend for some period. The price is below 200EMA.

2. H4 chart shows that 100SMA is possible short-term resistance (~1825) while 200EMA could be target (~1770), shorter-term again.

3. The price today stopped dropping (at 1793) close to 61.8 Fib level (drawn from 1702 to the newest high), and at almost exactly where the D1 30SMA is.
Price usually gets lifted somewhere around 2/3 the distance between 30SMA and 50SMA on D1 chart (closer to 50SMA), which is currently ~1757.

Just few facts that I've seen, pointing that some more bear action might take place. Currently unable to upload charts as they're messy with all the indicators, trend lines, PPs and Fibs I've drawn, and I'm a bit short on time to clean it up. Might upload later, but you get the point anyway.
  • #9,826
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:09pm Sep 7, 2011 5:09pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: G4HR.jpg Size: 162 KB


Looks like we are close to the lower trend line of the current 4HR price movement. Would like to see another touch of that line before covering and going long. Otherwise comfortable going long here with a stop at the lower boson around 1773.70.

Level's I'm watching:

1818.24: If it can stay above this will go long

1818.24 - 1808.35: consolidation zone don't enter here.

1808.35: price below this level and I'm not taking any position
  • #9,827
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:35pm Sep 7, 2011 5:35pm
Put enough MA's on chart, some are bound to be hit at some point in time (and price).
  • #9,828
  • Sep 7, 2011 5:43pm Sep 7, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting SunTrader
Put enough MA's on chart, some are bound to be hit.
It's 30SMA, 50SMA and 100SMA that I watch for SRs and 200EMA as trend teller.

Yes, indeed - the price is always going to hit some of them on some time frame, but it's the same with forks, pivot points and some others then.

But the thing is to see how the price reacted to them in the past. Anyway, I was hoping this might prove valuable to someone, so I posted it. If you think it's stupid, you should ignore the post.
  • #9,829
  • Sep 7, 2011 7:23pm Sep 7, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting Icosahedron
.............If you think it's stupid, you should ignore the post.
I don't think it is stupid, just of very limited value.

But I'm in the minority (the way I like it) since the use of MA's is very, very common around Forex Factory.

Might I suggest though, that when using MA's on an intraday basis, they should be in length related to minutes/hours of the trading day - rather than some arbitrary number such as 50 or 100.

An example would be a 12 or 24 period MA on a H1 chart or a 60 or 120 period on a M1 chart.

But I have to admit even used in this way MA''s stil don't offer much to me. They lag and they "average" out past data. It baffles me why anyone would want to look at it rather than the data (i.e. price) itself??

If they work for you that is all that matters.
  • #9,830
  • Sep 7, 2011 8:13pm Sep 7, 2011 8:13pm
BULL again when TOKYO opened.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-usd-h4.gif Size: 31 KB
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #9,831
  • Sep 7, 2011 8:18pm Sep 7, 2011 8:18pm
Which means gold can go to 1850-60 point?

Want to make a position, but still not yet predicted since it can be go even deeper for correction
  • #9,832
  • Sep 7, 2011 8:38pm Sep 7, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting scfx
Bought Gold this morning on 1 hour ent at 1882.41.

Trend still in tack some selling on open, with tail on bar to support buyers in what looks like now a simple correction to resume move up. 1st Target 1900

now going to leave it to the market.......

scfx
1Hour trades.

above buy was closed at first target, just over 1900....

Sold yesterday in the lower high range that was bouncing off the roof at 1883, but got out midway as i lost internet, picked up $30.

Taken a buy this morning @ 1826.96 price has good support off 1810 area with a strong move out of the lower high range off yesterdays low. First Target 1867.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #9,833
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:31pm Sep 7, 2011 11:31pm
guys i dont mean to be offensive but this thread has become almost exclusively chart / graph analysis

some of us dont really believe on that, but that the price of gold (and most likely silver) is driven by a response to a series of economic events

i dont believe in fibonacci and other methods. If for example today the unemployment data for the US is real bad, no matter that technique you use, price of gold will go up as a response!

i say this as i would like to encourage more input from other people with different views, not only chart analysis

thanks
  • #9,834
  • Edited Sep 8, 2011 12:14am Sep 7, 2011 11:44pm | Edited Sep 8, 2011 12:14am
Yesterday we had a fake breakout of daily lows @ 1813 as she climb back above by days close and normally she would continue up with her pattern from the days open.
Todays trend guide is 1843 and the bounce down is noted.
We also have the stronger weekly trend and its pivot is 1832 so watch candle formations and pa inbetween on the 5 min. for the tip of hand of direction.
bounce down from silvers daily trendguide 41.74 is also noted.
43.27
41.74
40.27
personally, if longs arnt in from days lows 1813 area I wouldnt add any longs till she shows us the daily direction from 1832-1843.
If she breaks above Id say those holding shorts from yesterday highs have a decision to make.
1907
1843
1779
I just love it when she talks to me and tells me what she thinks. Ok girl I have it noted.
  • #9,835
  • Edited 3:19am Sep 8, 2011 2:47am | Edited 3:19am
Quoting GoldenDude
guys i dont mean to be offensive but this thread has become almost exclusively chart / graph analysis

some of us dont really believe on that, but that the price of gold (and most likely silver) is driven by a response to a series of economic events

i dont believe in fibonacci and other methods. If for example today the unemployment data for the US is real bad, no matter that technique you use, price of gold will go up as a response!

i say this as i would like to encourage more input from other people with different views, not only chart...
fact of the matter is no matter how good you are in interpreting market economic conditions/events price action will always determine if you're right or wrong. price action is fact. charts are based on price action.

if you are so sure that the price of gold will go up every time economic data for the U.S. is really bad then why did gold drop a few days after NFP data came out as a big fat 0?

fact of the matter is most economic data is already anticipated by a lot traders. for example: before the NFP week i make it a point to go long on dips. trading near the release of nfp is very risky as gold often drops or becomes heavily volatile either a few days before or after the release.

my point is trading based on economic data or news alone is very risky for the data may already be priced-in the market. to be a successful trader you need both technical (charts/graphs) and fundamental analysis (economic data).

to have a better understanding on technical analysis think of it this way:

the new nike shoes just came out selling at $200. you thought it was too expensive and decide to wait a few weeks for the price to go down so you can buy it cheaper. a few days later because of demand it raised to $600. now you wished you bought it when it was $200 only. because the price is now too high you decided not to buy it anymore. the problem is that you really want to buy it but you also believe that it will never go back to 200%. then later on you realized that they are now selling it at %23 percent less. do you buy it or wait for it to go lower? then later on it now sells for %38 less. now that's a better bargain. what if the price is now %62 percent less with limited supplies and the demand is still high? would you be more convinced to buy it at that price? do you think other people would be more convinced to buy it at that price?

that's fibonacci values for you. it can help tell you if you're buying something at a bargain when prices are constantly moving
  • #9,836
  • Sep 8, 2011 3:16am Sep 8, 2011 3:16am
Quoting patguchi
fact of the matter is no matter how good you are in interpreting market economic conditions/events price action will always determine if you're right or wrong. price action is fact. charts are based on price action.

if you are so sure that the price of gold will go up every time economic data for the U.S. is really bad then why did gold drop a few days after NFP data came out as a big fat 0?

fact of the matter most economic data is already anticipated by a lot traders. for example: before the NFP week i make it a point to go long on dips. trading...
Fundamentals + technical PA is my chosen strategy. There's no question that fibs play a part in entries, stop placement and trade management along with other support resistance, round numbers, trendlines, MAs etc.

I quite like the idea of getting ageneral idea of a movement from fundamental data then using the charts to execute the trade as optimally as possible.

Back on topic - I had a good day trading gold using silver as a leading indicator yesterday, hope it keeps up today. I'm long both with possible 1900/43.00 in mind

Green pips to all!
Anything can happen.
  • #9,837
  • Sep 8, 2011 3:34am Sep 8, 2011 3:34am
Quoting GoldenDude
guys i dont mean to be offensive but this thread has become almost exclusively chart / graph analysis

some of us dont really believe on that, but that the price of gold (and most likely silver) is driven by a response to a series of economic events

i dont believe in fibonacci and other methods. If for example today the unemployment data for the US is real bad, no matter that technique you use, price of gold will go up as a response!

i say this as i would like to encourage more input from other people with different views, not only chart analysis

thanks...
I have to agree with you here.
But there is a difference in how you trade. If you go for rather short trades from day to day, sure you can use some charts and stuff.
But if you trade with very long positions, basically gold is always going up.
If your platform supports it, set it to for example weeks and take a look at the last few years. You'll see it's always going up, up, and up.
Of course some dips here and there, but the largest I could see is about $300.
And yes, lately it's going up really fast (and could also drop down more) since it's more in the news and trading gold is now accessible for "small" traders who invest just a couple of houndreds in their account, but still, it's a fact that gold will go up in the long run.
That's also why I'm holding my buy positions (even though they're negative right now).
It's much more likely to go above let's say 2000 than below 1500.
  • #9,838
  • Sep 8, 2011 5:28am Sep 8, 2011 5:28am
my first ever post on gold in this forum. I love this instrument and can trade in and out n number of times in a day. well here is my analysis for the day.

Short positions below 1845.56 (day high) with a stop above 1865

the first target should be 1800 which if broken should take the price to 1770

if the resistance is taken out above 1865 then we should see a new high.

this is intraday/short term trade should be taken with a very strict stop loss!!! its a trading day with gazillion news events.
  • #9,839
  • Sep 8, 2011 6:05am Sep 8, 2011 6:05am
Silver is going great guns at 42.13 now. If it's leading gold again today like yesterday then we could see a breach of the 1839/1840 fibo followed by more upside.
Anything can happen.
  • #9,840
  • Sep 8, 2011 8:44am Sep 8, 2011 8:44am
Quoting skbhatia
my first ever post on gold in this forum. I love this instrument and can trade in and out n number of times in a day. well here is my analysis for the day.

Short positions below 1845.56 (day high) with a stop above 1865

the first target should be 1800 which if broken should take the price to 1770

if the resistance is taken out above 1865 then we should see a new high.

this is intraday/short term trade should be taken with a very strict stop loss!!! its a trading day with gazillion news events.
sell initiated, revising targets to 1830 and 1810
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