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  • #661
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:45am Aug 13, 2011 11:45am
Quoting beeb
OK - let's leave it at that....

thanks anyway

beeb
hahha, tell me what do you want to hear, and will repeat it
  • #662
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:56am Aug 13, 2011 11:56am
Quoting fammira
hahha, tell me what do you want to hear, and will repeat it
OK - well you gave some pretty precise predictions and when I questioned about the analysis for this you have basically said that markets do the opposite of what people expect.....

If I 've got it wrong please tell me...If not, as I said, let's leave it at that...



beeb
  • #663
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:05pm Aug 13, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting beeb
OK - well you gave some pretty precise predictions and when I questioned about the analysis for this you have basically said that markets do the opposite of what people expect.....

If I 've got it wrong please tell me...If not, as I said, let's leave it at that...



beeb
it's not exact
forex market moves according to pending positions

if for example traders are long USDCHF in a big way from 0.90 to 1, players will try to hit the all the possible stops on the downside, and they will push it down more by using news and different triggers if they realize they can make money as traders are still long even at lower levels
when traders lost faith and patience at 0.70 and they cut their losses or they are massively hit by margin calls with quick and huge moves, the market reverses

hope my point is clear now, I have been doing fx for 7 years, I know is not much but if I am still alive and making money it's probably because I have developed such a market reading
  • #664
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:53pm Aug 13, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting fammira
if for example traders are long USDCHF in a big way from 0.90 to 1, players will try to hit the all the possible stops on the downside, and they will push it down more by using news and different triggers if they realize they can make money as traders are still long even at lower levels
when traders lost faith and patience at 0.70 and they cut their losses or they are massively hit by margin calls with quick and huge moves, the market reverses
You're trying to say that the market is mostly trying to cover the actual trend?
And by cover, I mean convince you that it has the opposite trend of the actual.
  • #665
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:53pm Aug 13, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting fammira

hope my point is clear now, I have been doing fx for 7 years, I know is not much but if I am still alive and making money it's probably because I have developed such a market reading

Well you only have another twenty-three years to go to catch me up.....as I said, let's leave it at that.



beeb

edit - reading your replies again, you still haven't given any REASONS for what you said. If you would like to see my reasons for past actions look at this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post4867435
  • #666
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:06pm Aug 13, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Icosahedron
Thanks for the response.
I appreciate your opinion, and I agree that such quick rise in gold price needed some major pullback.

But I just wanted to point out one more thing - I see more and more people and sites forecast the beginning of the downtrend on larger time scales.
Not that I'm saying they might be right with their analyses, but the psychology worries me, because I don't actually know how many people those sites influence and how many people will consider shorting because of those news.

One such example would be http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...own_Trend.html

Do...
sorry - am a bit rushed - try this:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/m...-for-gold.html


beeb
  • #667
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:27pm Aug 13, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting beeb
Well you only have another twenty-three years to go to catch me up.....as I said, let's leave it at that.



beeb

edit - reading your replies again, you still haven't given any REASONS for what you said. If you would like to see my reasons for past actions look at this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post4867435
far from me to compete with pros...

I gave you reasons, but you want to hear something I don't consider in my analysis, I am not a good chartist, your points are interesting, but I don't really understand them deep.

Anyway we agree that we are close to a top, so we play the short side, at least that's something in common
  • #668
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:43pm Aug 13, 2011 1:43pm
Just taking a new long position for xau/usd @ $1725 yesterday, and looking forward for another rally (if possible), after my short position kissed stop loss. Seems that it is positive today.

By the way, do you know any regulated FX brokers (FSA, ASIC, or MAS) that offering positive swap or swap-free account for long / buy xau/usd positions?

At this moment, my brokers have negative swap value and do not offer swap-free account.

Have a nice weekend!
  • #669
  • Edited 2:45pm Aug 13, 2011 2:33pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting fammira
far from me to compete with pros...

I gave you reasons, but you want to hear something I don't consider in my analysis, I am not a good chartist, your points are interesting, but I don't really understand them deep.

Anyway we agree that we are close to a top, so we play the short side, at least that's something in common

Ex-pro lol - I have been trading for myself for a number of years

Yeah - no probs.

I am always interested when people come out with specific predictions to hear what their reasons are.

There were some apparently some concerns on another site about people trading off the back of the unsupported assertions of others. I feel that when people make predictions they should be able to provide solid reasons.

Have a good weekend

beeb
  • #670
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:48pm Aug 13, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting beeb
Ex-pro lol - I have been trading for myself for a number of years

Yeah - no probs.

I am always interested when people come out with specific predictions to hear what their reasons are.

There were some apparently some concerns on another site about people trading off the back of the unsupported assertions of others. I feel that when people make predictions they should be able to provide solid reasons.

Have a good weekend

beeb
yes, but take a move after it happens
EURCHF drops from 1.60 to 1
are you able to explain the reason of such a move based on a chart only?

I have doubts about it, as I have noticed that most of the moves are based on interpretations (and misinterpretations) of news and data release, with the sole aim to wide the price action and earn more money

time frame and horizon can be very different, sentiments can last for minutes or months before changing....otherwise trading would be simple and is not

another example I can make is a drop or a rise after (and often even before) a data release, with a price back to previous level or even moving in the opposite direction one or two hours later (NFP data release is the clearest case)

have a great weekend!
  • #671
  • Edited 5:44pm Aug 13, 2011 5:12pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting fammira
yes, but take a move after it happens
EURCHF drops from 1.60 to 1
are you able to explain the reason of such a move based on a chart only?

I have doubts about it, as I have noticed that most of the moves are based on interpretations (and misinterpretations) of news and data release, with the sole aim to wide the price action and earn more money

time frame and horizon can be very different, sentiments can last for minutes or months before changing....otherwise trading would be simple and is not

another example I can make is a drop or a rise after...

Umm...think you've got this the wrong way around. Prices move and such moves are shown on charts - that's why they're called "charts". Technical analysis attempts to predict likely future movements based on past movements. Prices move for reasons other than what the chart says......All you can get from a chart is a good idea of what may happen, and by eliminating as many imponderables as possible, give your trade the best chance of success....

beeb

edit - since you mentioned it here's a monthly swissie chart - it puts price moves in perspective but IMHO it is wrong to think of such moves being because of the chart.....

http://www.screencast.com/t/w62vJ42z
  • #672
  • Aug 14, 2011 7:15pm Aug 14, 2011 7:15pm
Looking at the graph now, it's getting lower.

Is it going to increase? Or going to decrease to a lower level?

What makes Gold make such a big correction?

Thanks
  • #673
  • Aug 15, 2011 2:15am Aug 15, 2011 2:15am
Conditions changed... even Gold will fall in the next few days, it seems that it will be just small correction, and later we will see 2000$/oz... Only then i see end of Gold bull market, and begin of the bear market... However, while talking about "time prediction" it's very close to "important turn point".
  • #674
  • Aug 15, 2011 2:59am Aug 15, 2011 2:59am
Quoting fammira
it's not exact
forex market moves according to pending positions

if for example traders are long USDCHF in a big way from 0.90 to 1, players will try to hit the all the possible stops on the downside, and they will push it down more by using news and different triggers if they realize they can make money as traders are still long even at lower levels
when traders lost faith and patience at 0.70 and they cut their losses or they are massively hit by margin calls with quick and huge moves, the market reverses

hope my point is clear now, I have...


seconded!
  • #675
  • Aug 15, 2011 3:24am Aug 15, 2011 3:24am
Quoting ph3onix
Conditions changed... even Gold will fall in the next few days, it seems that it will be just small correction, and later we will see 2000$/oz... Only then i see end of Gold bull market, and begin of the bear market... However, while talking about "time prediction" it's very close to "important turn point".
I'm very glad you think that Central Banks will be able to fix inflation, money supply and market jitters....Until then I think I'll follow my charts rather than listening to unsupported predictions of the end of the gold bull



beeb
  • #676
  • Aug 15, 2011 5:27am Aug 15, 2011 5:27am
so u guys are all taking short positions on gold now.

are you guys of consensus market has turned around to the short side for good...
  • #677
  • Aug 15, 2011 6:06am Aug 15, 2011 6:06am
Quoting whatfx
are you guys of consensus market has turned around to the short side for good...
No

beeb
  • #678
  • Aug 15, 2011 7:45am Aug 15, 2011 7:45am
i think gold will be correction for this week
langsung WA aja bro update
  • #679
  • Aug 15, 2011 8:57am Aug 15, 2011 8:57am
well the correction is over and i expect a higher prices in gold and silver from now and till the 22 of AUG

gold to 1812 and silver to 43

take care
  • #680
  • Aug 15, 2011 8:58am Aug 15, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Theo
well the correction is over and i expect a higher prices in gold and silver from now and till the 22 of AUG

gold to 1812 and silver to 43

take care

what have you based your opinions on ?
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