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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #8,821
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:58pm Aug 12, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting patguchi
http://i56.tinypic.com/2moxaxj.png

head and shoulders seen at 1h chart.

neckline at 1740-43

right now pa is back testing that area. current price 1hr and 25 minutes before closing is 1736.60
bullish head and shoulder or bearish head and shoulder i m seeing inverse in short term and reversal in long term but not confirm yet please give more reason
Trading by EA
  • #8,822
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:03pm Aug 12, 2011 1:03pm
see charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold chart.gif Size: 23 KB
Trading by EA
  • #8,823
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:13pm Aug 12, 2011 1:13pm
Quoting mmudasir
bullish head and shoulder or bearish head and shoulder i m seeing inverse in short term and reversal in long term but not confirm yet please give more reason
i'm talking about long term. the first inverse head and shoulder failed. the next one you high lighted needs to break the neckline significantly to for it to be complete

head and shoulders reversal pattern targeting near the highs of 1600 if price closes below 1740. if price closes significantly above 1740-1743 i guess the bigger bearish head and shoulder fails. then we can see the inverse head an shoulders complete moving the PA in the 1770-1740 range. i believe if that happens we can see the pa for the next week to move sideways in that range
  • #8,824
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:44pm Aug 12, 2011 1:44pm
http://www.facebook.com/video/video....68690&comments

please confirm if this is accurate. thanks
  • #8,825
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:54am Aug 13, 2011 12:54am
100% true. great video

Quoting patguchi
http://www.facebook.com/video/video....68690&comments

please confirm if this is accurate. thanks
  • #8,826
  • Edited 3:08am Aug 13, 2011 2:38am | Edited 3:08am
FIRST POST
in the thread at bottom
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032

Go to bottom, there are settlement links for both GC and the miNY QO from there you can find it.

Also read the post! A bunch of good links to help you jump around the thread.

Quoting MaaTini
Thanks a lot for your Answer and your Concerns

and you are absolutely right with any Word

I am doing already some live FX Gold Trades on a Mini Account for learning to deal with "real" Money instead of Papertrading

and thanks for the Link, Mate

but I dont find any Quotes for the Gold Minifuture - QO

by the Way :

just got the Bulletin from IB, that Hongkong Stockexchange has significantly increased the Margin for the Futuretrading
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,827
  • Aug 13, 2011 2:52am Aug 13, 2011 2:52am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032

1745. Not bad.

Finally Gold shed some, the move was a bit overextended. It's not price to worry about, its the TIME.

Also, to those that consider this a big move or reversal, it's not.

Sure, and +10 USD move caught on gold is great, but after rocketing from the low 1600's to 1815/20 in the matter of a week and a half

To be exact = 1608 to 1815, let's not forget the smooth ride from 1500 thru 1600 either. So you have a 300 USD move ie 1500 to 1815 and a 70 USD
"CORRECTION" there was no panic selling either, simply a correction.

People should trade what they see. I know I would rather bank the 300 USD move than trying to pick the top, (usually never works) especially when there is NO CHARTED resistance!!!

Here take a look. Looks like some minor support in the area of 1745 formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold latest push up.GIF Size: 21 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,828
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:21am Aug 13, 2011 3:21am
Quoting xtrade
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222032

1745. Not bad.

Finally gold shed some, the move was a bit overextended. It's not price to worry about, its the time.

Also, to those that consider this a big move or reversal, it's not.

Sure, and +10 usd move caught on gold is great, but after rocketing from the low 1600's to 1815/20 in the matter of a week and a half

to be exact = 1608 to 1815, let's not forget the smooth ride from 1500 thru 1600 either. So you have a 300 usd move ie 1500 to 1815 and a 70 usd
"correction"...
xtrade which level you are considering to end of correction this move
Trading by EA
  • #8,829
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:38am Aug 13, 2011 3:38am
Funny to look back on some old posts and forecasts. Here the charts say everything. The first one updates every time the thread is refreshed the others are static.
Quoting XTrade
Lately Gold has stolen the show...

Silver, whether due to manipulation, major shorts by JPMorrgan, or just being a slug, is not where it should be today. In my view.

However, not to let it be outshined completely by AU - silver has been making up ground the past sessions. http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

Looking at the broader picture - Now, 2 years ago in 08 we traded up to appx 21 USD per troy oz. (london fix actual I believe was 20.92) later crashing all the way back to the $9 area. Half the gains.
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2007.gifhttp://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2008.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2009.gifhttp://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif

The...
REST OF QUOTE (it cuts off)
Xtrade "The $20 mark yet to be breached in 09 or 10 as of yet. If all goes well this mark should be overtaken this year, setting a new multi year high above the 22 area. I would like to say soon, yet looking at the charts, we may have some more time in store.

Breach of 20 was attempted earlier this year, although un-successful, the lows to follow have held so far just above the $15 area. Lower High year to date, as well as much higher low, further suggesting long term bull for AG.

Plenty of trade able hills and valleys in between.
__________________"
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,830
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:41am Aug 13, 2011 3:41am
First stopped by this thread about 2 months ago and I found it really worth reading.. Thank you guys! Nice constructive and informative discussion.
  • #8,831
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:44am Aug 13, 2011 3:44am
I have to look at the charts and do a little study to give you a more accurate answer / rather than a guess.

Tomorrow, I'll be able to do so.

You can see the closing candle was bullish after a sort of bullish hammer/ spinning top on the H4 chart I posted.

Let me revisit this tomorrow, M.


Quoting mmudasir
xtrade which level you are considering to end of correction this move
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,832
  • Edited 4:48am Aug 13, 2011 4:29am | Edited 4:48am
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...s20110812.html

"(Kitco News) -- Deutsche Bank looks for higher gold in the longer term, despite a pullback from this week's record highs. CME Group’s move to raise gold margin requirements “may pollute sentiment” in the short term, the bank says in its weekly commodities report. “However, the longer-term implications of super low interest rates in the U.S., a weak U.S. dollar, a view that central bank holdings in the U.S. dollar are still excessive and ongoing questions over the stability of the financial system will be to drive gold higher.” The bank’s most recent forecasts are $1,630 for the third quarter (down 1.2% from prior forecast), $1,750 for the fourth quarter (unrevised) and $1,750 for the first quarter (down 5.4%). The bank looks for $2,000 gold in the third and fourth quarters of 2012.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News;"

Time will tell.

I am looking for 2000 by years end. I think they are being a tad conservative which is understandable
if not Q1 of 2012
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,833
  • Aug 13, 2011 4:53am Aug 13, 2011 4:53am
I'd like to see Silver topside of 40 again soon, it may need a small dip to do so, or a good old fashioned breakout to flip the mark to support.

As far as now it looks like some artificial holding of the thin line of 40.00 USD

Chart subject to change as it is live.

So to mark it the close was bid 39.070 +.43 cents on the day

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,834
  • Aug 13, 2011 5:09am Aug 13, 2011 5:09am
Quoting XTrade
I have to look at the charts and do a little study to give you a more accurate answer / rather than a guess.

Tomorrow, I'll be able to do so.

You can see the closing candle was bullish after a sort of bullish hammer/ spinning top on the H4 chart I posted.

Let me revisit this tomorrow, M.
ok take your time thanks for this effort
Trading by EA
  • #8,835
  • Edited 5:50am Aug 13, 2011 5:38am | Edited 5:50am
I'm buying in to asian session open, 1729 proved to be a solid support line with 4 tests. However id be careful on potential H1 H&S pattern, which could be in the making, my analysis points to further upside capped @ 1790-1800 early into the week, but then it will be key to watch 1800 area for signs of reversal.

PS: Oh, forgot to say why the 1729-1732 is kinda important. Aside from being monthly R2 it's also quarterly R3, so a pretty strong line for sure.
  • #8,836
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:11am Aug 13, 2011 8:11am
I wanted to write some lines about how I have traded GC over the past few months via forks as I think it shows how effective they can be.

Chart 1 shows the original GC 240 min chart I drew in late March. It's an Unmodified Schiff which I found through trial and error via the three arrowed spike lows along the quartile. I had tried numerous other forks but it wasn't until I found these three that I recognised that the lines were looking in harmony with price. This was confirmed by the NFP spike low at (1) which happened shortly afterwards. This quartile action confirmed to me that the fork was working.

Chart 2 shows numerous confirming touches along the lines of the fork and a number of opportunities for successful trades. The fork really proved it's metal in the green circle at (2) where it caught some very sharp declines to within $1.20.......

Chart 3 shows more confirmations and trades on the quick ascent from (2)

As the ascent was so steep I switched to a 20min chart – as shown in Chart 4. The thing that sold this to me was the gap up which spanned the Median Line and shown in the green circles. Further confirmation came from the circled touches – especially the ascending series of double taps.

Chart 5 shows why I started thinking that price might be topping after a very fast ascent. The green circled bar was the first one to find resistance at a level that had previously been support. That was followed by the red circled bar which didn't even reach the same resistance. It was at that point that I closed my trading longs and drew a downfork with a view to going short. The descent, like the ascent, was very steep and I soon found the yellow fork failing to contain price.

Chart 6 shows the red downfork that replaced the yellow one. Plenty of confirmation touches here as well as price marching lower in both the blue and red forks. The green circle above the lower parallel was a spike low with a high close on the bar (admittedly 20 minutes). I am now watching how price develops to see if it can regain higher support in one or both of the forks. Am watching the area of the black circle in particular to see if red quartile resistance remains strong as well as to see if the blue Median Line does anything.

For what it's worth the Upper Parallel of the 240min fork which had guided price so well is at about 1660.

Hope people glean some benefit from the above – trading is simple if you have a system that works and employ proper money management. Apart from that you need to practice your art and be observant - eg failure of support can tell you as much, if not more, than continued support...


beeb
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  • #8,837
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:03pm Aug 13, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting beeb
Hope people glean some benefit from the above – trading is simple if you have a system that works and employ proper money management. Apart from that you need to practice your art and be observant - eg failure of support can tell you as much, if not more, than continued support...
beeb
I don't use pitchforks myself, but enjoy reading your posts. I can't help but notice that support turns resistance and/or resistance turns support on those pitch fork lines (along with basic s/r). Just goes to show that concept whether with horizontal lines or diagonal lines simply works. The other thing that is interesting about them is that they are kind of like 'grid trading' think "Bird Watching in Lion Country" only with diagonal lines vs. horizontal.

Interesting stuff for sure. I think it is great you've found something you have full confidence in and use in a consistent manner. This is another key to the gates.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,838
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:36pm Aug 13, 2011 8:36pm
beeb - thanks for the detailed post - I will add a link to it in the
FIRST POST
In your Fork Section so that others can reach it.

Quoting beeb
I wanted to write some lines about how I have traded GC over the past few months via forks as I think it shows how effective they can be.

Chart 1 shows the original GC 240 min chart I drew in late March. ............

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,839
  • Aug 13, 2011 10:26pm Aug 13, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting mmudasir
ok take your time thanks for this effort

Working on some H1 and H4 charts right now.

A bunch of supports and Moving averages are in line.

Seems we have about 6 new Gold threads all of a sudden!
Hopefully that will mean less spam for us.

Should have the charts up soon.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,840
  • Aug 14, 2011 12:10am Aug 14, 2011 12:10am
Some gaps close right away, some can take months or years.

I have noticed gaps can vary- from broker to broker depending on when they close and the spread.

Any way - here is a reminder and a close up of the recent 14 usd gap.
Visible on lower TFs. When I switch to H4 not visible. Somehow it is filled in.

In any case not going to pay to much attention to it. If it closes I will bet there are stacked longs resting in the area, I will likely set some myself.

Here are the pics. More to come.

NOTE THERE ARE TWO charts. the Gap is outlined vertically (area) in red and horizontally in purple
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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