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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #8,801
  • Aug 11, 2011 9:21am Aug 11, 2011 9:21am
Quoting Tilf
Here is the chart beeb.

Ultra short term we have some sort of expanding pattern (not too strong to me).

Overall the pennant lines will form short term term supports. Margin hike of 22% would mean that speculators lose 22% purchasing power on gold (instead of buying 1 lot a person can afford probably 0.8). Physical demand is no doubt higher but short term we can see some downside I believe.

Ok gold broke that ultra short term support as im typing

ADD: I saw a post by beeb asking a time frame for the support..can't see the post now
isn't that a head and shoulders pattern, neck line being 1777?
  • #8,802
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:18am Aug 11, 2011 10:18am
Quoting patguchi
isn't that a head and shoulders pattern, neck line being 1777?
True I did not notice that pattern. The HnS target would be 1747.

I see a lot of volume here on this dip and price is not even rallying back from here. The buyers here will have their stops at 1720 swing low. A move below that would bring Gold down to 1660's!

This view is backed by historical price actions. Will throw up some charts soon showing high volume failures.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,803
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:29pm Aug 11, 2011 1:29pm
long @ 1736 after 1730 was denied. looking for 1755 TP

1720 SL

staying out of silver for the moment. too volatile

Mitch
  • #8,804
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:36pm Aug 11, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting Mitchoss
long @ 1736 after 1730 was denied. looking for 1755 TP

1720 SL

staying out of silver for the moment. too volatile

Mitch
I am in long also.
  • #8,805
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:54pm Aug 11, 2011 1:54pm
Brilliant call Mitch.


Quoting Mitchoss
long @ 1736 after 1730 was denied. looking for 1755 TP

1720 SL

staying out of silver for the moment. too volatile

Mitch
  • #8,806
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:59pm Aug 11, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting KinG-Solomon
Brilliant call Mitch.
yeah congrats=) may the pips be with you!
  • #8,807
  • Aug 11, 2011 2:34pm Aug 11, 2011 2:34pm
Gentleman, can any of you share with me what is the most accurate of the Daily Hi/Lo indicators to use for following the PM's?

Mine is the MTF_HiLo and for some reason its not updating the Daily Hi/Lo as it should

Dont wont any wrong numbers to show up anymore
  • #8,808
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:59pm Aug 11, 2011 3:59pm
XTrade, please allow me to give my gratitude and thanks to you, Beeb, Tilf, and most of all Bemac!!! I am learning so much!!!

Taking it all in stride too, and gaining much better discipline whilst being nimble in the PM market.



Quoting XTrade
Sure does. Good call - gold loves to form wedges! Usu. Bullish!
  • #8,809
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:16pm Aug 11, 2011 4:16pm
having a stab at this 4hr pin bar, not as big a pull back as i wanted but anyhow MM will save me if Im wrong.

some europeans have just banned short selling this is a very bad sign in my book atleast, could help gold some more..
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  • #8,810
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:13pm Aug 11, 2011 5:13pm
GOLD just popped 1777 on my radar.
  • #8,811
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:59pm Aug 11, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting XTrade
Bemac, can you post some ICCE charts please?
THanks!
Sure I can.
Let's start with the Daily Gold.
I would prefer to call this a Relaxation rather than a Retracement.
Believe it or not... Not Even Bees move in a Straight Line.
I'm loaded & have set some trip wires before we hit 1927.
1927 is Technical &, my "Mental Noise Factor" allows for 20/20
+/-20 from BRN to allow for noise. Therefore I probably won't hold a full hand to the 27 mark.
Anyway: Chart.
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Zoom.
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Best to All.

"X" et al, You do understand that I use a 'Very' similar method of J16 combined with ICCE to Enter. Right?


B
  • #8,812
  • Edited 6:51pm Aug 11, 2011 6:34pm | Edited 6:51pm
From 1777, good call Bemac, ...this thing is moving back down.....and somewhat sideways.
  • #8,813
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:38pm Aug 11, 2011 10:38pm
Hi all,

Make a buy trade.
1770(Go against me)
1745(average up trade)

Now...in profit and close monitoring.

My strategy is now doing buy trade on major support.
If its major support..i risk my trade abit more.
If two support line have a major price difference. Then
i risk little and position size myself just incase the first trade fail and go to the second support line. I trade a few times...and it does happen. I can get breakeven or released my position for better trade. My average trade is always looking for lesser loss or small profit just to get out. This is to prevent getting stuck in a reverse trend. It hard to explain.

Now...i having more profit trade. But i starting to doubt whether i just lucky and my strategy only apply to gold. I think only time can prove.
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  • #8,814
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:55pm Aug 11, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting jinsen
Hi all,

Make a buy trade.
1770(Go against me)
1745(average up trade)

Now...in profit and close monitoring.

My strategy is now doing buy trade on major support.
If its major support..i risk my trade abit more.
If two support line have a major price difference. Then
i risk little and position size myself just incase the first trade fail and go to the second support line. I trade a few times...and it does happen. I can get breakeven or released my position for better trade. My average trade is always looking for lesser loss or small...
gold volatility is crazy. last march 15- 20 dollars movement was big for gold. now that's considered low. buying at key support sounds like a good idea. but factoring in the volatility makes me nervous. i'm not yet a seasoned trader to be confident enough to do that. right now, i just consider myself a student in gold trading. i cant be too aggressive. i'm looking for high probability setups where i can park my position for the long haul.

but thank you for your ideas. i'll be looking for your setups and trade it in my demo
  • #8,815
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:47am Aug 12, 2011 12:47am
Quoting patguchi
gold volatility is crazy. last march 15- 20 dollars movement was big for gold. now that's considered low. buying at key support sounds like a good idea. but factoring in the volatility makes me nervous. i'm not yet a seasoned trader to be confident enough to do that. right now, i just consider myself a student in gold trading. i cant be too aggressive. i'm looking for high probability setups where i can park my position for the long haul.

but thank you for your ideas. i'll be looking for your setups and trade it in my demo
I ever started picking the top around 1400,1500. Thinking this must be it. It shouldnt go higher anymore. Look at now.... up already 1800. I was lucky to get out of that situatuion and become profit.

The only thing i discover and learn is when following the trend. There will be lots of opportunity for you to liquidate or parital off your position and rebuild your situation if the price go against you. If you go against the trend. Sometimes you dont even have the chance to do anything at all.
  • #8,816
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:09am Aug 12, 2011 1:09am
Thanks a lot for your Answer and your Concerns

and you are absolutely right with any Word

I am doing already some live FX Gold Trades on a Mini Account for learning to deal with "real" Money instead of Papertrading

and thanks for the Link, Mate

but I dont find any Quotes for the Gold Minifuture - QO

by the Way :

just got the Bulletin from IB, that Hongkong Stockexchange has significantly increased the Margin for the Futuretrading
  • #8,817
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:16am Aug 12, 2011 1:16am
Quoting jinsen
I ever started picking the top around 1400,1500. Thinking this must be it. It shouldnt go higher anymore. Look at now.... up already 1800. I was lucky to get out of that situatuion and become profit.

The only thing i discover and learn is when following the trend. There will be lots of opportunity for you to liquidate or parital off your position and rebuild your situation if the price go against you. If you go against the trend. Sometimes you dont even have the chance to do anything at all.
i agree. keep us posted with your set ups. i really want to learn as much as i can with trading. actually i am addicted to learning right now
  • #8,818
  • Edited 10:15am Aug 12, 2011 8:07am | Edited 10:15am
GC 20min forks - just to show what I'm currently looking at....

Blue fork is the one that provided this week's long opportunities. However the green circled bar that found resistance at a blue quartile, that was previously support, was the first indication to me of a change of trend.

Initially the yellow downfork provided shorts - but because of it's steepness it wasn't going to be able to continue to do so - hence the red fork....

Anyone that has read my previous explanations can see the areas of the blue fork, that were once support, becoming resistance and the price moving down to lower areas of support. When these resistances start to become support again I will conclude that the decline is ending....

beeb

PS apologies for the chart being a bit of a mess but I wanted to fit all the info on - have removed the yellow fork on my current chart
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  • #8,819
  • Aug 12, 2011 10:06am Aug 12, 2011 10:06am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post4866251

Please participate if you would like to . Thanks
MMMYYYKKK
  • #8,820
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:37pm Aug 12, 2011 12:37pm
http://i56.tinypic.com/2moxaxj.png

head and shoulders seen at 1h chart.

neckline at 1740-43

right now pa is back testing that area. current price 1hr and 25 minutes before closing is 1736.60
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