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  • #641
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:02pm Aug 11, 2011 3:02pm
Cracks me up people don't know the difference between a long term trend and a retracement or correction.

Heck, Gold may even go down and close the gap from the start of the week.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #642
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:27pm Aug 11, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting USD-Bear
stopped, give up fighting this "pair" good luck traders........
I hope you don't take this the wrong way because I do mean it sincerely. When I saw this post by you I started to look for shorts. I found a nice resistance area and when I got bearish price action I went short. Some scalps and some short term trades. So I want to say thank you.

You see, I know you've been bearish on this pair and when you said you gave up that was the clue for me. Why? Because it is human nature to quite just before being successful. I'm totally guilty of this myself and I'm still learning and trying. I hope this will be useful to you in the sense that next time you say I quit, give it another serious try. You can see the pair had a strong down move.

The joke about doing the opposite of retail traders is kind of true, I know people have used me as a contrarian indicator in the past. I hope this doesn't offend and actually helps a little.

Good Trading to you all.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #643
  • Aug 11, 2011 6:17pm Aug 11, 2011 6:17pm
XAU/USD will rise to 2500 until end of this year.
  • #644
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:27pm Aug 11, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting beeb
For goodness sake get a life....

Every "contribution" of yours from the 14th April onwards (gold 1478) has been a snarky and negative comment about gold......

For those that care you were thrown out of "the other thread" (after being warned) for continually making unsupported assertions and said snarky comments. But I don't suppose anyone other than you gives a damn......

Most people are mature enough to be able to go long or short depending on circumstances. FYI I am a long term gold bull but I closed my $300 profit longs (from beginning...
I did not know thismplace also has a police as well, Mr. fork
  • #645
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:28pm Aug 11, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting beeb
For goodness sake get a life....

Every "contribution" of yours from the 14th April onwards (gold 1478) has been a snarky and negative comment about gold......

For those that care you were thrown out of "the other thread" (after being warned) for continually making unsupported assertions and said snarky comments. But I don't suppose anyone other than you gives a damn......

Most people are mature enough to be able to go long or short depending on circumstances. FYI I am a long term gold bull but I closed my $300 profit longs (from beginning...
I did not know this thread also has a police too, Mr. Fork

I agree though, "ignorance" would be your best bet...
  • #646
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:29pm Aug 11, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Cracks me up people don't know the difference between a long term trend and a retracement or correction.

Heck, Gold may even go down and close the gap from the start of the week.
Very good point, indeed.
  • #647
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:31pm Aug 11, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting MishaFX
XAU/USD will rise to 2500 until end of this year.
No, $5000...
  • #648
  • Aug 11, 2011 10:20pm Aug 11, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting Fmfx
No, $5000...

please keep your personal assumptions to yourselves, unless you can back it up with something. you dont wanna get all the newbies trading the wrong way.......
  • #649
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:04am Aug 12, 2011 12:04am
Gold's fall and rise from yesterday lows is due to the margin hike... As long as risk remains in the market the commodity will rise and investers wud pump in money in safer haven..... Looking ahead for a break above $1800 lvls and retest of yesterday's highs.......
  • #650
  • Aug 12, 2011 5:32am Aug 12, 2011 5:32am
Hm... I'm just looking at the gold charts, and reading this here.
It seems that gold is struggling to break the support levels, but gives no indications of ability to get back anytime soon, in my opinion.

Fundamentals for gold indicate to me that it will be going down quite a bit, due to those margin increments and due to the short-sell banning. Traders are probably covering the losses by closing long positions on gold.

As I'm pretty new to real trading, I'm not really too confident with using my own analysis simply because the market is kind of chaotic now and I'm not too experienced, so I could use other people's opinions.

So, what do you think? Will it drop below 1720, or 1700 even, or this is just a bit bigger pullback which will lead into new record during the next week?
  • #651
  • Edited 8:10am Aug 12, 2011 7:34am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting Icosahedron

Fundamentals for gold indicate to me that it will be going down quite a bit, due to those margin increments and due to the short-sell banning. Traders are probably covering the losses by closing long positions on gold.

Long term fundamentals for gold IMHO say prices will move higher, namely:

1 Inflation concerns esp in the East
2 Booming money supply
3 Market fears and instability

However it has had a very fast rise and needs/needed some retracement. Suggest you continue researching...

beeb

edit GC20min fork http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post4865822
  • #652
  • Aug 12, 2011 10:56am Aug 12, 2011 10:56am
Quoting whatfx
please keep your personal assumptions to yourselves, unless you can back it up with something. you dont wanna get all the newbies trading the wrong way.......
Thanks whatfx.
  • #653
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:41pm Aug 12, 2011 12:41pm
there could be more slide next week, but as soon as the 1720 - 1680 zone approaches, buy and sell shall be preferred for a new test of 1815 and possibly new highs

in that case, 1835 - 1850 should then be a longer term top and could lead gold to go below 1600 before new buyers emerge after consolidation
  • #654
  • Aug 12, 2011 2:15pm Aug 12, 2011 2:15pm
There is still a gap to fill in the 1660's. So not too unreasonable to see that hit next week.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #655
  • Aug 12, 2011 4:48pm Aug 12, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting fammira
there could be more slide next week, but as soon as the 1720 - 1680 zone approaches, buy and sell shall be preferred for a new test of 1815 and possibly new highs

in that case, 1835 - 1850 should then be a longer term top and could lead gold to go below 1600 before new buyers emerge after consolidation

Can you give some analysis to go with these predictions?

thanks

beeb
  • #656
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:18am Aug 13, 2011 12:18am
Quoting beeb
Can you give some analysis to go with these predictions?

thanks

beeb
that's according to the way I see charts and reckon the market moves
sorry, I don't read analysis

you can write the trade and see if it works

now I am short from 1784 and 1777 and will increase on confirmed break of Friday's low on close for a target around 1680 with potential extensions to 1650 if equities keep dropping

there I would start slowly accumulating some buying positions, consolidation could follow before going for new highs (1815 + 20/25 or 45/50$) and afterwards a deeper correction below the above mentioned potiencial low (1650 to 1680 area), before establishing a new trading range with much more limited volatility (1400 to 1550) next year

i know my analysis is not scientific nor accurate, but is based on market moves and the fact that during reversals, market tend to hit both sides stops before the real move happens

AUDUSD topped, CHF pairs bottomed, next will be YEN crosses to reverse and gold to start the process, meanwhile EUR and GBP will move up again

so what is see is

buy CHF and YEN crosses on dips
when EUR and GBP drop, one can start accumulating position in EURAUD, GBPAUD, as much as EURUSD and GBPUSD

as for gold, topping process is not completed yet either, as we COULD see another upside move to hit stops, much depends on market sentiment, equities moves and risk aversion, but what we are starting to see here is EURUSD, equities up and gold down.that should continue
  • #657
  • Edited 8:18am Aug 13, 2011 4:53am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting fammira
that's according to the way I see charts and reckon the market moves
sorry, I don't read analysis
Thanks for that - but I guess something got lost in translation

What I was asking was WHY you see that happening not IF you see that happening. I would not expect anyone to predict prices any way other than "according to the way I see charts". I was asking about your interpretation....If you don't want to share - that's fine....

Hope that's clear.

FWIW I see a retracement followed by continued strong hand buying and higher prices by year end based on fundamentals.....

beeb

edit - have posted a commentary on my recent charting/trading here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post4867435
  • #658
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:04am Aug 13, 2011 11:04am
Quoting beeb
Thanks for that - but I guess something got lost in translation

What I was asking was WHY you see that happening not IF you see that happening. I would not expect anyone to predict prices any way other than "according to the way I see charts". I was asking about your interpretation....If you don't want to share - that's fine....

Hope that's clear.

FWIW I see a retracement followed by continued strong hand buying and higher prices by year end based on fundamentals.....

beeb

edit - have posted a commentary on my recent charting/trading...
clear enough now

market players always move the market creating a sentiment that could last for long time, and act against it.gold has been popular based on many assumptions, diversification, safety, low interest rates and poor economic growth.
you will see soon that different news will come out and will be used to create the opposite sentiment.They will start focusing on euro zone, austrialia, new zealand, and later US interest rates hikes potency, and will likely forget debt problems while they are still there to create another sentiment...

AUD is a clear example, when it was at 1.10 -1.11 the market was expecting a rate hike later this year.that could very likely still happen, and nothing has probably changed, but AUD is now trading at 1.03 and it should soon go below parity, cause now the sentiment turned bearish on equities fall, economic uncertainities and so on.
you can guess what is behind CHF rising 6% in one day and falling 8% in two days in the same week....just different news used to create an opposite sentiment

this is how market works, and gold is and will be no exception
  • #659
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:30am Aug 13, 2011 11:30am
Quoting beeb
Long term fundamentals for gold IMHO say prices will move higher, namely:

1 Inflation concerns esp in the East
2 Booming money supply
3 Market fears and instability

However it has had a very fast rise and needs/needed some retracement. Suggest you continue researching...

beeb

edit GC20min fork http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post4865822
Thanks for the response.
I appreciate your opinion, and I agree that such quick rise in gold price needed some major pullback.

But I just wanted to point out one more thing - I see more and more people and sites forecast the beginning of the downtrend on larger time scales.
Not that I'm saying they might be right with their analyses, but the psychology worries me, because I don't actually know how many people those sites influence and how many people will consider shorting because of those news.

One such example would be http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...own_Trend.html

Do you think that such things can change the actual fundamentals for gold?

Also, I'm extremely worried because of the INSANE jump in EURUSD, GBPUSD, SP500 (and some other) volumes.
For example, EURUSD had an average of around 15k volume between 15. March and 31. July. 11th of August had 305k, followed by 146k on 12th.


Is risk-loving increasing, signaling the starting downtrend of gold?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd volume.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #660
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:43am Aug 13, 2011 11:43am
Quoting fammira
clear enough now

market players always move the market creating a sentiment that could last for long time, and act against it.gold has been popular based on many assumptions, diversification, safety, low interest rates and poor economic growth.
you will see soon that different news will come out and will be used to create the opposite sentiment.They will start focusing on euro zone, austrialia, new zealand, and later US interest rates hikes potency, and will likely forget debt problems while they are still there to create another sentiment...

AUD...
OK - let's leave it at that....

thanks anyway

beeb
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