NWi Gold ideas. Hope this crazy panic rally its just one more point to big decline coming soon 
- #302
- Jul 14, 2011 5:46am Jul 14, 2011 5:46am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
NWi Gold ideas. Hope this crazy panic rally its just one more point to big decline coming soon
why are you looking for a decline? isn't it more profitable to trade WITH the trend, lightening and adding at support and resistance? gold is in an uptrend on every timeframe....
beeb
- #303
- Jul 14, 2011 5:58am Jul 14, 2011 5:58am
- Joined May 2011 | Status: grizzly long gone | 2,427 Posts
why are you looking for a decline? isn't it more profitable to trade WITH the trend, lightening and adding at support and resistance? gold is in an uptrend on every timeframe....
beeb
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...f_of_2011.html
Don't get mad, get even!
- #304
- Edited 6:40am Jul 14, 2011 6:12am | Edited 6:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
OK - not my trading style but wishing you well....
FWIW I would view a $70 move in gold as a home run, not somewhere to put a stop.....
beeb
edit i've just read that report you linked to and i think it misses every salient point regarding the economy and the reasons for owning gold - suggest you might want to do some more research as imho the bloke does not seem to have a clue
- #305
- Jul 14, 2011 8:09am Jul 14, 2011 8:09am
why are you looking for a decline? isn't it more profitable to trade WITH the trend, lightening and adding at support and resistance? gold is in an uptrend on every timeframe....
beeb
1. Looking for turn point
2. Sell on weakness, buy on strength
3. Sell on strength buy on weakness
So the secret to know when to choose and what to choose.
In case "trade with trend and trend is up", do you really think that it is good idea to buy GOLD now?
You really think that GOLD is not overbought?In case selling on strength, we do not know that turn point is formed, and we have to wait for some confirmation.
The only one right logic now is try to catch turn point itself...
- #306
- Jul 14, 2011 8:19am Jul 14, 2011 8:19am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
We have only THREE possibilities to trade:
1. Looking for turn point
2. Sell on weakness, buy on strength
3. Sell on strength buy on weakness
So the secret to know when to choose and what to choose.
In case "trade with trend and trend is up", do you really think that it is good idea to buy GOLD now?
In case selling on strength, we do not know that turn point is formed, and we have to wait for some confirmation.
The only one right logic now is try to catch turn point itself...
eg I'm long gold from the last century (lol) as an "investment" but I'm also trading off a 10 minute chart where I have been both long and short this morning.
The point I was trying to make is that a top has been called in gold for several years and yet it has continued higher. It just seems against the odds to try to pick the top and trade against the trend. Would it not be better to wait for a daily or 240min pullback and then take the long side? For example on the daily have a look at the 14,3,3 stochastics (or 60,3,3 for longer trades) or the 150 day MA since 2009 to give you swing longs.....
Alternatively look at a different instrument which is not so clearly in a decade long uptrend.
I often ask people to turn the gold chart upside down and then ask them if they would buy it??????
Hope that makes my point clearer
beeb
- #308
- Jul 14, 2011 8:53am Jul 14, 2011 8:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
Sounds good,
So you prefer the second one technique "buy on weakness", one nice, and of course this is the best choice if you want to go long, but I'm interested in middle-term trades, so i prefer to catch turn point and get some thousand points profit then, increasing profit on every new trade using "sell on strength", because my idea is that bull gold market is 99% over while talking about middle-term and 95% while talking about long-term. After pullback to 1478 (around there) gold will raise again, and make a new high (maybe most recent...
OK I respect your viewpoint - but I disagree with it. I guess that's what makes a market
If you want to expand beyond the reason that it's gone up a lot I would be interested - I always like to have my analysis challenged....I don't see how you're going to get "some thousand points profit then" unless you anticipate gold going to $600 or so.....
Also gold is not just a commodity and is being bought up by Central Banks and by big money as a store of wealth - something which underlines the physical market. (If you haven't looked into the LBMA I respectfully suggest you do so)
I'm also interested in "middle-term trades" but have been doing so to the long side of this vehicle for a number of years.
beeb
- #309
- Jul 14, 2011 9:03am Jul 14, 2011 9:03am
OK I respect your viewpoint - but I disagree with it. I guess that's what makes a market
I don't see how you're going to get "some thousand points profit then" unless you anticipate gold going to $600 or so.....
Also gold is not just a commodity and is being bought up by Central Banks and by big money as a store of wealth - something which underlines the physical market. (If you haven't looked into...
- #311
- Jul 14, 2011 9:14am Jul 14, 2011 9:14am
fine if it goes down i am nimble enough to short it - but you haven't said WHY you think it will go down........
beeb
I'm agree with you that Gold is absolutely is in uptrend for last years and people are investing in gold thinking it's safer, but... But it's just a metal... Nothing more... Tulips...
- #312
- Jul 14, 2011 9:19am Jul 14, 2011 9:19am
- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: The Villain | 2,565 Posts
tell you what people, gold is way better than trading the currencies...
personally most of my profits have come from gold. although i do make pips from the currencies, its very difficult and hard work. gold is a winner for me. most of my heavey losses have come from currencies..., whereas gold is..........
those who or are wishing or thinking gold is gonna fall soon. dont bet your life on it. it is on its way up up and up. there may be a short correction sooner or later but it is hard to imagine the price falling too much.
even if you had gone long last week, you still would have made good money.
so, i will be watching this thread and the other gold thread closely. you will be seeing more of me on here....
personally most of my profits have come from gold. although i do make pips from the currencies, its very difficult and hard work. gold is a winner for me. most of my heavey losses have come from currencies..., whereas gold is..........
those who or are wishing or thinking gold is gonna fall soon. dont bet your life on it. it is on its way up up and up. there may be a short correction sooner or later but it is hard to imagine the price falling too much.
even if you had gone long last week, you still would have made good money.
so, i will be watching this thread and the other gold thread closely. you will be seeing more of me on here....
- #314
- Jul 14, 2011 9:27am Jul 14, 2011 9:27am
i think we're going around in circles here. you are saying that the bull is nearly over. can we try and talk specifics:
1. why
2. when
3. where do you think gold will decline to
4. in how long
i accept that we can expect pullbacks - and agree that a new high often leads to a pullback - indeed as a trader i welcome pullbacks as a chance to take profits and reload. but nothing you have said above indicates that a pullback will be anything more than that.
beeb
2. Soon (very soon, maybe tomorrow / next one-two weeks)
3. 1478 (first target)
4. 2-4 weeks with pullbacks
Hope, now i'm clear. Anyway - we will see...
- #315
- Jul 14, 2011 9:30am Jul 14, 2011 9:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
1. Wave count, panic price action
2. Soon (very soon, maybe tomorrow / next two weeks)
3. 1478 (first target)
4. 2-4 weeks with pullbacks
Hope, now i'm clear. Anyway - we will see...
sorry i think i'm missing something..... 1478 is not indicative of the end of the bull or the thousand points you claimed to be looking for.
beeb
- #317
- Jul 14, 2011 9:43am Jul 14, 2011 9:43am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
I would disagree with you there, and so would history, but if it goes down i am nimble enough to short it - but you haven't said WHY you think it will go down other than that it has gone up........
beeb
What ph3onix is saying (i think) is that gold does not possess any intrinsic value, it's worth what people want to give for it and it is chosen as a safe-haven because there was once a gold-standard and the world has only weak-currencies. There is no reason to choose gold as a safe haven because you can't eat it to survive. Would rather choose agricultural commodities for that (hot tip
)Telling it is rising sooo long why wouldn't it rise further is more a lemming story like everyone jumps over the clip why shouldn't I?
But then you are right saying that there are no sound technical arguments to predict an end of this gold mania.
For me it's a question of risk/reward.
Building positions on mania-ideas is too risky for me excepting the possibility this mania is going on and on.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- #318
- Edited 10:11am Jul 14, 2011 9:45am | Edited 10:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
- #319
- Jul 14, 2011 9:48am Jul 14, 2011 9:48am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
hi beed, glad to see you're able to enter the thread.
What ph3onix is saying (i think) is that gold does not possess any intrinsic value, it's worth what people want to give for it and it is chosen as a safe-haven because there was once a gold-standard and the world has only weak-currencies. There is no reason to choose gold as a safe haven because you can't eat it to survive. Would rather choose agricultural commodities for that (hot tip
Telling it is rising sooo long why wouldn't it rise further is more a lemming story like everyone jumps...
Thanks for the welcome - good to be allowed to post....
I don't think gold is in a mania as you put it and I agree there are no sound technical reasons for predicting it's final top. I just don't see the wisdom of shorting the market as a "be all and end all" when you can play the pullbacks and surges..
beeb
- #320
- Jul 14, 2011 10:01am Jul 14, 2011 10:01am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Thanks for the welcome - good to be allowed to post....
I don't think gold is in a mania as you put it and I agree there are no sound technical reasons for predicting it's final top. I just don't see the wisdom of shorting the market as a "be all and end all" when you can play the pullbacks and surges..
beeb
Would love to get in to a discussion why gold has been (incorrectly) chosen as a "safe haven" and why I see it as a mania but then we both have better things to do....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself