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  • #7,821
  • Jul 9, 2011 4:37am Jul 9, 2011 4:37am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #7,822
  • Jul 9, 2011 5:13am Jul 9, 2011 5:13am
Quoting clc4x
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

anything is "possible" but we deal in probables.....



beeb
  • #7,823
  • Jul 9, 2011 5:47am Jul 9, 2011 5:47am
36.6 looks to be an important level
Waiting for retest
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  • #7,824
  • Jul 9, 2011 8:29am Jul 9, 2011 8:29am
Quoting XTrade
beeb, what I had meant at first glance without looking at the chart closely and comparing prices, was did the price break out of the structure perhaps offering a new one.

Thanks for posting.
XTrade - price is still very much following the stucture or line of the fork that I drew.

The important thing to realise is that the lines of the fork do not have to remain sacrosanct ie i can draw a further Quartile or Warning Line outside the fork and still expect price to find support or resistance along those lines. It is the movement of price within the fork, and sometimes outside of it, which tells the tale of what may happen.....

The fork is defining a trending move and price is in a trend until the trend changes ie the fork is valid until it isn't - this may sound illogical but the fork will give you areas of support and resistance. When these areas get taken out it tips the wink about changes in trend...

beeb
  • #7,825
  • Edited 3:44pm Jul 9, 2011 10:25am | Edited 3:44pm
ML – Median Line
UP – Upper Parallel
LP – Lower Parallel
UQ – Upper Quartile – midway between ML and UP
LQ – Lower Quartile – midway between ML and LQ
WL – Warning Line – not shown but equidistant from ML to UP or LP outside the UP or LP
OQ – Outer Quartile – midway between UP or LP and WL
SP – Sliding Parallel – any line following the trajectory of the fork


It looks complicated but I'll try to take you through what this fork is telling me and where the trades are.....This is a 20 min SI chart:

When I started seeing price taking out highs I began looking for an uptrending fork – a fork takes it's A from the swing low and it's B and C from the next swing high and swing low. As I've said many times, it is not pure “science” as you can see from this example – science would dictate that the B should be at the previous swing high where SP 2 commences, but “art” says move it to it's current position....

I was drawing numerous different forks looking for some kind of confirmation that one was in tune with the price movements. When I started seeing a series of resistances at the LQ – shown as the series of red circles – this fork got my attention. As price approached the LP at the red arrow”ONE” I was watching to see if there was a reaction away from the LP. There was and the second bar at the LP provided a very low risk entry in that you could place a stop just under the low of the first bar at the LP.

Price moved through the ML and came back to (1) then moved up to (2) allowing me to look for a SP that was giving some support. This became SP 1 and when price came back down to it at (3) I was anticipating support along this line. It also gave a second possible long entry.

Price then moved up to the UP at (4) which could have been an area to take profit/reduce long. The fact that (4) was HIGHER IN THE FORK than (2) and the small intermediate peak was a bullish sign.

If price was to maintain constant support levels you would expect it to find support at SP 1 after turning down at (4). In fact it turned higher in the fork (bullish again) at (5). It then moved beyond the UP to (6). This higher high with in the fork ie (6) is higher than (4) within the fork - and the higher low in the fork ie (5) is higher in the fork than (3) is all bullish. Point (6) would also be a place to lighten.

It also allowed me to draw in SP 2 as a possible line of resistance above the UP and SP 3 as a possible line of support. Sure enough price came back down to SP 3 and turned up just above it at point (7) - (again bullish as it did not reach quite so low in the fork as it did at point (5) ) and also gave a third possible long.

Surprise, surprise price reached SP 2 at point (8) and turned back down again – another place to lighten perhaps.

Now we are looking to see how low price moves before turning up again towards point (9). If it doesn't reach as low in the fork as SP 3 then the low that it did reach would become a potential SP 4 and be the next line of (higher) support. If however it breaches SP 3 you are looking at a lessening of support and should be aware of a potential change of trend. You would then look to see where support kicks in – either at the ML or maybe just under at a continuation of SP 1. Also look to see if there is a new line of resistance forming at a lower level in the fork than SP 2.

What must be borne in mind is that these movements should be viewed in real time and analysis made as price reacts to the lines. There are no cast-iron guarantees but I believe that forks properly used are a very powerful trading tool as they can indicate areas of support and resistance with astounding accuracy. As an example of this the 240 min GC fork that I first drew in late March caught the recent low in gold at it's LP to within $1.2. After thirty years of professional and private trading I don't know of any other trading tool that can do that.....

I hope this has been of help in explaining some of the things I am looking for when trading via forks. They can be used in any timeframe from 1 minute to weekly, depending on what you are looking for and with any vehicle.

Practice their use before trading off them as, I repeat, it's not just “science”, there is plenty of “art” in finding and then interpreting the fork.....


beeb
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  • #7,826
  • Edited 2:53pm Jul 9, 2011 2:41pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting beeb
ML – Median Line
UP – Upper Parallel
LP – Lower Parallel
UQ – Upper Quartile – midway between ML and UP
LQ – Lower Quartile – midway between ML and LQ
WL – Warning Line – not shown but equidistant from ML to UP or LP outside the UP or LP
OQ – Outer Quartile – midway between UP or LP and WL
SP – Sliding Parallel – any line following the trajectory of the fork


It looks complicated but I'll try to take you through what this fork is telling me and where the trades are.....This is a 20 min SI chart:

When I started seeing price taking out...
Hey Beeb, (XTrade also);
Staying on subject, this is how ICCE sees the 4Hr Silver Chart.
Dashed Blue Lines & Red Lines are Support/Resistance.

ICCE : ?
Intake;
Compression;
Combustion;
Exhaust;

Entirely a concept of Bemac.
There are no Books on it & only a couple of Webinars in the PF.

An Abridged synopsis.
How often have you plotted a Fib & not been surprised to see Compression around the 50% zone? Me to. That's where I started.
What if The Current Compression will, in the future, be 50% of the move?

The 50% mark requires a Zone. A single Price will not suffice.Through experience & observation, I created a Zone between 47.21% & 52.79%.

So... When I see a Sideways Market, I get excited. OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE.

Plotting a 4 Point Intersection Box (LS. RS. Top. Bot. encompassing All Closes {not wicks or shadows}) geratetes, not only an ICCE FIB Extension but also a Grid Parallel to the Diags through the Box.
(Compare it to Gann if you want)

'Nuff to start.
Chart: 4Hr Silver.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MT4 Ind.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Bemac Grid ICCE.mq4   44 KB | 800 downloads
  • #7,827
  • Edited 5:02pm Jul 9, 2011 3:56pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting lilpip
from $35.38 bias is down.
above 35.38 spells bull.
although I dont use indicators, maybe because of my lack of ability, can we get charts posted showing the range of prices below be it forks, fibs, ma ? thanks
47.65
38.91 eye on and open
32.94 eye on
30.17 bias up from
from my angle,looking at a smaller timeframe to help confirm the trend.
a break of weekly highs 36.34 helps to confirmation of trek north from quarterly pivot 35.38
weekly
36.34
34.64
32.94
daily
34.96
34.09 daily trend guide
33.22
first clue for heading north this week would be...
pictures do look better, so bemacs 50 percent line that he mentioned lined up with the weekly trend guide area of 34.64.
beebs fork at #1 and 3 area shows the retest of the daily breakout @ 34.96 holding .
looking at next week, although a weekly close @ 36.63 is above projected weekly highs 36.34 it just doesnt feel like a breakout.
bias is up from 35.20-58 for monday with eye on monthly pivot 38.91 response.
normally at quarter start price rotates back toward monthly pivot and extends back out, as gold did rotating back and hitting monthly pivot @1496 area and extending back out.
If were going to get moving this month it wont be till were on the other side of 38.91.
till then one day at a time.
daily monday
37.34
35.20-58
33.82

gold weekly
1566
1526
1486
monday
1549-53
1524
1495
with eye on 1515 response
  • #7,828
  • Jul 9, 2011 9:49pm Jul 9, 2011 9:49pm
very well done, Beeb. Thanks a LOT for it! You're the best!

What is the possibility that the price will go up to OQ and then down to 2 small corrections down to UP n then a sharp shoot up or shoot down (even back to ML or lower)?



Quoting beeb
ML – Median Line
UP – Upper Parallel
LP – Lower Parallel
UQ – Upper Quartile – midway between ML and UP
LQ – Lower Quartile – midway between ML and LQ
WL – Warning Line – not shown but equidistant from ML to UP or LP outside the UP or LP
OQ – Outer Quartile – midway between UP or LP and WL
SP – Sliding Parallel – any line following the trajectory of the fork


It looks complicated but I'll try to take you through what this fork is telling me and where the trades are.....This is a 20 min SI chart:

When I started seeing price...
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trading is my zen
  • #7,829
  • Jul 9, 2011 10:50pm Jul 9, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting beeb
ML – Median Line
UP – Upper Parallel
LP – Lower Parallel
UQ – Upper Quartile – midway between ML and UP
LQ – Lower Quartile – midway between ML and LQ
WL – Warning Line – not shown but equidistant from ML to UP or LP outside the UP or LP
OQ – Outer Quartile – midway between UP or LP and WL
SP – Sliding Parallel – any line following the trajectory of the fork


It looks complicated but I'll try to take you through what this fork is telling me and where the trades are.....This is a 20 min SI chart:

When I started seeing price taking out...
Very nice chart Beeb!!! It should really inspire traders to develop the "art" you talk about.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #7,830
  • Jul 10, 2011 12:34am Jul 10, 2011 12:34am
Quoting beeb
As you know XTrade I look at forks for likely areas of support and resistance so "broken" probably has a different meaning/inference to me....lol

However you can see that the "rhythm" of this SI 20 min fork is very much WITH the moves in price - basically if one can't make money of this fork you really should be doing something else

beeb
Nice chart.

Do you have an updated fork for GOLD? Do you draw each line manually or you use some kind of custom indicator or script?

You usually draw this on the 1 hour chart with zoom out?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #7,831
  • Edited 3:49pm Jul 10, 2011 3:17am | Edited 3:49pm
Appreciate the positive comments....

One thing I meant to add/emphasise was that forks work on any timeframe and it is important to be aware of the interaction between timeframes when taking a trade. A fork in one timeframe can lead to a trade being taken in another by either giving detail or context.

Shirley - I try not to predict price but to let the forks do the talking. As long as this fork works, the lines should give some idea of supports and resistances. Will it go up or down? Don't know, but as long as new highs are being made and until the support of SP 3 (or the next support level if one is created) is broken then trend is up. You are right to point out that what was resistance can become support and vice versa. It sounds initially simplistic, but the adage that "a trend is a trend until it isn't" is well worth remembering....

Mapleleaf - I use Ensign Windows charting package with Esignal feeds. I am also charting/trading futures rather than cash. I use 20min and 240min as my standard intraday options but will look at anything from daily to 1 min where helpful..

beeb
  • #7,832
  • Jul 10, 2011 10:33am Jul 10, 2011 10:33am
Quoting beeb
Appreciate the positive comments....

One thing I meant to add/emphasise was that forks work on any timeframe and it is important to be aware of the interaction between timeframes when taking a trade. A fork in one timeframe can lead to a trade being taken in another by either giving detail or context.

Shirley - I try not to predict price but to let the forks do the talking. As long as this fork works, the lines should give some idea of supports and resistances. Will it go up or down? Don't know, but as long as new highs are being made and until...
beeb are you able to overlay a daily timeframe or 4 hr ?
I believe it will help give a clearer picture as to what one is looking at on a daily trend and will help others.
you yourself understand where you are at a glance looking at your forks.
myself, I understand my timeframes centerpoint price and highs and lows at a glance as you notice they both line up.
example being last week starting with monday.
looking at your chart its easier to comprehend daily bias which was down from 34.09 and once the new daily timeframe started bias changes to up along with daily breakout and the retest holding .
  • #7,833
  • Jul 10, 2011 10:45am Jul 10, 2011 10:45am
Quoting lilpip
beeb are you able to overlay a daily timeframe or 4 hr ?
I believe it will help give a clearer picture as to what one is looking at on a daily trend and will help others.
you yourself understand where you are at a glance looking at your forks.
myself, I understand my timeframes centerpoint price and highs and lows at a glance as you notice they both line up.
example being last week starting with monday.
looking at your chart its easier to comprehend daily bias which was down from 34.09 and once the new daily timeframe started bias changes to up...
lilpip - the extreme moves in silver make it very difficult to view a 20 min chart and a daily chart overlaid because of the differences in scale. the daily chart i am using goes back to august 2005, so you will understand that the 20min chart shown above wouldn't even register......

i am using a 240min chart to give context but was trying to keep things (relatively) simple by just showing the 20min one and working through that. also, and please don't take this the wrong way, i don't necessarily show all my work here

beeb
  • #7,834
  • Jul 10, 2011 11:03am Jul 10, 2011 11:03am
Quoting beeb
lilpip - the extreme moves in silver make it very difficult to view a 20 min chart and a daily chart overlaid because of the differences in scale. the daily chart i am using goes back to august 2005, so you will understand that the 20min chart shown above wouldn't even register......

i am using a 240min chart to give context but was trying to keep things (relatively) simple by just showing the 20min one and working through that. also, and please don't take this the wrong way, i don't necessarily show all my work here

beeb
the chart you posted shows several days, I suppose one could draw there own timeframe lines as time moves forward however I thought yours would be more accurate since your posting the chart if it were simple enough.
myself time is just as crucial as price but im not smart enough to post charts or do I have them drawn up.
  • #7,835
  • Jul 10, 2011 1:29pm Jul 10, 2011 1:29pm
LilPip,

Do you know how to do a screenshot?

We can walk you through the process so that you will now be able to post all the charts you want!

Quoting lilpip
the chart you posted shows several days, I suppose one could draw there own timeframe lines as time moves forward however I thought yours would be more accurate since your posting the chart if it were simple enough.
myself time is just as crucial as price but im not smart enough to post charts or do I have them drawn up.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,836
  • Jul 10, 2011 7:40pm Jul 10, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting beeb
Appreciate the positive comments....

One thing I meant to add/emphasise was that forks work on any timeframe and it is important to be aware of the interaction between timeframes when taking a trade. A fork in one timeframe can lead to a trade being taken in another by either giving detail or context.

beeb
That is a good point to mention Beeb. I believe there are many traders, including fork traders, who do not consult time-frames other than the one they are trading. I totally agree with your comment about "...detail and context...".

I think the use of multiple time-frames is a more thorough approach... just mho.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #7,837
  • Jul 10, 2011 7:52pm Jul 10, 2011 7:52pm
morning everyone (me living in asian session).

still a bull, exhaustion soon? Or an upper breakthrough?

if london takes it to 1550, a chance for 1570.......................portugal and italy are cooked as well as the euro this morning.

gold gets better cooked.
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trading is my zen
  • #7,838
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:16pm Jul 10, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting ShirleyLo
morning everyone (me living in asian session).

still a bull, exhaustion soon? Or an upper breakthrough?

if london takes it to 1550, a chance for 1570.......................portugal and italy are cooked as well as the euro this morning.

gold gets better cooked.
Yes Miss Lo. but first the Res Horiz.. at 1,548.xx
And Then...
A Bounce off the Top 1,555.xx before Breaking it.
That bounce may drop to 1,534.xx.

{Look for Large Candles on the 4Hr to see what I'm talking about}

But...
I gotta be a Buyer here.
This looks like a setup for a New High.
If you have the kanute's to short this Market and have reasons whhy, I would love to hear them.

B
  • #7,839
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:31pm Jul 10, 2011 8:31pm
nope, I'm having an entry short order at 1560 just on my upper bollinger and the R2.

nil position now. tempted to buy and t/p at 1555 safe side

Quoting Bemac
Yes Miss Lo. but first the Res Horiz.. at 1,548.xx
And Then...
A Bounce off the Top 1,555.xx before Breaking it.
That bounce may drop to 1,534.xx.

{Look for Large Candles on the 4Hr to see what I'm talking about}

But...
I gotta be a Buyer here.
This looks like a setup for a New High.
If you have the kanute's to short this Market and have reasons whhy, I would love to hear them.

B
trading is my zen
  • #7,840
  • Jul 10, 2011 9:07pm Jul 10, 2011 9:07pm
FOMC & Bernanke speech on wednesday.
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