XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Anything is possible, I would say if it did fall that would be a level of ULTIMATE support.

Due to the YEARS of suppression at the 21/22 level. It is unlikely to fall far below that.

Likewise, at 20 USD per ozt I would be "backing up a dumptruck" to buy phsical bullion.
Along with many others I assure you.
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I don't want to tell you how to trade your account. But here is my advice.

1. In the future ONLY enter that high towards the RECORD HIGH if you are holding substantial positions from below.

or

2. IF you are scalping.

Next- Wait to see how the market opens and is trading by noon on Monday.
Half of this move down should be recovered next week.

Personally I might - after waiting - make an assessment - if it continues to slide - which I am doubting at least without some nice upticks first - then liquidate some of the positions.

I have heard a rule of "hedging" that goes as such - Never hedge a losing trade. Most of the time you will end up losing more money hedging if you are not careful do to erratic thinking and too much emotion.

If you are patient, it is likely that these positions will return to profit at some point - there is no guarantee as to when.

Thus the best thing to do may be in the event of further sliding take the biggest loser off - and just eat the loss. It happens to all of us.
Hold some, and add at a lower price. Then when the price rises up you will be even and can either flatten all positions at no loss and start fresh or- flatten the losers and add more.

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Now more on hedging. Say you were long Euro for 1000 pips (yes 1000 not 100) but the price action was suggesting a possible say 300 pip correction.
You think your original position is headed to 2000 pips but don't want to close it, you then may open up a hedge to make up the pips southbound - close when it turns up and there you go, you've made profit while in profit,
next you would add another long after the hedge is closed 300 pips cheaper than before.

Get it?

Hope this helps. Wait for next week. Even if half the move down is recovered you'll lose less closing out the biggest position at that point.
X

Dear Trader,
My name is MR.Farhad as Au Trader .I read your technical analysis about XAUUSD and it's really good.
What do you guess for next week?
I think Gold is in oversold reign and waiting for buy signal?
Kind regards

Hi there, been in your position a few years back when I started trading and yeh...went with too much lots with too little money in my acc!!!

Like XTrade I can't tell you how to trade,
but a few things I learnt from my old losses that I've made myself to do now:
1. ALWAYS cut loss your biggest loss (in this case, cut loss ones in the highest price of gold you bought...1550s..) for that your lower buys in gold might be hit again so you can close them a.s.a.p (or make profit if it resumes uptrend next week). PLUS, you don't have to wait for weeks until it goes back to 1550, in those weeks you'll waste waiting for it to go back up there, you can make more money than your loss after you discipline your trading strategies. so pls do so!

2. You can buy again at lower price now with the margin you've closed to make up that losses.

3. Hedge never does it for me. Anything is possible, but it looks a liiiitle late for a short positions now that it might go up (at least for correction), so if you wanna hedge, maybe worth waiting until it reaches its top of correction (Like XTrade says, maybe half of what gold has lost last week will be back)

4. And while you're doing no 3, you can close up your lower buys once it makes little profit....

5. I don't always recommend this, but you can always inject more money into your account, at least enough money for your margin calls to be impossibly low...like 1100/oz lol. Again, this is the last resort... because if you're holding ur positions for that long, there IS a chance for us normal people to be greedy and keep buying lots and lots and LOSE everything.

Plus you will pay HUGE interests per night you keep your positions.


Hope this helps, I've been there, and those 5 steps have helped me a lot and actually make profits. We can't always make profit, but we can minimize our loss, I assure you

Some brokers are starting to eliminate trading of XAU/XAG (or in Oanda's case remove any leveraged trading of the pairs). What is this going to mean for the prices of these two? Most of the major movements are caused by large buying/selling but a lot of retail investors are holding paper xau/xag longs. This might cause a pretty big dip in mid july.

The retail paper speculation of trading XAU or Spot gold via a Forex brokr
who may or may not be putting your positions onto the "real" market (most likely NOT) will have just about a big fat 0 effect on the price of gold.

Do you realize how small the retail sector of the FX market is?

Even if you had 100,000 traders on this forum buy the Euro at once, standard lots, the price may move 10 pips. And that's a guess at best.

hi traders,

what's your view on these fundamentals this week? How will they affect gold?
1. No QE3 (people say the oil dumping was indeed Obama's 'QE3'..)
2. Greek debt and the EUR - people buy both USD and gold...
3. End of Options' period (27th June)

I opened two long positions of GOLD in the beginning of may, at 1525 and 1530.. then gold started to go down non-stop..

I still hold those positions, never closed them.

This week I was 1000 pips up and I could close with good profit but I hold them thinking I could make some more pips.

GOLD VIOLENTLY fell like mad and I'm negative again.

I will hold the positions hoping for gold to go up again, but I have learn a lesson from this of course.

It just amazes me how slow it goes up and how incredible fast it goes down.

Still learning on a daily basis anyways.

Just to add some thoughts, I remember i've read an analysis with a fibonacci from last big retracement in 2007 - 2008.
It was said it would go to the 261 level then back from there..
maybe to 161 level ?

Here's the view.. We effectively went to the 261 level !
I feel bad because i believed in this and DIDNT trade it simply.
Don't ask why . I don't know. haha

1. who's gonna pay for US's deficit if there is no QE3 ? US pension funds ? China ? or US private companies ?

IMHO, political wise, QE2 has been getting a lot of negative responds from the voters as well as the american people. QE2
Another round of "conditioning" is needed. Commodities prices especially oil must be low. Dow Jones must roll back to low levels. Bad economic numbers must appear.
Just like in 2008, initially, senate dint want to approve the $700Billion package. Then when the Dow went down 1000points per day, banks collapsing, like it or not, they would signed anything. PANIC set in !

Bernanke is getting a lot of criticism, but when the condition is right, only QE3 or money printing can save US. He'll be shitty today, but when the timing is correct he'll be the US Superman !

please read this article from Dan Dorcini : traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

QE3 will only come when the condition is RIGHT.

2. No comment as for the outcome of EURO.
Regarding the price of GOLD, you must research on how GOLD price is derived at the first place.
1. You can buy GOLD in the open market
2. LBMA, COMEX
3. BUY up mining companies, which is relatively cheap as indicated by HUI index.

If you're China, you can choose to buy directly from the mining companies. Just need to sign contracts to safely secure all of your needs for the next 5years. Might even get massive discounts. Mining companies will sure love it.
So all these massive purchases wont have any substantial effect on the spot prices because it does not go through LBMA or COMEX.

Do note that the ROI of GOLD is extremely high in an environment where the central banks only loan out 1year @ 1% where 4months can yield you 19%.

What investment can you get 19% per 6months in the current market ??
From the way it goes, those bullion banks will find their end game faster if the price goes up the way it does.

All of the investment community will buy more GOLD to keep

for comparison : 19% in 6months for GOLD vs 3% for 5year US Government Bonds.
Are you fxxking dumb to get 5year Treasuries for 3% where inflation per year is 5% ??

So do you think that GOLD price can go up that smoothly ? Definitely not !
Price suppression will always happen. Anything is possible !!

IMF might come out of a sudden and announce they'll sell 300tonnes to scare the shit out of buyers. From there, you'll see 20% GOLD price decrease due to panic. 1 year later it might recover everything. But what happened to your trading account if you happen to get caught ?


3. Options ending. Usually down (95%), pls check the daily charts, down bars during last week.
a. week before
b. same week
c. week after
it'll come, eventually



Please understand my stand on trading and all the endless possibilities.
I might be the angel as well as the devil.
you cannot be too optimistic on one that particular thing.

Do not use your BELIEF on trading. ALWAYS HAVE A BALANCED OPINION.
You are trading at leverage, you're not buying physical.

If you're buying PHYSICAL. you just need to buy and forget about the rest for the next 5years. 30% correction wont burn your physical, but it'll burn your trading account !!!

another great article you should check it out
http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/06/25/jims-mailbox-727/

If you draw a line from Jan to now, yes the daily or H4 line has been breached.

When looking at the bigger picture you can see how insignificant that line is.
For day trading it is not for position trading it is.

I am trying to show you in my chart:

1. The price is capable of 200 - 300 dollars over time

2. The trend goes further back than January. This is a weekly view channel
from 2008 when the price had risen to close to 1000 (it was about ( 900 something if I remember correctly without looking - after a correction to 700 appx - then the price hit 1000 resistance broke through and after hitting 1050 it has not come

3. Less 2008 - there are another 8 years of uptrend.
not to mention the 1000's of years gold has been sought after.

4. The summer can be a slow time for Gold look at my Vertical outlined areas,

5. My channel allows for a potential correction to 1420 where it will meet horizontal support -

6. Next is the 50 WEEK moving average Coming in around 1375.

7. There have been various highs set - Like the tide - markets ebb and flow, or go up and down. What the channel shows is a repetitious pattern.
-
Gold makes a new high, then corrects. This fashion has been approximately as such $250xx Up - $75xx-100 USD down, as this happens we create new supports and resistances.

8. Our last major incline was from 1300 appx - to 1575 appx. quite a move.
We have fallen now to the midline area of the channel. It is possible the price could come down further before the next wave up. Allowing new money to enter at a more affordable and less dangerous price level.

9 _ Gotta go -
But - There would have to be a MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR shift in the Global economies to send the price of gold reeling down. We all know that is NOT around the corner.
And no I don't mean a correction of a few hundred dollars.

10. I will trade what I see on this setup - long and (short if need be ) u

M15 overbought + divergence on RSI and Stoch
M30 overbought RSI
H1 overbought + divergence on RSI and Stoch
H4 Overbought + divergence on RSI and Stoch

big trendline from april still intact and pysch 1500 level.

this thing has to rise today.

I like gold at the 38.2fib

boring asian session. Gold looks dim. Every data is mixed, good news seem always temporary.

Maybe worth doing nothing but observe or buy USDJPY

Gold doesn't look good at the moment. Any ideas if it might rebound to 1520 again?

anyone know gold production and needs different in average.

China will Not Peg. They are doing quite well and perhaps would say, thank you, we are touring the globe & buying all the Cherry Resources.

Euro Will Fail: That was hard to type but I believe it is true.
The Euro, in it's current form, cannot survive. That leaves two Options. Adjust or Leave.
Surprisingly, perhaps to some, I suspect that they may choose to leave.
This means I am Up for shorts in the Euro.
Up For Longs in Gold. I know it dropped recently. To me, with PA & BRN... thats a Solid Buy. Unless you are Scalping.

Greece will Fail. Ireland shortly (within 3 Months thereafter) will follow. This may seem like Long Term Trading to some but, to me, it'ts about "Which Way" over the next year or so.
So... What are we left with?
AUD USD? I don't thik that that is interesting enough. Although...
USD CAD? Same ending with a different story.
GBP? Not ready yet.
The Swiss Franc has this enigma attached that suggests it is poss to Hold a Bunch without divulging.
E.Commerce is biting into that concept but, I believe, It may Still be the Strongest Bet out there.

Short:
USDCHF.
Long:
Any kind of Gold you can get your hands on.

I May be wrong but you gotta agree... That's a commitment...

BMc

too many people have no idea how powerful that thing called China is.

So they say an epidemic flu in the USA is only a sneeze for China.

Gold is just cheap for them, they drink $50/bowl birds nest soup as staple foods just because. You can't see them as peasants anymore, trust me, I travel to China monthly! I actually see them lining up to buy silver and gold coins and 100 gr bars in banks on Monday morning, and government propaganda on TV, radio, and newspapers to buy gold as a protection of wealth (apparently they own some trillions of USD reserve and don't know what to do about it because that USD never goes out again, so they exchange them with gold, part of why they don't do gold mines)

China loves a bargain - that's a mindset. Every 50USD drops in gold price are bargains for them.

China likes holding on to assets and certainty, they like to actually HOLD on to some sort of possesions. The CEO of a steel company which we source our steel from once said, "I have 10 kgs of gold bars, if the price goes down I still have 10 kgs of gold bars. If I have 10,000USD, if the price goes down then I don't have 10,000USD anymore!!" - and that's the mindset of other millions who line up to buy bars, passed from generation to generation, that mindset was.

Long term supply < demand : gold still incredibly bullish as long as China lives!

Hey Shirley Lo,
I don't believe we have comminicated directly before & so I wanted to say...Firstly... ne hao ma
Welcome. I do enjoy the portense of your posts.
You seem to have a finger on the pulse of the markets you comment upon.

I never visited China on a Monthly Basis but I did visit. Many Times.{at least a dozen twix the turn of the milleneum} Always with Business in mind. {Mostly as a commoner with some clout dealing with PRC Government.} When they reciprocated with visits to me... I knew it was going to be Big Days for for the local casino. {Avg. $200.00 / head per day on my tab}
No Regrets. It cost me a bundle but I did discover...
Chinese Government will not {as yet} do business like the slick & quick US Slash & Dash. If China makes a deal; it will be cast for generations.

(Personal Note:
I learned much from that attitude and their focus on Target before Time)

Suffice to say I will not be taking them lightly.

Che Che

B