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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #7,161
  • Edited 5:50pm Jun 13, 2011 3:25pm | Edited 5:50pm
And before anyone accuses me of not posting charts - here's a closeup of the same 240min GC fork that I have been posting since early April. So far the quartile has provided support/small bounce.....

http://www.screencast.com/t/9zZZjNH41Pwq

Note that I'm not saying where gold "will" go - all I have been doing is providing charts showing where I perceive support and resistance to exist....

beeb
  • #7,162
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:19pm Jun 13, 2011 4:19pm
Bit of an understatement eh? It's been beginning for the past 10 years....

Quoting dailyking
Gold is giving crazy money, and it's just the beginning....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,163
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:27pm Jun 13, 2011 4:27pm
Beeb, Whew, couldn't have said it better myself...

I would deem that half of those that try to buck the trend and call tops lose over the long run in trade count of successes and failures.

Usually they see a dip, and (we have heard this one about 100 times) "this is it! the big reversal, gold is going to fall to 850, with no techs or fundies, Just CAUSE... it went up." What happens next??? We make another new High.

Welp markets don't work that way especially gold. The other side is gearing up to get long at a more favorable price. Not sweating over a 10 USD move.

Gold swings. A 20, 30 or even after highs 50 to 100 dollar movements down are not significant in the scheme of things. As corrections they are a part of healthy trading.

It's scary to think of the success rate of some if they actually followed the trend.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Old saying. The market can remain irrational longer than YOU can remain solvent.
Learn it. (not to you beeb)
X

Add: As far as I can see GOLD is still above 1500 at appx 1510 That is appx 65 USD off the "spot" high.

Now to the newbies, I ask you what is a better trade?
Short from 1550? (no matter what you say - (no one catches all the tops and bottoms. sorry. thus, you are not short from the high.)
Or long from 1250 with adding on?

Quoting beeb
It is really boring to keep hearing all these different voices over and over again carping on about scalping a few bucks against the trend in gold. Congratulations, but the real money has been blowing your nuts off for over a decade.......

So you make 1% or 2% or maybe once in a blue moon 10%. Who cares? Some people have been long since the gold bull was in it's infancy and have hundreds of percent profit.....

Won't be about so much in future - I wish you good trading......

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,164
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:47pm Jun 13, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting XTrade
Beeb, Whew, couldn't have said it better myself...

I would deem that half of those that try to buck the trend and call tops lose over the long run in trade count of successes and failures.

Usually they see a dip, and (we have heard this one about 100 times) this is it! the big reversal, gold is going to fall to 850, with no techs or fundies, Just CAUSE... it went up.

Welp markets don't work that way especially gold. The other side is gearing up to get long at a more favorable price. Not sweating over a 10 USD move.

Gold swings. A 20,...
The exact reason why I do not like this thread, for the majority of participants there is no open mind for both sides with the argument of the length of the bull-trend as if it will continue forever.
I do see clear signs of a correction based on fundamentals and sound technical reasons. This all could end as a correction of the existing up-trend but it also could be the beginning of a final turning of the trend.
I do not know, the market and PA will tell
Give room for all opinions and it will be a very interesting thread, otherwise it's chit-chat between traders with the same view and therefore rather worthless.
Sorry if I offended someone....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,165
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:54pm Jun 13, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting USD-Bear
The exact reason why I do not like this thread, for the majority of participants there is no open mind for both sides with the argument of the length of the bull-trend as if it will continue forever.
I do see clear signs of a correction based on fundamentals and sound technical reasons. This all could end as a correction of the existing up-trend but it also could be the beginning of a final turning of the trend.
I do not know, the market and PA will tell
Give room for all opinions and it will be a very interesting thread, otherwise it's chit-chat...
USD-Bear - from my point of view I welcome all reasoned debate. At the very least it makes me re-examine my analysis and at the "worst" it would make me change my view lol....

But people need to have valid reasons and proper technical analysis to counter the evidence of a decade-long bull. We very rarely see that here - more often we just get "bull market is over" or "sell now"....There are plenty of newbies here and the general consensus is not to allow unreasoned arguments to go unchallenged. If you find that to be a lack of open-mindedness I believe you should look at the thread again. There are experienced traders here who appreciate reasoned discussion but will not tolerate mere assertions.......

Please feel free to put your case

beeb
  • #7,166
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:20pm Jun 13, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting beeb
USD-Bear - from my point of view I welcome all reasoned debate. At the very least it makes me re-examine my analysis and at the "worst" it would make me change my view lol....

But people need to have valid reasons and proper technical analysis to counter the evidence of a decade-long bull. We very rarely see that here - more often we just get "bull market is over" or "sell now"....There are plenty of newbies here and the general consensus is not to allow unreasoned arguments to go unchallenged. If you find that to be a lack of open-mindedness...
beeb, I agree for the most part but the views like
"bull market is over" or "sell now"
and the views like
"bull market will continue forever" or "buy every correction"
without any proper argument are both bullshit and those traders will kill themselves in due time.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,167
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:22pm Jun 13, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting USD-Bear
beeb, I agree for the most part but the views like
"bull market is over" or "sell now"
and the views like
"bull market will continue forever" or "buy every correction"
without any proper argument are both bullshit and those traders will kill themselves in due time.

No arguments there - but a trend is a trend until it changes.....

beeb
  • #7,168
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:35pm Jun 13, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting beeb
No arguments there - but a trend is a trend until it changes.....

beeb
sure but that also is subject to argument, what does change a trend in your opinion?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,169
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:45pm Jun 13, 2011 5:45pm
Quoting USD-Bear
sure but that also is subject to argument, what does change a trend in your opinion?

I'm afraid that's a "how long is a piece of string" question.....

There is no exact answer - it just depends imho. But a change needs to be a verifiable change on a specified timescale.

Looking at it subjectively, you could argue that GC is in a downtrend on everything up to 240min. imho it is not in downtrend on the dailies as plenty of support levels remain intact and lower lows have not been created..obviously this is not all necessary criteria and getting people to agree to what is "a change" will be difficult.

beeb

off to bed now....
  • #7,170
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:19pm Jun 13, 2011 6:19pm
I love beeb, kid cracks me up.

I don't see the issue with the thread, everyone makes comments, some are valid and others are not. It is on the trader to make the call, and the market decides in the end. I can see the issue with the close minded people in the thread but whatever... that is just how life is. I love the thread, thx all for posts.
  • #7,171
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:24pm Jun 13, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting USD-Bear
beeb, I agree for the most part but the views like
"bull market is over" or "sell now"
and the views like
"bull market will continue forever" or "buy every correction"
without any proper argument are both bullshit and those traders will kill themselves in due time.
Usd bear is right just follow the flow thats best
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,172
  • Jun 13, 2011 7:08pm Jun 13, 2011 7:08pm
Quoting beeb
I'm afraid that's a "how long is a piece of string" question.....

There is no exact answer - it just depends imho. But a change needs to be a verifiable change on a specified timescale.

Looking at it subjectively, you could argue that GC is in a downtrend on everything up to 240min. imho it is not in downtrend on the dailies as plenty of support levels remain intact and lower lows have not been created..obviously this is not all necessary criteria and getting people to agree to what is "a change" will be difficult.

beeb

off to...
to me, a short from 1536 to 1450 is a mere 20% to me, now that isnt money to you ?

traders can make money from short term, mid term and long term

my strategy is this
short term and mid term is down atm (i slowly add in shorts until i reach my targeted lot size)
long term is still up (will LONG when it reach significant support on the daily chart (EMA 200), mid July or early August)


fundamentally speaking, QE2 will be ending this month, as the liquidity gets pull off the market, there might be a panic situation.

there are less buyers (as what happened during the Japan Tsunami panic). Bankers can easily short more and it'll break even 1450 easily IMHO.

You see Dow Jones is rolling down, crude, silver and gold is down. All these are meant to prepare for QE3. Until QE3 is announced, you will not get the snapback to the main uptrend that soon, as it might consolidate for a while.

last time i was trading purely based on belief, which nearly killed my account (buying dip all the way).
Gold has been in long term uptrend since 2001. Along the way, during 2008, it retraced from $1000 to $640, a near 40%. If you're a bull all the way, what will happen to your account ? I seriously cant imagine.
  • #7,173
  • Jun 13, 2011 7:15pm Jun 13, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting USD-Bear
sure but that also is subject to argument, what does change a trend in your opinion?

What makes you think we are going on a bearish trend on GOLD?

Everything show us that we are still on a bull trend until 1800-2000...

Can you show your graphic or chart where you see that we are starting a bearish trend... And if you answer that you didn't say that we are on a bearish trend, can you please explain exactly what you mean?

Because I see in sentiment you see bearish and in your message too.

Thanks.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #7,174
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:10pm Jun 13, 2011 9:10pm
Looks like potential reversal at new extended range bottom and support line
1515

Taking long here scalp. lets see how it goes.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,175
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:14pm Jun 13, 2011 9:14pm
We have been consolidating above 1500.
And the trend is still up.

Kind words of advice - don't base gold trading around oil - dow - silver - copper - the euro - whatever.

It is it's own beast. They may at times serve as barometers. Yet as I have said before after the "old time" USD UP Gold Down correlation broke, time and time again. Gold has proven that it has far more factors to it than one.


Mid term is sideways. We are in a range. thats all. there is no clear trend on an Hour 4 chart besides sideways. Daily charts and weekly charts are up.

Quoting allngap
to me, a short from 1536 to 1450 is a mere 20% to me, now that isnt money to you ?

traders can make money from short term, mid term and long term

my strategy is this
short term and mid term is down atm (i slowly add in shorts until i reach my targeted lot size)
long term is still up (will LONG when it reach significant support on the daily chart (EMA 200), mid July or early August)


fundamentally speaking, QE2 will be ending this month, as the liquidity gets pull off the market, there might be a panic situation.

there are less buyers...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,176
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:47pm Jun 13, 2011 9:47pm
Potential targets up next few sessions

#5.89 USD per ozt
$36.xx / 36.10
$36.55

Haven't looked down yet. Nice healthy correction can be seen on charts.
Thus to go further south a breach and hold of

34.45 would have to happen.

cross all bridges when come to _ use your own discretion.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,177
  • Edited 10:12pm Jun 13, 2011 10:01pm | Edited 10:12pm
An opportunity to aligne.
I offer Kudos to ALL that added Cargo on the reduction.
I offer an Opinion to All that shake hands with the Bear.
I offer an opinion that opportunityisnowhere to all that can see it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1,600 dollar gold weekly2 jun 20 long.gif Size: 23 KB


This Bull has Sharp Horns.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1,600 dollar gold weekly2 jun 20 long. 2.gif Size: 57 KB


Don't mind ICCE. Mind Your Account.

B

ps. I wanted to add that I see a trait in XTrade that I see in others I respect. Beeb included.

Integrity.

Good job boys & that's not because we are on the same side of the Gold fence. It's because of how you respond to posts.

1,640 Next Bull Target @ 161 % ICCE.
Public Side or not. We Share.
  • #7,178
  • Jun 13, 2011 11:20pm Jun 13, 2011 11:20pm
btw. 1,430 as a Drop To could still keep me as a Bull.
Yep. a Metric Tonne of Cargo between here & there But they won't let me play Sell Tops So I'll play to the Upside.
  • #7,179
  • Jun 13, 2011 11:40pm Jun 13, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting beeb
what on earth do you mean? are you suggesting gold is going to $442 ? if so i have a very nice bridge to sell you and there is some bloke in Nigeria who needs some help in channeling funds from one account to another......

beeb

you made my day. lol
trading is my zen
  • #7,180
  • Jun 14, 2011 1:49am Jun 14, 2011 1:49am
Quoting MapleLeaf
What makes you think we are going on a bearish trend on GOLD?

Everything show us that we are still on a bull trend until 1800-2000...

Can you show your graphic or chart where you see that we are starting a bearish trend... And if you answer that you didn't say that we are on a bearish trend, can you please explain exactly what you mean?

Because I see in sentiment you see bearish and in your message too.

Thanks.
Hi MapleLeaf,
I'm not saying we are in a bearish trend at least not in the TF's relevant for me.
What I do see is that gold price is overheated, looks like a parabolic buying climax on the longer term TF's, financial journalists setting up their own gold-funds, people calling out 2-3-4.000 numbers, people seeing only chances and no risk for bulls etc.
Those arguments are the base of my bearish sentiment.
Every move has a start and a end, we can try looking for indications where a move starts but we need data after that to help us indicate where it ends.

What I see currently is:
1. lower top on daily
2. rounded latest top on daily
3. price below daily, weekly and monthly pivot
4. price below 200 days MA on shorter TF's

I would think a move below daily's LTL (see chart below) could indicate a major correction towards 1320 (a level determined on weekly).
The way I like to trade is getting the downmoves where I see them, just shorted from 1335 to 1516, now waiting for the next short entry.
Could you explain where the 1800-2000 level are derived from?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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