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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #7,081
  • Jun 9, 2011 10:26am Jun 9, 2011 10:26am
Nice little boost up. Looking to sustain 1545 to proceed north.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,082
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:04am Jun 9, 2011 11:04am
Quoting XTrade
Nice little boost up. Looking to sustain 1545 to proceed north.
i was long at 1535 today and close my long at 1546
and i m long at in oil from 100.99 but still holding my position with take profit 102.72

today is also a nice day xtrade
Trading by EA
  • #7,083
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:22pm Jun 9, 2011 9:22pm
Well. It seems like tonight's session has taken a valium....

Maybe some action during London..

In any case - upside break and hold 1545 then immediate 1550 and sustain.

Downside, if 1530 range bottom goes, look to 1518/16 area next for support.

Going to read some news......
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,084
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:52am Jun 10, 2011 2:52am
i buy gold at 1542.75 now
Trading by EA
  • #7,085
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:17am Jun 10, 2011 3:17am
Quoting mmudasir
i buy gold at 1542.75 now
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  • #7,086
  • Jun 10, 2011 4:05am Jun 10, 2011 4:05am
Quoting mmudasir
i buy gold at 1542.75 now

do you use technical analysis with such trades or just instinct?

beeb
  • #7,087
  • Jun 10, 2011 4:26am Jun 10, 2011 4:26am
Quoting beeb
do you use technical analysis with such trades or just instinct?

beeb

yes i do daily basis technical analysis of gold and oil

i m a day trader i m not holding position more than one day beeb

mudasir
Trading by EA
  • #7,088
  • Jun 10, 2011 4:28am Jun 10, 2011 4:28am
Quoting mmudasir
yes i do daily basis technical analysis of gold and oil

i m a day trader i m not holding position more than one day beeb

mudasir
OK - well to help others would you like to share your analysis? Otherwise the thread is just a record of your trades, which I don't believe is what XTrade intended.......

beeb
  • #7,089
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:20am Jun 10, 2011 6:20am
i've stopped taking LONG since last week.

If you put MACD on the Daily TF, you'll notice that the MaCD is pointing downward and had a bearish divergence with the previous high of 1575 peak

GOLD also failed to break 1550 level. Tested for 7times already, went above it and came down very fast. Like yesterday, just touched and retraced half.

the upward movement seemed to be exhausted already, should retrace to EMA 200 on the daily chart soon

It's going sideway at the moment, and had hit the 1550 ceiling, waiting for the hammering down movement soon within 2weeks time

i'm preparing to short next week. TP @ 1450
  • #7,090
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:31am Jun 10, 2011 6:31am
Daily CCI 60 uptrend line broken, please refer back to the previous 3 trendline break.

CCI(60) is 3months data and if the uptrend trendline is broken, it might be ugly to take LONG.

i'm slowly building up my short position waiting for the mega retracement to the daily EMA 200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,091
  • Edited 7:01am Jun 10, 2011 6:36am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting allngap
i've stopped taking LONG since last week.

If you put MACD on the Daily TF, you'll notice that the MaCD is pointing downward and had a bearish divergence with the previous high of 1575 peak

GOLD also failed to break 1550 level. Tested for 7times already, went above it and came down very fast. Like yesterday, just touched and retraced half.

the upward movement seemed to be exhausted already, should retrace to EMA 200 on the daily chart soon

It's going sideway at the moment, and had hit the 1550 ceiling, waiting for the hammering down movement...

The 200 day EMA is at 1399 and hasn't been touched since April 2009. Is that your target or is 1450?
Also MACD crossed up on 25th May and is still positive.....
Here's GC Daily with 200 EMA and MACD - don't see it myself......http://screencast.com/t/KCRwrQkwB.
Also on the CCI all I see is a series of higher lows....... http://www.screencast.com/t/XogKn4RMtlPH

thanks - am always willing to learn and to be proved wrong

beeb
  • #7,092
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:51am Jun 10, 2011 6:51am
Quoting allngap
Daily CCI 60 uptrend line broken, please refer back to the previous 3 trendline break.

CCI(60) is 3months data and if the uptrend trendline is broken, it might be ugly to take LONG.

i'm slowly building up my short position waiting for the mega retracement to the daily EMA 200
The retests also have higher lows, looks like it is creeping up to break thru, but that is just a guess. Also, CCI? Really?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #7,093
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:54am Jun 10, 2011 6:54am
Quoting beeb
The 200 day EMA is at 1399 and hasn't been touched since April 2009. Is that your target or is 1450?
Also MACD crossed up on 25th May and is still positive.....
Here's GC Daily with 200 EMA and MACD - don't see it myself......http://screencast.com/t/KCRwrQkwB.

thanks

beeb

Good points Beeb, thanks for double checking what he was saying.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #7,094
  • Edited 7:09am Jun 10, 2011 6:59am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Good points Beeb, thanks for double checking what he was saying.
Post edited to include CCI

Sorry if I'm being a pain - I have no problem with discussing technical analysis and welcome positive input. By going over things with others I can recheck my own analysis and ensure that my trades have the best possibility of success.

However, analysis needs to be precise otherwise it is little more than unsupported assertion - which in turn I believe is slightly less useful than a chocolate teapot

beeb
  • #7,095
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:11am Jun 10, 2011 7:11am
Quoting beeb
The 200 day EMA is at 1399 and hasn't been touched since April 2009. Is that your target or is 1450?
Also MACD crossed up on 25th May and is still positive.....
Here's GC Daily with 200 EMA and MACD - don't see it myself......http://screencast.com/t/KCRwrQkwB.

thanks

beeb
when it finally retrace to the EMA 200, it might be 5weeks later, so the EMA 200 at that time wouldnt be 1399.
If this is a mega bull, it will find 1450 i guess, or max lowest to 1420.

cross zero point only short ?
for signs of weakness, you'll see the histogram drop below the moving average then slowly it both will point down and move towards zero line.
So earlier signal of weakness is already there.


@ LasVahGoose

I've tested CCI using CCI 40 and CCI 60.
it is quite accurate to say this, once the sloping up trendline broken, it will have to break another horizontal line. then only a downtrend is confirmed.

As you can see in the chart, it has already broken the sloping up (uptrend) trendline, and now going sideway.

right now, GOLD is squeezing @ between 1535 and 1550. if it breaks 1535, the pullback to EMA 200 is very likely to happen.

thats why i said i'm slowly building up my SHORT position because if it goes upward, max can reach 1575, and then pullback to EMA 200. but if it cannot break 1550, then it will find 1450.
  • #7,096
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:21am Jun 10, 2011 7:21am
Quoting allngap
when it finally retrace to the EMA 200, it might be 5weeks later, so the EMA 200 at that time wouldnt be 1399.
If this is a mega bull, it will find 1450 i guess, or max lowest to 1420.

cross zero point only short ?
for signs of weakness, you'll see the histogram drop below the moving average then slowly it both will point down and move towards zero line.
So earlier signal of weakness is already there.


@ LasVahGoose

I've tested CCI using CCI 40 and CCI 60.
it is quite accurate to say this, once the sloping up trendline broken, it will have...

Can't say I agree with this - you had better be pretty certain before shorting what even you call a "mega bull".....

There are no signals from rsi, macd, stochastics on the dailies that i can see. More importantly the uptrend is intact. The physical demand is very strong in London and the COTs figures are not shouting "bear" from the rooftops. With the possibility of QE3 around the corner I hope you use good money management......

Also don't know what you mean by "cross zero point only short"....

beeb
  • #7,097
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:23am Jun 10, 2011 7:23am
Quoting beeb
Post edited to include CCI

Sorry if I'm being a pain - I have no problem with discussing technical analysis and welcome positive input. By going over things with others I can recheck my own analysis and ensure that my trades have the best possibility of success.

However, analysis needs to be precise otherwise it is little more than unsupported assertion - which in turn I believe is slightly less useful than a chocolate teapot

beeb

ya, i do really think that sharing is the only way to improve. : )

your CCI setting is set at CCI 14, means about near to 3weeks of data. My CCI is set to CCI 60, means is about 3months of data.

If you do observe, each of the bull move ranges from about $90 to about $110. it will roughly take about 4weeks or so, which if you buy each dip, you'll be smiling. so my setting is meant to see whether is it still on this move up.
Or is it just waiting to get hammered down.

the CCI 14 is not sufficient to see whether it is still riding on this upward move i'd say.
  • #7,098
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:26am Jun 10, 2011 7:26am
Quoting allngap
ya, i do really think that sharing is the only way to improve. : )

your CCI setting is set at CCI 14, means about near to 3weeks of data. My CCI is set to CCI 60, means is about 3months of data.

If you do observe, each of the bull move ranges from about $90 to about $110. it will roughly take about 4weeks or so, which if you buy each dip, you'll be smiling. so my setting is meant to see whether is it still on this move up.
Or is it just waiting to get hammered down.

the CCI 14 is not sufficient to see whether it is still riding on this upward...

OK thanks for pointing that out - here's CCI 60 (I think)
http://www.screencast.com/t/w8DdrKmu

Still says nothing to me....

beeb
  • #7,099
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:33am Jun 10, 2011 7:33am
Quoting beeb
Can't say I agree with this - you had better be pretty certain before shorting what even you call a "mega bull".....

There are no signals from rsi, macd, stochastics on the dailies that i can see. More importantly the uptrend is intact. The physical demand is very strong in London and the COTs figures are not shouting "bear" from the rooftops. With the possibility of QE3 around the corner I hope you use good money management......

Also don't know what you mean by "cross zero point only short"....

beeb
or put it like this,
please shift your charts to weekly timeframe and with RSI (14).

see what happens when it reaches 70 level.

you'll see an engulfing bar down.


Gold is in a mega bull situation, but unfortunately it doesnt move up in a straight line. It moves in $100 then retrace and find support, then moves up another $100.

first wave was end of January, from 1320 to 1440 ($120 move up), then retrace to $1380 (pullback $50).

then after some consolidation. after breaking $1440, all the way to 1575 ($130), then retrace to $1470 ($100move down).

then 1470 to 1550 (now, $80) move up.


If you see the weekly chart RSI(14), whenever it is reaching 70, it is close to this pullback. Now it is over 75 at weekly chart. we are at the end of the uptrend. UPTREND EXHAUSTION is happening.
How much is this ? i'm guessing that it might be $100 range which is $1450.
  • #7,100
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:44am Jun 10, 2011 7:44am
Quoting allngap
or put it like this,
please shift your charts to weekly timeframe and with RSI (14).

see what happens when it reaches 70 level.

you'll see an engulfing bar down.


Gold is in a mega bull situation, but unfortunately it doesnt move up in a straight line. It moves in $100 then retrace and find support, then moves up another $100.

first wave was end of January, from 1320 to 1440 ($120 move up), then retrace to $1380 (pullback $50).

then after some consolidation. after breaking $1440, all the way to 1575 ($130), then retrace to $1470 ($100move...
my strategy is different, look monthly chart there is pullback after reach $250 to $300 retrace is $100 it happen in every 6th month but this time it was in 4th month because $300 happened earlier.
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