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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,341
  • May 12, 2011 10:08am May 12, 2011 10:08am
can you tell me
are you bearish side or bullish side in GOLD?


Quoting beeb
sorry ruff - are those action/reaction lines? if they're a fork and "ML" is Median Line - what are the coords?

also can you please respond to my comment about the 400MA being at 1258?

thanks

beeb
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #6,342
  • May 12, 2011 10:39am May 12, 2011 10:39am
Quoting XTrade
Yes - In one and out of another.

It is refreshing to look at a naked gold chart, then plot simple, major support and resistance and a few TLs and MAs after.

Gold has a tendency to move sideways a lot right through Trendlines, forks, channels and what have you.

I find the most impact when we have converging horizontal major support with
converging MA's and a major Trend line.

Weekly channel still intact....
Yes it is very refreshing to be able to make sense of price action with simple tools.

Just came to mind...

One added bonus of the pitchfork I think is the ability to have the lines in place ahead of price action, especially when it is about to turn. Not sure how that would be accomplished with channels or trendlines though, as lows or highs would be needed to begin those lines. The lines and indicators you mentioned are simple and very effective.

Whatever works is good martial arts I guess .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #6,343
  • May 12, 2011 10:55am May 12, 2011 10:55am
something serious happened to eu & usdx & may end the movements there & resume previous or good retracement possible & so to gold to carefull next , already hit sl at be profit level though ,next to watch before any action .gold still may be lagged behind before it happen though .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=441005
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #6,344
  • May 12, 2011 11:19am May 12, 2011 11:19am
Quoting khizer
if we were got strong us news broked 1475 support, but news as expected.

Means we will see may again test arround support than ------>>> targets.
Biradar, Do you have any indis. to trade Silver please? Whats your take on silver? long at the moment i think.
  • #6,345
  • Edited 11:44am May 12, 2011 11:41am | Edited 11:44am
NP.

Here are some of my standards. Simple - Old - and Powerful.

1. Support and Resistance - First and foremost, I always have supports and resistances stronger and older most important. Usually the price will revisit the same areas multiple times. Also important to know for times when we are in range. Stops and Take profits.

2. Moving averages. For Longer term use 50 - 100 - and 200.
When gold is trending nicely you will find some of these moving averages will be almost as straight and in tune as some of the trendlines drawn.
On shorter charts for scalping sometimes a combo of the 7 and 21 or variations.

3. Trendlines, - Channels, Forks. All Similar in essence and effective in targeting, moving support, order placement. Also signals of reversal and breakouts. New emerging trends

4. Price Action -And Volume - How many people are trading / open interest.
AND how is the market moving. 10 USD range or sideways. Buying dips off a trendline/ ma? Higher Highs Higher Lows? Broken support / free fall?
ALL indicators LAG - pure price action is basically the fasted indicator there is.

5. NEWS - NEWS - NEWS (and Currency fluctuations)- Always important in Gold. The Gold market can be very headline driven. FEAR, is perhaps one of the biggest market movers. But there are also always a variety of things going on in the work which now can affect the POG more than in times of past.

6. The USD. Always need to know what she is doing as gold is settled in dollars. THe strict inverse correlation is not as "strict" as it used to be But, yesterday is a prime example. USD up against all majors, Gold down, Crude Down, Stox and other commods down. Attention also to Oil and other Commodities as a whole market. Not just specifics.

7. Fractals - g@@gle it.

8. Chart Patterns - Lastly - I look for them on usually H1 and Up. Some of my favorites for Gold to play are
Symmetrical Triangles - Bullish Flags or Pennants - And the Cup and Handle.

---------------

Extras - I'll use these sometimes to enforce trade decisions.

Full Stochastic
Relative Strength Index
Alligator can be helpful in a trending market.



Quoting FX4Newbies
Yes it is very refreshing to be able to make sense of price action with simple tools.

Just came to mind...

One added bonus of the pitchfork I think is the ability to have the lines in place ahead of price action, especially when it is about to turn. Not sure how that would be accomplished with channels or trendlines though, as lows or highs would be needed to begin those lines. The lines and indicators you mentioned are simple and very effective.

Whatever works is good martial arts I guess .

FX4
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,346
  • May 12, 2011 12:06pm May 12, 2011 12:06pm
gold returns back to 1500 at last
what a fight!
and is till fighting hard
  • #6,347
  • May 12, 2011 12:06pm May 12, 2011 12:06pm
D1 PB is in process of forming, so close above 1497 today will actually indicate more upside on gold mid-term, if we close above 1497 today one could look to go long for 1540-1560, PB at a key level like this is very important on higher timeframe. 1481 is an important 50 fibo, so as a matter of fact closing way above it is a strong bullish sign. crude oil is also tanking higher and same PB D1 pattern is unveiling.

I do personally favor downside, since R/R wise it offers more potential, however I also stick with trade what you see strategy, right now charts are giving an idea for future PA.

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/901...frommoscow.png

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/2...rgangsters.png
  • #6,348
  • May 12, 2011 12:30pm May 12, 2011 12:30pm
"
When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.

The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.

When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.

The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.

Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.

Our feature on kitco breaks the change of the price of gold into 2 components. One part shows you how much of that change can be attributed to US Dollar strength, or lack of it. The other portion is indicative of how much the price changed as a result of normal trading. Interestingly whatever changes happen to the price of gold as a result of US Dollar strength/weakness also occurs to every other US Dollar denominated commodity by the exact same proportion."
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,349
  • May 12, 2011 12:30pm May 12, 2011 12:30pm
earlier on someone was telling me there is no relationship between usdx, metals, crude oil, here's a good quote for your reference then.

Quote
(Kitco News) -The crude oil market has rebounded on some short covering and bargain hunting buying interest, while the U.S. dollar index has turned lower on the daiy after sporting moderate gains early on. This has, in turn, prompted some fresh buying interest in the gold and silver markets. Look for the precious metals and other commodity markets to continue to closely track movements in the crude oil market and the U.S. dollar index.
  • #6,350
  • May 12, 2011 12:31pm May 12, 2011 12:31pm
Dollar Getting Dumped

Star of the Day NZD USD.

Going to wait for pullback and trade Asia.

Have to run out.

Gold getting some boost here. Looking to pop above 1515 in next sessions.

see ya guys later
GL
X
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,351
  • May 12, 2011 1:07pm May 12, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting beeb
sorry ruff - are those action/reaction lines? if they're a fork and "ML" is Median Line - what are the coords?

also can you please respond to my comment about the 400MA being at 1258?

thanks

beeb

could you please respond.....

thanks



beeb
  • #6,352
  • May 12, 2011 1:35pm May 12, 2011 1:35pm
Quote
could you please respond.....

sorry not much to comment on the forks, I just plot whatever suits the PA best, however I'm well aware of industry standards, as have studied babson, mikula, andrews, dologa, etc. I can say that out of the whole framework I like the action/reaction the most and typical setups (retest of ML for instance). Basically my take is that forks as a standalone tool for trading are not good enough, so you need confluence.

about that 400-MA, I'm not sure man, on my charts it came as 1395, also I use quarterly pivot @ 1395 for reference.

One more important point of gold / currencies etc / how they relate to futures/options contracts. For instance, 5-6 of May 2011, when Euro slipped like 400 pips in matter of hours, was actually a day of options/futures expiration, so that created very high volatility on the options markets, which in turn set off the domino on EUR USD and sent it 400 pips lower.

Same kinda deal applies to metals, however important key contracts are june contracts, which expire last two weeks of the month. That has two implications. First is that if todays D1 PB holds on crude/gold, we will see more upside. Second is that upon options expiration in june 2011 we will see very high volatility and it's quite reasonable to expect a sizeable correction due to profit taking on futures/options market in US.
  • #6,353
  • May 12, 2011 1:58pm May 12, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting ruffryders
earlier on someone was telling me there is no relationship between usdx, metals, crude oil, here's a good quote for your reference then.
I think you might be referring to me. Even if it isn't, I'll reply.
I said there was a link between the dollar index and gold because gold is priced in dollars. The absolute value of gold kind of remains static, so as the value of the dollar goes up, it costs less dollars to buy the gold.

I searched this topic and I found several, indeed quite a lot of stuff saying there was a "link" between oil, the dollar, gold the Dow Jones and probably some other stuff.
I could not find any clear reason given for this linkage outside of that which I have already discussed.

I cannot see why there would be greater or less demand for precious metals in line with oil. I have seen a couple of complicated explanations which were difficult to follow.

Mr Smith and Mr Jones get up in the morning. They always get up at the same time as each other. Does it follow there is a relationship? No.

We can see that commodities priced in dollars will move as the value of the dollar moves. They will both move at the same time and in similar ways.

What reason would there be for gold and oil to move together other than them being priced in dollars?

This is a genuine question - if anyone knows please explain and then we can all learn something new!
  • #6,354
  • May 12, 2011 2:05pm May 12, 2011 2:05pm
http://www.tradejuice.com/gold-oil/i...r_oil_gold.JPG

http://goldseek.com/news/EricHommelb...s/7-19eh/3.JPG

http://goldseek.com/news/EricHommelb...s/7-19eh/3.JPG

No debate just facts. Also if reputable clearance houses use this relationship for purposes of their trading, that also gives you some idea. The hedge fund, which I worked for some years ago also used this in their quantitative forecasting models.

So there is no reason to run hypothesis and t-tests on whether or not there is a relationship, just use whatever works for you. Currently usdx-gold-oil link gives me an edge in trading. whether or not that will work for someone else that I can't be sure about.
  • #6,355
  • Edited 2:44pm May 12, 2011 2:22pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting ruffryders
[IMG]
So there is no reason to run hypothesis and t-tests on whether or not...
Ok you are saying they tend to move together but you don't know why.
As I said it doesn't follow they are directly related. Gold goes up because oil goes up - they may both be directly related to a common factor.

Mr Smith and Jones both get up in the morning because the sun comes up.

Edit:
Just noticed the "linkage" between the two broke down between 2003 - 2006.
  • #6,356
  • May 12, 2011 2:36pm May 12, 2011 2:36pm
Quote
Over the last 50 years or so, gold and oil have generally moved together in terms of price, with a positive price correlation of over 80 percent.
no further comment needed. If you think some superbowl match outcomes can be correlated with gold/usdx movement as well as gold/oil correlation, than good for you, you got yourself a winning system.

if something doesn't quite add up, maybe you are missing important pieces of the puzzle, but it's never too late to catch up.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...eff042205.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...use090506.html
  • #6,357
  • May 12, 2011 2:48pm May 12, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting ruffryders
sorry not much to comment on the forks, I just plot whatever suits the PA best, however I'm well aware of industry standards, as have studied babson, mikula, andrews, dologa, etc. I can say that out of the whole framework I like the action/reaction the most and typical setups (retest of ML for instance). Basically my take is that forks as a standalone tool for trading are not good enough, so you need confluence.

about that 400-MA, I'm not sure man, on my charts it came as 1395, also I use quarterly pivot @ 1395 for reference.

One more important...

OK - I'm just finding it very hard to follow you....

You commented earlier that we were "heading to" 1395, now you say we are likely to see more upside....

You next quote a 400MA which is $150 dollars out....

Then you show lines which you comment on in terms of forks yet there are no fork coordinates available and say "sorry not much to comment on the forks, I just plot whatever suits the PA best, however I'm well aware of industry standards, as have studied babson, mikula, andrews, dologa, etc."

Thanks anyway....

beeb
  • #6,358
  • May 12, 2011 2:56pm May 12, 2011 2:56pm
Quote
You commented earlier that we were "heading to" 1395, now you say we are likely to see more upside....

PA tells you the story my friend. I do still hold the target for this quarter at 1395 at least, which is quarterly pivot.

HOWEVER, considering latest PA across gold/oil/silver markets and that important options/futures expiration date (june 2011) is still some weeks away, we could see a rally.

Previously I said that I favor shorts over longs, below 1474, currently I'm on the look out to go long and setting my alarms for market closing today / Asian session start to attempt buying on current retrace.

I already explained my reasoning by posting usdx / crude oil / gold charts.
If that is not sufficient for you to substantiate the case to go long on metals, then maybe you could post us your analysis, which would be perfectly fine with me as well.

thanks,
ruff
  • #6,359
  • May 12, 2011 3:18pm May 12, 2011 3:18pm
this describes PA on gold well for right now for me it's a preferred scenario. lock in gains above 1500 and then retest ML @ 1550.

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/1...m30paforks.png
  • #6,360
  • May 12, 2011 3:30pm May 12, 2011 3:30pm
My thoughts yesterday were for a down move, this indeed happened but it has been bought up aggresively forming a decent pin on the daily(assuming it holds for the next half hour).

I would have preferred to see it formed back at 1462 but there is an uptrend line and the 50day ema acting as support.

dabating a long trade.
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