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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,241
  • May 11, 2011 2:55pm May 11, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting XTrade
Dollar having a little rally today.
That's what I call an understatement

Profit Taking 2.0? I didn't expect another sell-off that strong, that soon. If this "Sell in the May" idea is true, maybe we have to expect another ones...


Quoting XTrade
Anyone trade USD/NOK?
No... on Sunday I almost shorted EUR/NOK (short Euro crisis, long oil), but I gave up the idea.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,242
  • May 11, 2011 3:19pm May 11, 2011 3:19pm
I would seriously love to buy silver right now, but my gold long from 1509 is not doing too hot. Best to not over-trade, rookie mistakes ive made in the past

Hopefully the Asian session can bring gold back up and bury the usdx again

Mitch
  • #6,243
  • May 11, 2011 3:23pm May 11, 2011 3:23pm
Does anyone know if a $1 drop/rise of the price of silver had the same result in trading forex back years ago as it does now? For example, if I have a $1000 SHORT on silver right now and it drops $1, that is equal to a 100% return.

The reason I am asking is the recent volatility in silver provides for some really good profits...if volatility goes back to what it had been months/years before, and a $1 drop in price held the same affect on positions, it would not be as attractive to trade. Scrolling back through the charts, $2+ daily bars were rare a while back...but recently $2-$4 pip daily bars have become a daily occurrence.

I've read some stuff and heard some people talk about margin hikes in silver and all of that...but I payed no attention to that as I don't use fundamentals at all besides having an idea when volatility will spike, so I am not sure if that has anything to do with what I am asking.
  • #6,244
  • May 11, 2011 3:43pm May 11, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting nebuman213
if I have a $1000 SHORT on silver right now and it drops $1, that is equal to a 100% return.
100% of what?

if you buy (or sell) X ounces and it goes up (or down) 1$/oz then you make X$ profit (or loss).
  • #6,245
  • May 11, 2011 4:15pm May 11, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting 7bit
100% of what?

if you buy (or sell) X ounces and it goes up (or down) 1$/oz then you make X$ profit (or loss).
100% of my position ($1000). In pips that is equivalent to 10,000 pips according to Oanda. I ignore all the extra decimal places and just think of 10,000 pips as 100 pips.

To make my question simpler, does a $1 drop today net you the same money trading with a Forex broker as a $1 drop did in say 2007. Sounds stupid and I figure the answer is obviously yes, but who knows.
  • #6,246
  • May 11, 2011 4:26pm May 11, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting nebuman213
Does anyone know if a $1 drop/rise of the price of silver had the same result in trading forex back years ago as it does now? For example, if I have a $1000 SHORT on silver right now and it drops $1, that is equal to a 100% return.
I think I understand what you mean. BUT... nothing ever changed. What really matters is the percentage of the daily move. If silver falls 10%, it means that your short will give you +10% on the lot size - your profit will depend on your LEVERAGE.

Yes, you can see $4 candles today... but remember that silver costs $35 now. When silver cost $9, a $1 candle represented the same PERCENTAGE of change. The bigger numbers from today are just a psychological effect.


Quoting nebuman213
The reason I am asking is the recent volatility in silver provides for some really good profits....
... and losses
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,247
  • May 11, 2011 4:38pm May 11, 2011 4:38pm
Im afraid I cant not be slightly bearish at the moment, in my view the current PA looks weak, Today we have formed a bearish outside bar, although not a signal i usually trade.

I would not be surprized to see gold back at 1460. Still no trades in gold or silver....
Attached Image
  • #6,248
  • May 11, 2011 4:59pm May 11, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting nebuman213
100% of my position ($1000). In pips that is equivalent to 10,000 pips according to Oanda. I ignore all the extra decimal places and just think of 10,000 pips as 100 pips.

To make my question simpler, does a $1 drop today net you the same money trading with a Forex broker as a $1 drop did in say 2007. Sounds stupid and I figure the answer is obviously yes, but who knows.
If your Position Size is $1000 and Silver moves 10% in your Direction you make 10% of that $1000 = $100

If your Account Size is $20 (leverage 50 X $20), theoretically you can make 500% or even more profit in this trade.
If you're lucky this works once and on your next trade you blow your account.
  • #6,249
  • May 11, 2011 6:13pm May 11, 2011 6:13pm
Listen to what the man has said that I have put in bold - words of wisdom,now I will try to tackle your post, yet it is most confusing nebuam123.

Quoting pipnapper
If your Position Size is $1000 and Silver moves 10% in your Direction you make 10% of that $1000 = $100

If your Account Size is $20 (leverage 50 X $20), theoretically you can make 500% or even more profit in this trade.
If you're lucky this works once and on your next trade you blow your account.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,250
  • May 11, 2011 6:22pm May 11, 2011 6:22pm
Pips = the FOURTH decimal place.

1.0009 would be 9 pips higher than 1.0000

Many brokers are now quoting in fractional pips

or to the 5th decimal ie; 1.00095 would equal 9.5 pips.

OR IN OTHER WORDS> OANDA is Calling - TICKS - > pips.

1000 TICKS in GOLD = 100 pips in Gold which = 1.00 USD in CASH movement

Quoting nebuman213
100% of my position ($1000). In pips that is equivalent to 10,000 pips according to Oanda. I ignore all the extra decimal places and just think of 10,000 pips as 100 pips.

To make my question simpler, does a $1 drop today net you the same money trading with a Forex broker as a $1 drop did in say 2007. Sounds stupid and I figure the answer is obviously yes, but who knows.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,251
  • May 11, 2011 6:40pm May 11, 2011 6:40pm
Hi all. I'd like to start off by apologizing for not having an actual contribution to FF on my first post..

I see alot of terms/acronyms thrown around that I don't have a grasp on.. I can look up many things on the internet as I see them, but due to the number and varying quality of materials online I've had a difficult time actually putting it all together..

That said, I'm looking for some recommendations on a TA book... I don't think I need something as dumbed down as a 'for dummies' publication, but I do need something that contains layman explanations for many of the concepts covered.. (i.e. not overly technical) Something that starts at square one and builds up.

I'd also like to thank all of the contributors (and moderator!) on the forum for their input and unique analysis...

Thanks in advance for your input.

-D
  • #6,252
  • May 11, 2011 6:52pm May 11, 2011 6:52pm
1496 Hit.

Back above 1500.

Should get a nice boost up here...

Quoting XTrade
Looks like next stop may be 1496 again....

Dollar having a little rally today.

Need to run out.

Anyone trade USD/NOK?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,253
  • May 11, 2011 7:40pm May 11, 2011 7:40pm
Let's see if asia repeats last nights boost. Some people are actually calling this a secondary top and are looking at 1400...
  • #6,254
  • Edited 8:01pm May 11, 2011 7:47pm | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting highlander2
Im afraid I cant not be slightly bearish at the moment, in my view the current PA looks weak, Today we have formed a bearish outside bar, although not a signal i usually trade.

I would not be surprized to see gold back at 1460. Still no trades in gold or silver....
After going long and having a small profit on the day it got blown away pretty damn fast. Hmmm I am long again from the bottom - here goes again.

This is a bearish outside bar on the daily.
One of the James16 PA bars.
However as a bar to trade short on this is not one of them.

Firstly it sits on the 1500 - a big round number.

If you were trading short on this you are pretty much trading into the BRN and that is not usually a good play.

The BEOB did not close beneath the BRN and so the bearish move was insufficiently strong to get price under 1500 and keep it there.

If the BEOB had closed below the 1500 this might well have been another story indicating bearish strength.
  • #6,255
  • May 11, 2011 7:55pm May 11, 2011 7:55pm
XTrade

There was a webinar on the James16 private site last night where Mike was talking about USD/NOK.

Personally the way it is set up on my platform it is too rich for me and could blow an account fast if it went against you even slightly.
On the weekly Mike had taken a trade long as I remember.

If you look left there is a support level at the top of the big bullish bar.
The question is, can price get through that - if there is a break of the bar upside it will have to do this. There is a doji on the weekly right now and price has retraced up the bar after drifting down.

Mike is usually picky.
I suggest you go on the J16 forum and ask Mike about the trade, he will tell you best.
  • #6,256
  • May 11, 2011 9:38pm May 11, 2011 9:38pm
Hello all,

Haven't been by for a bit. Here is the silver chart I have been watching. You might find it interesting.

Take care,

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag-usd may 11-11.gif Size: 22 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #6,257
  • May 11, 2011 9:43pm May 11, 2011 9:43pm
closed my long in gold at 1504.5 - it had been running up a trendline but then walked out. At the moment it could go either way for me and so better out.
  • #6,258
  • Edited 10:03pm May 11, 2011 9:46pm | Edited 10:03pm
Here's are two charts of gold. The first one I have been watching. Just added the red fork on the second to bring things a little more current.

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-usd may 11-11-2.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-usd may 11-11-3.gif Size: 26 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #6,259
  • May 11, 2011 10:15pm May 11, 2011 10:15pm
have to pass 1508.07 pivot...
  • #6,260
  • May 11, 2011 11:12pm May 11, 2011 11:12pm
Price seems to be consolidating in 10 to 12 USD range around psycho level of 1500....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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